12 replies to this topic

[weatherbowl]

The potential exists for a storm late this coming weekend. This from Upton:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...


MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK UP THE COAST AND IMPACT
THE AREA SAT NGT AND SUN. THE EXACT TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED...BUT THE 12Z ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONALS DO INDICATE THAT
THE FEATURE IS LIKELY. GFS IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE WRN OUTLIER. FCST FOLLOWS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS.

THE COLD AIR WILL NOT BE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM...SO
PCPN IS LIKELY TO START AT RAIN EVERYWHERE. AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS
IN...A BAND OF FROGEN DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ASSIST IN PRODUCING
HEAVIER PCPN RATES AS WELL AS BETTER DYNAMIC COOLING IN DEEPER LIFT.
FOR THESE REASONS...A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LOW. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR...BUT
THE BAND COULD MAKE IT CLOSER TO THE COAST IF A TRACK NEAR OR E OF
THE GFS IS REALIZED. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER AND NOTICEABLY
DEEPER...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LINGERED INTO SUN NGT. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES THE BULK OF THE PCPN COULD BE SUN AFTN AND EVE.

[NYCSNOWMAN]

On Upton's Discussion still mentioned: As of 6:38 am

The forecast becomes more complicated as we enter the second half of
the weekend regarding a potential low moving up the coast. The 00z
European model (ecmwf) has trended more progressive and therefore weaker/offshore
with the low than its 12z counterpart...while the GFS and gefs mean
look to be fast outliers...with the parent shortwave several hundred
miles farther east than the European model (ecmwf) and riding atop cold air advection in the wake of
the low crossing eastern Canada on Sat. Some 00z gefs members do look
similar to the 00z European model (ecmwf)...with a sharper/slower shortwave and a
weak low passing off the middle Atlantic coast on Sunday. At this time chose to
stick with the previous forecast ... rain changing to snow
across interior sections...and lingering into Sunday night...though
it should be said that a solution like the 00z European model (ecmwf) and supportive
gefs mean members...with a weak low passing to the south...would be
colder and more suggestive of a light snow event even in NYC metropolitan
and Long Island.


The low will exit by late Sunday night...followed by broad high
pressure. Temperatures will be close to average...with Arctic air locked
up near Greenland.


** Most NOT BUYING this solution IMO **
time will tell....

[metfan4life]

All the models have shifted OTS with this storm. Still have to watch this though. The one thing that is not in our favor is the + NAO. This will most likely be a thread the needle situation,

[Virgaman]

AS LONG as my flight is good for the morning on sunday i am happy

[David-LI]

HUGE rainstorm next week on the GFS. Way to go winter.

[satellite_eyes]

David-LI, on Jan 4 2012, 12:12 PM, said:

HUGE rainstorm next week on the GFS. Way to go winter.

Yes but it's a pattern changer. I can feel it in my bones. haha.

[David-LI]

satellite_eyes, on Jan 4 2012, 06:17 PM, said:

Yes but it's a pattern changer. I can feel it in my bones. haha.

actually I like that it's a rainstorm this far out. At least we have something to track

[robbbs]

David-LI, on Jan 4 2012, 05:22 PM, said:

actually I like that it's a rainstorm this far out. At least we have something to track

This is just entertainment value speculation this far out. However, in a Nina-ish pattern, there's little to prevent lows from amplifying and trending further and further northwest with time on the modeling. Hence, the typical inland runner / Great Lakes runners in such patterns. You would probably be better off with the GFS showing a low ots this far out in time, rather than the low already west of us. Again, this is just for kicks as the timing is too far away and anything can happen.

[Frank01]

Update to the storm between 10th-12th

http://aeroweather.org/2012/01/04/storm-on...rm-on-the-12th/

[icehater]

12Z GFS shows no storm for this weekend. Late week storm next week is warm ahead of and with storm and loaded with rain. Storm tracks to western NY and only extreme western NY and Pa have a chance of snow. Euro and GFS pretty much in agreement on the storms track. If so it will be a huge vortex in Canada and then will unleash some real cold air southward once it passes. In situations like this hope for flurries at best as any succeeding storm gets suppressed. If it takes the perfect track LES areas get crushed with snow from the storm and then from LES on the backside. GFS as usual stays cold after that but I tend to doubt it. The model is progressive as is and after a lakes storm it will outdo itself.

[FreezingDrizzle]

Mt. Holly yanked the precip out of this weekend forecast in their afternoon update.

[carribeanpirate]

FreezingDrizzle, on Jan 4 2012, 09:50 PM, said:

Mt. Holly yanked the precip out of this weekend forecast in their afternoon update.

Shocking....................

[bm55]

FreezingDrizzle, on Jan 4 2012, 03:50 PM, said:

Mt. Holly yanked the precip out of this weekend forecast in their afternoon update.

Upton has pretty much taken it out also.