1308 replies to this topic

[wxtracker93]

Topic will open at 3 4 a.m.

[Virgaman]

cloudy and actually windier than i expected up here in poughkeepsie 515 am, 20.1 degrees

[njblizzard]

Btw, 6z Nam and Gfs both are bit east and Nam has more precip then GFS.

[yankee2274]

You guys each have to read your NOAA forecast discussions. Its actually an exciting read because of the historic nature of this storm. I won't paste mine, but will just show one part to see what they are thinking about in terms of ratios.

WE UTILIZED SNOW
RATIOS OF 13-15:1 FOR THE EVENT FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT
NORTH AND WEST. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST WE USED 10-13:1.

More South it appears you get more precip, but ratios are slightly lower. Is this because the heavier winds?

[weathergeek87]

yankee2274, on Dec 26 2010, 11:41 AM, said:

You guys each have to read your NOAA forecast discussions. Its actually an exciting read because of the historic nature of this storm. I won't paste mine, but will just show one part to see what they are thinking about in terms of ratios.

WE UTILIZED SNOW
RATIOS OF 13-15:1 FOR THE EVENT FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT
NORTH AND WEST. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST WE USED 10-13:1.

More South it appears you get more precip, but ratios are slightly lower. Is this because the heavier winds?

It's the warmer temperatures south of Albany.

[robbbs]

weathergeek87, on Dec 26 2010, 10:43 AM, said:

It's the warmer temperatures south of Albany.

Density ratios will be impacted by both temps and wind levels (wind normally not much of a factor but this one's an exception due to high speeds).

[metfan4life]

6z GFS ensemble mean still calls for a strong bombing low east of LI

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12024.gif

[yankee2274]

thanks weathergeek and robbs. Sounds like the heaviest precip is when it is dark. for a majority of the area from 5 PM on.
Radar is starting to really fill in South.

[robbbs]

njblizzard, on Dec 26 2010, 10:35 AM, said:

Btw, 6z Nam and Gfs both are bit east and Nam has more precip then GFS.

Didn't look at the gfs yet but nam did go a tad east; both cut back on precip somewhat. Meanwhile, both sref and ruc shfted a bit west. Apart from seeing what the 12z main runs will show to see if any model adjustments, it's nowcast mode, though I fear we'll get the usual assortment of false alarms, trends, etc. Should be fun (hopefully).

[robbbs]

yankee2274, on Dec 26 2010, 10:49 AM, said:

thanks weathergeek and robbs. Sounds like the heaviest precip is when it is dark. for a majority of the area from 5 PM on.Radar is starting to really fill in South.

Seems to have been the case with nearly every big snow event I remember.

[yankee2274]

Using the 6 hour radar prediction map from weather channel, you can start to see the precip build in a bit to the west, but still looks like it will be a sharp precip cutoff, especially in Pennsylvania. Also, not much snow in an part of NY until after noon.

http://www.weather.c...eractive/?role=

[robbbs]

SUNY mm5 model crawls the low as it bombs from off south NJ coast to just east of Montauk. That would bury entire region if it verified. Would be perfect timing and low placment for max impact.

[snowz]

robbbs, on Dec 26 2010, 06:09 AM, said:

SUNY mm5 model crawls the low as it bombs from off south NJ coast to just east of Montauk. That would bury entire region if it verified. Would be perfect timing and low placment for max impact.

does this mean we have snow most of the day monday?

[mphamma9]

I know it's a little gutsy, but I'm worried about that intense banding later tonight. Here's the totals I'm going with...obviously many of you will want to lower some of these amounts...but I really don't think this will be too far off. Not too worried about mixing as of now, but left a lower end for Eastern LI if that happens.

http://hammerweather.blogspot.com/2010/12/...for-winter.html

[Virgaman]

yankee2274, on Dec 26 2010, 10:59 AM, said:

Using the 6 hour radar prediction map from weather channel, you can start to see the precip build in a bit to the west, but still looks like it will be a sharp precip cutoff, especially in Pennsylvania. Also, not much snow in an part of NY until after noon.

http://www.weather.c...eractive/?role=

yankee , keep in mind we are NORTH of the storm and in a good area here in the mid hudson valley, we are far enough south to get the heavier bands of snow as theyh will pivot northwest in our area, and far enough north to get good snow ratios, we are at 19.2 right now so this should be good

[Virgaman]

mphamma9, on Dec 26 2010, 11:41 AM, said:

I know it's a little gutsy, but I'm worried about that intense banding later tonight. Here's the totals I'm going with...obviously many of you will want to lower some of these amounts...but I really don't think this will be too far off. Not too worried about mixing as of now, but left a lower end for Eastern LI if that happens.

http://hammerweather.blogspot.com/2010/12/...for-winter.html

your saying 4 to 8 inches far north and west? you mean the mid hudson valley? up here they are predicting 8 to 14 inches, please be more specific with your north and west

[mphamma9]

Virgaman, on Dec 26 2010, 11:50 AM, said:

your saying 4 to 8 inches far north and west? you mean the mid hudson valley? up here they are predicting 8 to 14 inches, please be more specific with your north and west

Sure, sorry about that. I just changed the post to add Hudson Valley. I usually just talk about the city and Long Island, so when I wrote N&W I was just trying to show the idea that this precip tails off as you go further north and further west, as is the case with most coastal storms.

But, for HV I'd go with that 10-15" range, but past New Paltz or so, start to bring those totals down a bit..

[mphamma9]

These wind gusts are going to be something else on Long Island! What do you guys think the top wind gust will be about?? I wouldn't be shocked at all if it neared Cat 1 strength..

[Virgaman]

thanks lol, sometimes us hudson valley people feel like a lost child here cause we hear more of new jersey and nyc and li lol

[njblizzard]

robbbs, on Dec 26 2010, 05:51 AM, said:

Didn't look at the gfs yet but nam did go a tad east; both cut back on precip somewhat. Meanwhile, both sref and ruc shfted a bit west. Apart from seeing what the 12z main runs will show to see if any model adjustments, it's nowcast mode, though I fear we'll get the usual assortment of false alarms, trends, etc. Should be fun (hopefully).

Kind of worry that it's been east trend with nam and gfs ops.