28 replies to this topic

[Stormchaser]

Much cooler overall for the US, but still warm in the South and East...


http://www.lightinthestorm.com/


Comments/feedback/questions welcome.

[satellite_eyes]

Great job Storm. Nice to hear there is at least a chance of a mostly 'normal' summer. Would never expect a repeat of last year.

I like how your outlook is concise and to the point and has good support and reasoning. The maps are great. Also liked the sneak peek into next winter.

[terryjohnson16]

I think that with all this rain coming, it might be preparing us for a drought, and/or hot summer.

[vascudave]

terryjohnson16, on May 17 2011, 08:46 AM, said:

I think that with all this rain coming, it might be preparing us for a drought, and/or hot summer.

or.... the end of the world!!! mwahhhhhh!

storm, nice job as usual, last year you did pretty well(if i remember)
good luck

[icehater]

Good job Storm. If it ends up +2 degrees, as is possible in your outlook, that is a warm summer with above normao 90+ days. Once this rain event ends temps here are going to get quite summery for a stretch reaching upper 70's to mid 80's here in CNJ. That will sput us well above normal for days on end and may be a hint of the dominating summer pattern.

[forte408]

Please no repeat of last summer! It was just too hot.

[Stormchaser]

Thanks guys! It definitely won't be a repeat of last summer, much wetter as well. But I do think the high humidity we've seen this May is a precursor to the very tropical summer we should see. Probably a lot of high-min nights, and nowhere near as many extreme heat days as last year. By that I mean many days where it's 85-90 and 70-75 or higher at night.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on May 17 2011, 09:51 AM, said:

Good job Storm. If it ends up +2 degrees, as is possible in your outlook, that is a warm summer with above normao 90+ days. Once this rain event ends temps here are going to get quite summery for a stretch reaching upper 70's to mid 80's here in CNJ. That will sput us well above normal for days on end and may be a hint of the dominating summer pattern.

Ice, strongly agree, in fact I could see 90 early/mid next week.

[Stormchaser]

forte408, on May 17 2011, 01:09 PM, said:

Please no repeat of last summer! It was just too hot.

If things turn out as modelled, we could see a pretty similar evolution to early June 2008, which is my favorite analog for the upcoming summer. Current LR guidance signals the potential for a major Sonoran heat release event w/ > 20c 850mb temps ballooning eastward around the upper level ridge, which could mean temps in the 90s. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[terryjohnson16]

Stormchaser, on May 21 2011, 10:09 PM, said:

If things turn out as modelled, we could see a pretty similar evolution to early June 2008, which is my favorite analog for the upcoming summer. Current LR guidance signals the potential for a major Sonoran heat release event w/ > 20c 850mb temps ballooning eastward around the upper level ridge, which could mean temps in the 90s. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I want a summer like last year, especially after the brutal cold we encountered this past fall/winter.

[terryjohnson16]

Another forecast:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/stor...2011-summer.asp

[Stormchaser]

Verification: Summer 2011

Below was the conclusion/numbers issued back in May for this summer.

"Conclusion:
Summer 2011 should be warmer than normal in the Northeast, with the biggest heat occurring in the front part of the summer, and the coolest temperatures in August. Precipitation will be greater than normal for the majority of the Northeast for June-July-August. In addition, I anticipate this summer to be more humid than is considered “normal” due in large part to the already very warm/moist Gulf and Atlantic. An overall warm, humid, wet summer should be on the way.

NYC projected temp departures
June: +2 to +3
July: 0 to +1
August: -1 to -2
Overall Summer departures: 0 to +1
Precipitation: Above to well above normal"


The idea that the front half of the summer would be much warmer than the second worked out well, along with the forecast of above to well above normal rainfall.

Actual / Forecast temp departures for NYC:

June: +1.1 / +2.5
July: +3.7 / +0.5
August: +0.1 / -1.5
Overall: +1.6 / 0 to +1

Grades:
June - B
July - D
August - B
Monthly grade - C+
Precip grade: A
Overall JJA Grade: B

Final Summer 2011 grade: B

Comments/grades/criticism welcome. Now onto winter! Only a month or so until outlooks will be rolling out.

[terryjohnson16]

Could still use a few more days/weeks/months of temps in the 80s and 90s. lol

[satellite_eyes]

I wouldn't mind 70s and 80s for another 5 weeks or so. 80s might be pushing it though.

This has been the nicest rainy summer of all time LOL.

[devilsfan0405]

satellite_eyes, on Sep 6 2011, 12:12 PM, said:

I wouldn't mind 70s and 80s for another 5 weeks or so. 80s might be pushing it though.

This has been the nicest rainy summer of all time LOL.

True. Not a lot of washout days, but we got quite a few brief, extremely intense thunderstorms that brought a ton of precip. Irene lifted the rainfall totals big-time also.

[shark253]

It was certainly a hot summer this year.

[carribeanpirate]

shark253, on Sep 8 2011, 04:08 PM, said:

It was certainly a hot summer this year.

it was hot for periods of the summer, but overall, I thought it was normal. Take out a few days in June and one week in July that boosted the averages, it seemed normal mid 80's temp wise most of the year.

[NittanyLion]

carribeanpirate, on Sep 8 2011, 11:14 AM, said:

it was hot for periods of the summer, but overall, I thought it was normal. Take out a few days in June and one week in July that boosted the averages, it seemed normal mid 80's temp wise most of the year.

I would say maybe June/August were normal, but July was HOT.

22 out of 31 days of July were above 90F at Newark.

[snowshoe]

This summer also saw a big difference between North Jersey and central, south Jersey. I think up this way was cooler, more clouds and rain overall. Thats going by feel not sure what the average for sussex is so cant really compare.

[lab94]

snowshoe, on Sep 8 2011, 12:52 PM, said:

This summer also saw a big difference between North Jersey and central, south Jersey. I think up this way was cooler, more clouds and rain overall. Thats going by feel not sure what the average for sussex is so cant really compare.

July here was +3.3 And I think the reason was the warmer nights with the clouds. I only had 5 days @ 90 or better this year and 2 were in July