453 replies to this topic

[metfan4life]

The signals are not favorable for the coast for the foreseeable future. I think the pattern gets favorable again by the end of this month.

I was just speaking to Larry Cosgrove on facebook and he says that he does not like what he sees for the east until late February , early March. Winter looks to be done for the foreseeable future

[snowz]

metfan4life, on Feb 1 2011, 02:06 PM, said:

The signals are not favorable for the coast for the foreseeable future. I think the pattern gets favorable again by the end of this month.

I was just speaking to Larry Cosgrove on facebook and he says that he does not like what he sees for the east until late February , early March. Winter looks to be done for the foreseeable future

Time will tell but a return to near normal temps does not signal the end of winter in my mind

[Jimrin1967]

I had said from the onset I think this is going to be one of those winters where, while there will be a break, the March and even into April period could be very wintry

[icehater]

Jimrin1967, on Feb 1 2011, 02:14 PM, said:

I had said from the onset I think this is going to be one of those winters where, while there will be a break, the March and even into April period could be very wintry

Last thing in the world I want. Would much rather having a colder snowy February.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Feb 1 2011, 02:17 PM, said:

Last thing in the world I want. Would much rather having a colder snowy February.

Totally agree. Once March comes it doesn't have the feel of winter anymore, and snow usually disappears in a few days with the higher sun angle. Plus, good patterns often go to waste w/ cold, rainy nor'easters in the March 15-April 15 period, arguable the worst time of year weather wise from our perspective (boring).

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on Feb 1 2011, 02:21 PM, said:

Totally agree. Once March comes it doesn't have the feel of winter anymore, and snow usually disappears in a few days with the higher sun angle. Plus, good patterns often go to waste w/ cold, rainy nor'easters in the March 15-April 15 period, arguable the worst time of year weather wise from our perspective (boring).

Storm,

The late December and ensuing storms and the cold weather finally gave is what we always wanted down here - deep lasting snows during low sun angles. I can't melt anything on the north side of my house. The only bad thing about this winter is we barely missed a white christmas. But I think we'll take a 2-3' boxing day storm every winter as a payment for that.

[metfan4life]

Jimrin1967, on Feb 1 2011, 02:14 PM, said:

I had said from the onset I think this is going to be one of those winters where, while there will be a break, the March and even into April period could be very wintry

I can see that happening

[snowz]

personally I think it is being oversold that February will not have winter - we are trusting JB who has been wrong on every long-range call this winter - he first said no winter in January - wrong and sold Feb as very cold now he is wrong again????

[metfan4life]

-EPO is going to develop

[icehater]

snowz, on Feb 1 2011, 02:41 PM, said:

personally I think it is being oversold that February will not have winter - we are trusting JB who has been wrong on every long-range call this winter - he first said no winter in January - wrong and sold Feb as very cold now he is wrong again????

I'm not trusting anybody. I'm looking at the data. I would never write it off and these guys are known for gigantic mistakes because of their love of headlines but the signals of continuous cold and storminess are not there.

[forte408]

Ice, they aren't there today, but they were just late last week. Goes to show how meaningless long term outlooks are, especially since just last week people were talking about February being active and cold.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Feb 1 2011, 02:24 PM, said:

Storm,

The late December and ensuing storms and the cold weather finally gave is what we always wanted down here - deep lasting snows during low sun angles. I can't melt anything on the north side of my house. The only bad thing about this winter is we barely missed a white christmas. But I think we'll take a 2-3' boxing day storm every winter as a payment for that.

Ice,

I was thinking that as well, this winter has basically been our ideal with snow cover from late dec until early Feb. Yeah the White Christmas would've been nice but as you said, I'll take a 25" blizzard any day of the week.

Today's the 38th consecutive day with snow on the ground of 1"+ in the area! And I think at least half of those days featured 12"+ snowpack, probably up there at the top of the list. I know 1947-48, 1977-78, 1993-94, and 1995-96 all had long duration snow pack, but I think we may have beaten those years in terms of DEPTH for consecutive days. Very deep snow for a large chunk of the meteorological winter.

[Stormchaser]

forte408, on Feb 1 2011, 02:52 PM, said:

Ice, they aren't there today, but they were just late last week. Goes to show how meaningless long term outlooks are, especially since just last week people were talking about February being active and cold.

Forte -- I had Feb as the one warmer than normal month in my winter outlook due to the expectation of blocking breaking down and Nina signal dominating, so if we do indeed get a 1-2 week thaw this month, it would be on track with my original ideas. February is usually the toughest month to get sustained cold in a strong nina. And January was warmer than December relative to normal as I thought as well. NYC finished the month at -2.3 I believe? Contrast to -4.5 in Dec.

[forte408]

Yeah storm, but as recent as last week, JB was honking for extended cold through February, no end in site, as were other mets, along with many on this board. Now JB is saying it may hit 70 in DC this month.

[Stormchaser]

forte408, on Feb 1 2011, 03:10 PM, said:

Yeah storm, but as recent as last week, JB was honking for extended cold through February, no end in site, as were other mets, along with many on this board. Now JB is saying it may hit 70 in DC this month.

Well I can't defend JB, his track record this winter has been nothing short of terrible, flip-flopping so much. I know there were others as you said, and I guess that's the beauty of LT forecasting -- everyone interprets the pattern in their own way (or maybe what they want for some).

[Jimrin1967]

I have to give JB credit in that he admitted he was wrong and made sweeping changes. That doesn't happen very often. He even admitted being perplexed by the pattern. I think while there may be a lull, winter will come back strong. I forget what year it was...maybe 1983...we got 10 inches of snow in northeast PA around April 10 or so. As was mentioned it was gone in a day and half, but what a site it was!!

[Jimrin1967]

Why do I sense a Robbbs long-term forecasting comment coming? LOL

[icehater]

Jimrin1967, on Feb 1 2011, 03:46 PM, said:

Why do I sense a Robbbs long-term forecasting comment coming? LOL

Robbbs big snow call has verified!! So I am speaking up on his behalf. Lord only knows what science he used but does it matter. He was right and had the best LT forecast of them all by a mile.

[lab94]

icehater, on Feb 1 2011, 04:17 PM, said:

Robbbs big snow call has verified!! So I am speaking up on his behalf. Lord only knows what science he used but does it matter. He was right.

I busted!!1 He went by the size of the size of squirrels testicles and the size of the tails. Not joking, he just wont admits it

[robbbs]

Jimrin1967, on Feb 1 2011, 08:46 PM, said:

Why do I sense a Robbbs long-term forecasting comment coming? LOL

I'm working on it. Lol. BTW, I posted this on another thread also. JB is not exactly saying winter is over in the east as some are suggesting. He simply said that he thinks the main focus of the worst weather is more likely to be in the midwest versus the east. He also said he sees a pattern flip to mild "in about 15 to 20 days". That gets us to about the 3 week point of February. The calendar is what it is. Meteorological winter is over only one week after. He also said the pattern change doesn't mean there will be no more snowfalls in the east. Reports of the end of winter are greatly exagerrated.