544 replies to this topic

[lawnboy11]

Hello everyone,

The infamous Henry M. is mentioning possibilities for the end of next week (Jan 20/21st ish).

What, if anything can you guys tell me about this?

Be nice to Henry, I'm just asking if your crystal balls forsee more snow for NYC/LI.

Thanks in advance....

PS- I do snow removal on Long Island and wanted to tell you guys- Met Fan, Robbs, Ice, etc etc. that I find this site and your posts very useful for planning purposes, education and entertainment too! So, thank you all.

[SAMC]

there is a suggestion of a coastal followed by some major cold air with highs in the teens on the coast.

[TatamyPA]

lawnboy11, on Jan 15 2011, 10:15 AM, said:

Hello everyone,

The infamous Henry M. is mentioning possibilities for the end of next week (Jan 20/21st ish).

What, if anything can you guys tell me about this?

Be nice to Henry, I'm just asking if your cystal balls forsee more snow for NYC/LI.

Thanks in advance....

PS- I do snow removal on Long Island and wanted to tell you guys- Met Fan, Robbs, Ice, etc etc. that I find this site and your posts very useful for planning purposes and entertainment too! So, thank you all.

For the 21st the 0z GFS is showing the passage of a clipper system. This system is progged to pass well to our north and with this type of track we do not typically get too much precip. The 0z Euro on the other hand is spinning up a system off the SE coast and it's progged to move NE to a position east of the benchmark (Lat 40 north / Long 70 west - to put it briefly the centers of storms that pass east of here do not generally have too much impact on NYC metro while the centers of storms that pass west of there do). This outcome does not have much model support right now so it is considered a low probability event.

[shark253]

lawnboy11, on Jan 15 2011, 04:15 PM, said:

Hello everyone,

The infamous Henry M. is mentioning possibilities for the end of next week (Jan 20/21st ish).

What, if anything can you guys tell me about this?

Be nice to Henry, I'm just asking if your cystal balls forsee more snow for NYC/LI.

Thanks in advance....

PS- I do snow removal on Long Island and wanted to tell you guys- Met Fan, Robbs, Ice, etc etc. that I find this site and your posts very useful for planning purposes and entertainment too! So, thank you all.

This is one week away. Tune back next week around Thursday. Models cannot even predict a day from now what will happen and you are asking the board what kind of weather there will be in a week from now. Give me a break here.

[lawnboy11]

shark253, on Jan 15 2011, 10:55 AM, said:

This is one week away. Tune back next week around Thursday. Models cannot even predict a day from now what will happen and you are asking the board what kind of weather there will be in a week from now. Give me a break here.

Whoa there fella...

I get all that, just wanted to see if anything was on your "radar" for late next week since you guys (most of you) seem to know what you are talking about.

Thanks for the first two replies.

Number three is a meany. If you don't like it, don't waste your time replying. Sheeesh! lol

thanks tatamy- I get the benchmark idea thanks to reading this forum the last few winters- I've been learning a lot here.

[weathergeek87]

shark253, on Jan 15 2011, 03:55 PM, said:

This is one week away. Tune back next week around Thursday. Models cannot even predict a day from now what will happen and you are asking the board what kind of weather there will be in a week from now. Give me a break here.

Shark - no reason to snap at him as it was a simple question; whether or not the models still see something for next weekend. He wasn't asking for a detailed forecast. Really no reason for an attitude as he is a new poster with just 6 posts.

Lawnboy - Welcome to the board; and don't let anyone discourage you from posting any questions you may have. Most are very receptive to any questions thrown out there.

[SAMC]

IGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH
THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE N...AND THE ECMWF...WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE CMC-GLOBAL (ALBEIT A BIT SLOWER)...DEVELOPING A
LOW OFF THE SE COAST...AND TRACKING IT NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN SUPPORT FROM THE CMC-GLOBAL AND
BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF OF LATE VS THE GFS...HAVE OPTED
FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON BEGINS TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY.

[robbbs]

JB is honking big time. Afternoon update says the worst blockbuster snowstorm of them all thus far is coming to the northeast at the end of next week. A huge storm, as big as we've had, but will also be followed by brutal arctic air, unlike the others.

[bm55]

robbbs, on Jan 15 2011, 03:10 PM, said:

JB is honking big time. Afternoon update says the worst blockbuster snowstorm of them all thus far is coming to the northeast at the end of next week. A huge storm, as big as we've had, but will also be followed by brutal arctic air, unlike the others.

Whoaaaaaaaaa!

[forte408]

Aggressive call from Jb. Especially with the storms we've already seen!

[rgwp96]

robbbs, on Jan 15 2011, 03:10 PM, said:

JB is honking big time. Afternoon update says the worst blockbuster snowstorm of them all thus far is coming to the northeast at the end of next week. A huge storm, as big as we've had, but will also be followed by brutal arctic air, unlike the others.

guess he needs some more new members

[robbbs]

LC also on board for a "mega-storm" in the northeast next weekend. What a winter this would be if yet another blockbuster occurs.

[njblizzard]

robbbs, on Jan 15 2011, 03:10 PM, said:

JB is honking big time. Afternoon update says the worst blockbuster snowstorm of them all thus far is coming to the northeast at the end of next week. A huge storm, as big as we've had, but will also be followed by brutal arctic air, unlike the others.

Only three footer can top dec 26th storm here in central NJ.

[jfar57]

njblizzard, on Jan 15 2011, 08:25 PM, said:

Only three footer can top dec 26th storm here in central NJ.

In Morris county I only need an 8 incher. I wouldn't mind 2 inches tues with a mix ofa bit sleet, then a tad more snow. Whiten everything up, then dump 18 over the weekend. Another week or two of crisp, cold air, then progressive warming to an early spring

[TatamyPA]

Where's Anthony today?

12z Euro shows a 989mb center just south of LI - implies rain for coastal areas, snow well to the N and W.

12z GFS - OTS

12z Nogaps - light snow event

12z Euro ensembles are south of the OP run

12z GFS ensembles are north and west of the OP run

12z GGEM would imply a rain event - it does not show an intense system

12z GGEM ensembles are south and east of the OP run

18z DGEX does not show much of anything

12z JMA shows the system forming in the lower Mississippi Valley - implies at least a light snow event for us

Let's watch the models over the next few days and see where this goes. It looks like the Euro is taking the lead with this system. On to the 0z runs.

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

TatamyPA, on Jan 15 2011, 08:54 PM, said:

Where's Anthony today?

12z Euro shows a 989mb center just south of LI - implies rain for coastal areas, snow well to the N and W.

12z GFS - OTS

12z Nogaps - light snow event

12z Euro ensembles are south of the OP run

12z GFS ensembles are north and west of the OP run

12z GGEM would imply a rain event - it does not show an intense system

12z GGEM ensembles are south and east of the OP run

18z DGEX does not show much of anything

12z JMA shows the system forming in the lower Mississippi Valley - implies at least a light snow event for us

Let's watch the models over the next few days and see where this goes. It looks like the Euro is taking the lead with this system. On to the 0z runs.

No.

Coastal areas do not get above 30 degrees on the 12Z run, even with the low track. Basically implies an ice storm, as 850 temps warm during the storm.

[robbbs]

LC's newsletter tonight mentions much about the potential big hit late next week. He does say that the major I95 cities are right on the fence between rain, mix, and heavy snow and a 50 miles jog either way will have huge implications. Says this will be a huge precip event and those that get all snow will be buried. He currently favors the biggest snow hit in the western burbs of DC, Philly, NYC, to Boston but cautions that changes are likely this far out. Looks like a week of model watching again.

[metfan4life]

0z GFS has the miller B for next Friday

It just missed the phase. Almost a big storm on this run. Just a light to moderate snowfall.

[icehater]

I was excited about late next week yesterday evening and may have noted it in the the January 18th thread and I also have little doubt it would be all snow but in these situations with arctic air rushing in the storm tends to move fast and often too far offshore. Interesting to see JB honking as he obviously thinks the arctic jet digs deep and bombs a monster storm near the gulf. We'll see.

[metfan4life]

MECS at 174 hours

990 low east of Atlantic City at 172 hours.

984 low on the tip of LI at hour 184

Big snowstorm from D.C to NYC.