8 replies to this topic

[Bevans777]

Good Morning,

After much of the Midwest already took a big pounding from a major winter storm this weekend, that second, coastal wave finally did fully develop on Sunday night. And, while the larger cities along the I-95 corridor saw some form of frozen precipitation occur during a 10-hour time span --- from the 2-3 inches of snow which started during midday on Sunday near Washington and Baltimore all the way to Long Island by 9 or 10 o'clock, the intense vertical motions that had consolidated around the developing coastal wave led to some thunder, lightning and over an inch of rain in southeastern Virginia early Sunday night.

This morning that impressive feature is now located about 100-150 miles east of the Delmarva Peninsula, and it is poised to move farther out to sea today. Forecasting precipitation types during this storm as it unfolded was perhaps more of a nightmare than it was back during the Valentine's Day storm, because the INTENSITY of the precipitation is what really determined whether or not there was snow, sleet or freezing drizzle occurring at any given moment. Temperatures near the surface weren't in the 20s at the onset of precipitation like they were two weeks ago, but were in much more of a "marginal" kind of category in the low and mid-30s) when things got underway. I pointed out that while the computer model consensus was that this storm would churn
out about 0.60" of Liquid, you typically can only count on about 50 or 60% of that actually happening. Sure enough, the actual liquid equivalent that we've seen from this case in the Tri-State Area has only been about 0.30" to 0.45" as of 3 o'clock this morning.

The shield of steadier precipitation is now moving into southern and central New England early this morning. And, while there's a "dry slot" which is now punching into the region in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, we're still going to need to be on the lookout today for plenty of clouds, flurries, one or two snow showers and even some spotty freezing drizzle. Ahhh, and then there's the: "Just how messy will the roads be in my neck of the woods?" subject. Well, most roads that have been treated since late on Sunday should be in decent shape, and mostly wet. I'd be concerned about those secondary roads and some side streets for a while this morning, but once we get into the midday hours --- even if some kind of snow shower materializes, we can't forget that the higher SUN ANGLE will prevent most road surfaces from getting any type of accumulation. The sun angle now is about as high as it during the midpoint of October, so even though it may be obscured by cloud cover, it will make a difference. We aren't anticipating "white-out" conditions at any time today east of the Appalachians, and it would take something very intense for road surfaces to get snow-covered.

We were concerned yesterday that the old, decaying, upper-level low pressure system now located over the central Great Lakes might play a "spoiler" role in the upcoming quieter weather trend that will be developing here by midweek. If anything, the fairly concentric upper-level circulation over Lake Michigan this morning will become more and more "elongated" during the next 24-36 hours, before it ultimately dies out. We will still be forecasting that some flurries and snow showers are still possible tomorrow around upstate New York and in New England, but areas farther to the south will probably see the sun pop out for at least a few hours.

Temperatures tomorrow will bounce back fairly quickly, reaching the 40s in most of your area tomorrow and climbing a little bit more on Wednesday. Late this week, the next storm poised to move across the nation's midsection will probably be located somewhere near northern Iowa on Thursday morning, and then near western Lake Superior early on Friday. In a scenario rather similar to what just happened within the past 24 hours, a new wave of low pressure should spin up along a frontal boundary Thursday night or Friday morning east of the Appalachians. However, with temperatures expected to be near 40 on Friday morning and probably in the upper-40s to around 50 on Friday afternoon, the case late this week should be one that involves ALL RAIN. It must be based solely on the fact that it'll be March, eh ???

Have a good day...

Bill Evans

[robbbs]

Bill, have to hand it to you on a great call -- snowfalls were nowhere near NWS forecasts and much closer to your figures. We have 3.0" of snow on the ground here in West Milford NJ on 0.39" liquid precip, despite all snow and no mixing. Unless some of the snow compacted, talk about a low snow to precip ratio! Light snow continues; temp is 26.0.

[bm55]

3 in. also here in harriman with light snow falling.
great call,bill

[NYBrit]

Well done Bill!  Great call!!  Sadly you were right.  Looks like we were wrong to doubt you!

[summer]

1.5 inches in westfield...

[weatherbowl]

Nice call Eyewitness Weather Team.

[LongIslandWthr]

Thanks for mentioning the board on air Bill  ;D

[Snowamp5]

4 inches here in Rock Hill, light snow still falling.  27 degrees.  In-laws in Pike said they have about 4 inches also, however light rain is currently falling by them.

[metfan4life]

i got 1.8 inches in sheepsheadbay