844 replies to this topic

[metfan4life]

The GFS has been advertising a really cold pattern to take shape around Halloween with a possible storm along the coast. It looks like the area can possibly see some flakes from this storm. The NAO and AO are forecasted to go negative at this time. Still time to go for this one.

[Frank01]

Yea it is interesting watching a storm on the GFS this time of year, but there are alot of factors to consider when you look at ACCUMULATING snowfall. One of those factors is surface temps. Although it may be cold enough at the surface for areas well NW of I-95, it still would not stick along I-95 and points East (if this were to happen of coarse). Alot goes into how strong the storm can get and if it can wrap in enough cold air before its precip shield moves out.

Regarding the NAO/AO they are TRENDING negative, doesn't necessarily mean they will be negative once the day arrives. But it looks like they will at least be neutral to slightly negative around the 29th of October.

Obviously still time to watch things as model runs mean nothing at this point in time. Just throwing out some factors that could prevent snow from sticking, but it would still be neat just to see it fall from the sky

[metfan4life]

GFS has snowflakes for the area

[shark253]

metfan4life, on Oct 20 2011, 03:07 PM, said:

GFS has snowflakes for the area

[ericjcrash]

LOL the 0z GFS crushes the Hudson Valley and Catskill at 192 hours with a 978 Low East of Boston.

[Virgaman]

ericjcrash, on Oct 21 2011, 07:26 AM, said:

LOL the 0z GFS crushes the Hudson Valley and Catskill at 192 hours with a 978 Low East of Boston.

Crushing rainstorm, with rain to snow in the catskills and a crippling snowstorm for the appalachians

Good example of what you will see for this upcoming winter time and time again lol

[TatamyPA]

0z Euro is on board with a coastal storm in this time frame (hr 192). Again this would be primarily an inland elevation event with rain to snow for NE PA, NW NJ, and SE NY (per 0z GFS).

[jjvesnow]

TatamyPA, on Oct 21 2011, 10:47 AM, said:

0z Euro is on board with a coastal storm in this time frame (hr 192). Again this would be primarily an inland elevation event with rain to snow for NE PA, NW NJ, and SE NY (per 0z GFS).

First flakes and first freeze? Sign me up for that!

[weathergeek87]

Isn't there a statistic about October snows typically leading to mainly cold/dry winters?

[NittanyLion]

weathergeek87, on Oct 21 2011, 10:33 AM, said:

Isn't there a statistic about October snows typically leading to mainly cold/dry winters?

Not sure but 2008 & 2009 both had October snow. 14" at High Point in one of them.

10/28/08:



10/15/09

[satellite_eyes]

I think in the past we have heard that colder Octobers lead to warmer winters (accord to stats). But since we have gotten accumulating snow in 2 out of the last 3 Octobers i've become skeptical. I'm not sure how they lined up temp-wise though so who knows. I'm not sure but the same rule might apply to November too. It's all just based on past stats anyway.

[Frank01]

Hey guys just a quick update on this Halloween storm...

http://aeroweather.org/2011/10/21/cooler-t...orm-in-october/

I am not really buying into the EURO at the moment...

[robbbs]

satellite_eyes, on Oct 21 2011, 05:29 PM, said:

I think in the past we have heard that colder Octobers lead to warmer winters (accord to stats). But since we have gotten accumulating snow in 2 out of the last 3 Octobers i've become skeptical. I'm not sure how they lined up temp-wise though so who knows. I'm not sure but the same rule might apply to November too. It's all just based on past stats anyway.

I haven't done the math but you're correct. The truth is that any number of winter types have followed cold or early snowfall Octobers and, therefore, there's no reliable correlation or conclusion to draw on what is likely to follow.

[jjvesnow]

Frank01, on Oct 21 2011, 04:46 PM, said:

Hey guys just a quick update on this Halloween storm...

http://aeroweather.org/2011/10/21/cooler-t...orm-in-october/

I am not really buying into the EURO at the moment...

Why would you? The would be storm is 7 days away.

[Virgaman]

robbbs, on Oct 21 2011, 06:03 PM, said:

I haven't done the math but you're correct. The truth is that any number of winter types have followed cold or early snowfall Octobers and, therefore, there's no reliable correlation or conclusion to draw on what is likely to follow.

WEll lets see i remember quite a few october snows.

October 20, 1972- general 2 to 5 inches area wide, followed by the most snowless winter on record with nyc getting 2.8 inches for the whole winter of 1972-73.

october 10, 1979- general 2 to 8 inches depending where you are, a very very dry winter that followed 1979-80.

october 4, 1987- freak snowstorm 6 inches in the suburbs with over 30 inches in the catskills , winter that followed was above normal snowfall for the area with two snowstorms in november 1987 with a major one in washington DC.

october 15, 2009- many received their first snowflakes and the winter that followed was above normal snowfall.

I am sure i missed a few but as you can see there is no real correlation.

[shark253]

Virgaman, on Oct 21 2011, 08:24 PM, said:

WEll lets see i remember quite a few october snows.

October 20, 1972- general 2 to 5 inches area wide, followed by the most snowless winter on record with nyc getting 2.8 inches for the whole winter of 1972-73.

october 10, 1979- general 2 to 8 inches depending where you are, a very very dry winter that followed 1979-80.

october 4, 1987- freak snowstorm 6 inches in the suburbs with over 30 inches in the catskills , winter that followed was above normal snowfall for the area with two snowstorms in november 1987 with a major one in washington DC.

october 15, 2009- many received their first snowflakes and the winter that followed was above normal snowfall.

I am sure i missed a few but as you can see there is no real correlation.

I agree.

[metfan4life]

18z GFS

[Virgaman]

that is totally insane if that were to verify

[ericjcrash]

metfan4life, on Oct 21 2011, 06:37 PM, said:

18z GFS

And so it begins.

[metfan4life]

0z GFS has a big noreaster but it's all rain.