5 replies to this topic

[JursyGurl]

Hi,

On Monday, I started getting email alerts from the NWS. I signed-up for alerts years ago and they usually just come in during the hurricane season. I was pretty surprised to see these coming in - at this time of year! They are: "Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook" (see attached below.)

My question is:

At this time of year, is it possible for this type of tropical moisture to get sucked up into the Tri-states area's weather systems, like they do in the summer months? Or, are there seasonal changes like prevailing winds, or water temperature changes that prevent this from happening?

As these alerts were coming in, I could only imagine if they continued and the moisture made it into the storm coming across the southern tier... would it be a snowcane? lol! Just kidding, or not.

Anyway, it's over. But, here are the alerts I rec'd:


---------------------------------------
Mon, 20 Dec 2010 14:54:35 -0600

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202053
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PASSES OVER
OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTH WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FUTURE SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN


--------------------------------------
Tue, 21 Dec 2010 07:00:54 -0600

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211300
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AND
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



---------------------------------------
Tue, 21 Dec 2010 14:49:54 -0600

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212049
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF BARBADOS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AND WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Regards,
Denise

[JursyGurl]

I guess this is a stupid question - lot's of views, but no answers... Mr. Moderator, please delete my topic. I'll stick to just reading.

[wxtracker93]

I would guess that it's not a stupid question, but that most of those who have read it -- myself included -- are unable to answer it. Certainly thought provoking, though.

[NittanyLion]

Short answer: Yes. Most storms that form along the Gulf Coast or even big ones along the east coast have a moisture source from the tropics. See: The Perfect Storm. http://en.wikipedia...._of_the_Century



Also, note the composite of all the Great Interior Northeast US Snowstorms:


Precipitable water plot shows it coming from the tropics.

[lovethesnow515]

JursyGurl - nice too see you still reading the forum. I do the same - mostly read - post once in a great while. I think of the members that signed up in the beginning of this forum (from the Ch. 7 weatherboard).

How are you doing? I know you had some health issues - hope you are doing well. If I remember, you also had a few doggies - I remember your posting pictures of them. You love to take pictures, if I remember.

Have a good holiday!

[weathergeek87]

lovethesnow515, on Dec 24 2010, 09:26 PM, said:

JursyGurl - nice too see you still reading the forum. I do the same - mostly read - post once in a great while. I think of the members that signed up in the beginning of this forum (from the Ch. 7 weatherboard).

How are you doing? I know you had some health issues - hope you are doing well. If I remember, you also had a few doggies - I remember your posting pictures of them. You love to take pictures, if I remember.

Have a good holiday!

Yes, Jursygurl, hope all is well. And there is no such thing as a stupid question.