181 replies to this topic

[metfan4life]

Storm is OTS on the new gfs.

[ericjcrash]

6z GFS is about as good as you could hope for for 95 points east given what is on the table. Possibly another needle can be thread.

[metfan4life]

ericjcrash, on Dec 4 2011, 05:46 AM, said:

6z GFS is about as good as you could hope for for 95 points east given what is on the table. Possibly another needle can be thread.

The ensembles agree. The Euro ensembles also show a low coming close to the coast.

[metfan4life]

ericjcrash, on Dec 4 2011, 05:46 AM, said:

6z GFS is about as good as you could hope for for 95 points east given what is on the table. Possibly another needle can be thread.

The ensembles agree. The Euro ensembles also show a low coming close to the coast.

[metfan4life]

JB on Twitter

Quote

Mid atlantic snow threat evolving on tail end of warmth, front part of cold period Thur.

[SAMC]

metfan4life, on Dec 4 2011, 10:13 AM, said:

JB on Twitter

I hope so.. The NWS has me as sunny high 47F.

[metfan4life]

12z GFS is warmer. Good hit for some parts of SNE.

SAMC, on Dec 4 2011, 10:54 AM, said:

I hope so.. The NWS has me as sunny high 47F.

Now he is calling for 3-6 inches for NYC

[metfan4life]

Really nice hit for areas north and west of the City. The City also gets a few inches based off the snowmap.

[SAMC]

metfan4life, on Dec 4 2011, 11:20 AM, said:

12z GFS is warmer. Good hit for some parts of SNE.





Now he is calling for 3-6 inches for NYC

A little more East and LI should be in the game as well.

[robbbs]

12z gfs show a big inland hit 4.5 days out. That's key. If this winter reverts back to typical winters (unlike the last two), this will change a dozen times and I wouldn't buy into any of it at this point. BTW, NYC surface temp is from 38 to 36 during the bulk of precip.

[metfan4life]

None of the other models are as strong as the GFS. GFS has been awful of late. Not sure if I buy this yet.

[metfan4life]

robbbs, on Dec 4 2011, 11:46 AM, said:

12z gfs show a big inland hit 4.5 days out. That's key. If this winter reverts back to typical winters (unlike the last two), this will change a dozen times and I wouldn't buy into any of it at this point. BTW, NYC surface temp is from 38 to 36 during the bulk of precip.

Do the models have more trouble in La Nina years than El Nino years? We saw this same thing happen last winter.

[robbbs]

metfan4life, on Dec 4 2011, 04:48 PM, said:

Do the models have more trouble in La Nina years than El Nino years? We saw this same thing happen last winter.

Here's the thing. Let's look at the end of week system as a test of another potential indicator of a possible change in our climate. If the storm really does throw snow in our area (big IF), coupled with the rare October snowfall, and the last several winters, there may be something to the theory that global warming is causing the waters of the north Atlantic to have warmed and impacted our winters in terms of more snowfall. Some mets believe there may be a parallel between warm north Atlantic waters, and more troughs and / or negative NAO's along the eastern seaboard. If that theory holds, you could get enhanced snowfall in our region, even without arctic or truly cold air in place, presuming it's cold enough for snow. In other words, a favorable storm track trumps other factors and results in more snowfall for our region.

[metfan4life]

12z GEFS are colder and more slightly more east than the op run.

[shark253]

And let the game begin!

[SAMC]

Looks like the NAO may help us out by going negative.. The latest indication is for the NAO to start going negative...

[metfan4life]

0z GFS looks like the Euro and the GGEM. It shreds the storm apart and OTS.

[metfan4life]

6z GFS shifted west and the Nam shifted east. Models are playing games once again.

[FreezingDrizzle]

robbbs, on Dec 4 2011, 12:00 PM, said:

Here's the thing. Let's look at the end of week system as a test of another potential indicator of a possible change in our climate. If the storm really does throw snow in our area (big IF), coupled with the rare October snowfall, and the last several winters, there may be something to the theory that global warming is causing the waters of the north Atlantic to have warmed and impacted our winters in terms of more snowfall. Some mets believe there may be a parallel between warm north Atlantic waters, and more troughs and / or negative NAO's along the eastern seaboard. If that theory holds, you could get enhanced snowfall in our region, even without arctic or truly cold air in place, presuming it's cold enough for snow. In other words, a favorable storm track trumps other factors and results in more snowfall for our region.

Enhanced snowpack would reflect IR radiation, causing a cooling of the earth; thus balancing earth's temperatures out to a certain extent.

On a large scale, cooling makes cooling, and warming makes warming. During an ice age, large snowpack areas cause further cooling by reflecting IR radiation from the earth. The opposite is also true, less snowpack area increases the earth's absorption of IR radiation, warming the earth.

[metfan4life]

JB is still going with 3-6 for the NYC area.