66 replies to this topic

[shark253]

I thought I start a new topic on this dull winter we are all experiencing and discuss further information on here. Who knows, maybe by posting this new topic, I might zinx this pattern we are stuck in and change it to cold and snowy. Next week looks wet with the midweek storm, and then we fall back to normal temps before we jump up again to above normal temps.

Honestly, its so beautiful outside right now, im thinking of barbequing later on this afternoon ( ribs + chicken legs, ). Im also hearing birds singing too which makes it feel like Spring outside right now. Crazy winter.

[DBZ80]

January may go snowless which would mean that the trio of Nov/Dec and Jan would be snowless for the first time since records were kept.Only the October snowfall so far.

[snowshoe]

DBZ80, on Jan 8 2012, 01:24 PM, said:

January may go snowless which would mean that the trio of Nov/Dec and Jan would be snowless for the first time since records were kept.Only the October snowfall so far.

At least had 1/2 inch in Dec and 1/4 in Jan so far. Not snowless for me but not even close to what it should be.
Today is not as nice as predicted. My temp is 37 and cloudy

[icehater]

snowshoe, on Jan 8 2012, 01:35 PM, said:

At least had 1/2 inch in Dec and 1/4 in Jan so far. Not snowless for me but not even close to what it should be.
Today is not as nice as predicted. My temp is 37 and cloudy

3/4" in NW NJ this far into winter (discounting 10/29 of course) is amazing. Even in bad winters you guys get decent snow. But the fact is this is a bad winter not just for our whole area but well across the country so even snow to ice/rain events with early accums are absent for the NW burbs.

[satellite_eyes]

Even though i want it to snow so i can get out and do the things i normally do in the snow, it has been nice not to have to deal with any sleet or freezing rain. Plus having that 17" back in Oct and that 1" in Dec which hung around for a week i think has made me a little more patient than i normally would be. I really don't mind if we end up just having a 4 or 5 week winter this year.

[rgwp96]

snowshoe, on Jan 8 2012, 01:35 PM, said:

At least had 1/2 inch in Dec and 1/4 in Jan so far. Not snowless for me but not even close to what it should be.
Today is not as nice as predicted. My temp is 37 and cloudy

Wow you got clobbered lol

[snowshoe]

rgwp96, on Jan 8 2012, 02:48 PM, said:

Wow you got clobbered lol

LOL The cabin fever is setting in. lol

[SAMC]

shark253, on Jan 8 2012, 12:05 PM, said:

I thought I start a new topic on this dull winter we are all experiencing and discuss further information on here. Who knows, maybe by posting this new topic, I might zinx this pattern we are stuck in and change it to cold and snowy. Next week looks wet with the midweek storm, and then we fall back to normal temps before we jump up again to above normal temps.

Honestly, its so beautiful outside right now, im thinking of barbequing later on this afternoon ( ribs + chicken legs, ). Im also hearing birds singing too which makes it feel like Spring outside right now. Crazy winter.

Many birds have not migrated this season..

[icehater]

satellite_eyes, on Jan 8 2012, 02:38 PM, said:

Even though i want it to snow so i can get out and do the things i normally do in the snow, it has been nice not to have to deal with any sleet or freezing rain. Plus having that 17" back in Oct and that 1" in Dec which hung around for a week i think has made me a little more patient than i normally would be. I really don't mind if we end up just having a 4 or 5 week winter this year.

Must have taken you a long time to dig out.

[bloombergblizzard]

In the near term, there seems to be no end to the mild weather pattern.

In the long term (and when I mean long term, I mean 10-15 days), the GFS has a winter storm for the January 20-23 time frame:
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/gr...anel2/plt10.gif
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/gr...anel2/plt11.gif
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/gr...anel2/plt12.gif
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/gr...anel2/plt13.gif
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-...9727?view=table

Once again, this is in the long range. It is difficult to take these models seriously until the medium (3-7 days) range.

[weathergeek87]

To be completely honest, I'm glad this is happening. We think we have it all under control and can predict winter patterns for months in advance, then a winter like this happens and we are all taken aback (especially the folks that put out LR forecasts calling for a flip to snow and cold), wondering what the hell happened. Shows you how dynamic our planet is and how many unknowns there are.

We are already almost 1/3 of the way through January, and models continue to show no hope in sight for snow and cold for the next two weeks (at least).

If I had a forecast out there for a pattern flip happening this month, I would seriously reconsider it. This pattern is so dominating and has been for so long that going against the models is just plain ignorant. If a model successfully nailed 3 successive storms, wouldn't you put more stock into that model come the 4th storm? I sure would. So how all these long range forecasters can blow off the models and continue to call for a pattern change when models show continued warmth is absolutely beyond me; and how some of these weenies can blindly follow these Mets without sitting back and looking at the facts just makes me scratch my head even more.

By the way -- Jeff Smith's 5 day forecast calls for mild temps with the city not going below freezing overnight for at least the next week. Incredible.

[doncat]

18z GFS looks very cold in the long range after next Friday. Euro looks cold also. Lets get it cold... the snows will come, I hope.

[satellite_eyes]

icehater, on Jan 8 2012, 06:06 PM, said:

Must have taken you a long time to dig out.

Luckily i had my snowblower for that one LOL.

btw - another positive of this winter - it's not like snow is just missing us to the north or south or anything like that. I mean it's not even close. Sometimes it hurts a little more when you have hope or get burned LOL.

[shark253]

SAMC, on Jan 8 2012, 10:19 PM, said:

Many birds have not migrated this season..

Yep....also another thing I notice was when that Halloween snowstorm occurred back in 2011, I had a bad feeling about the upcoming winter. Usually, early snow means no snow for the winter ahead. Another thing that I notice and I mentioned this on the board in October was 2 trees of mine in my back yard had not become bare yet. Last year, they were bare before Halloween and I knew right away we were in for a ruff winter and we sure did get one. This year these 2 trees still had green leaves on them in November for crying out loud. When I saw that, I knew that this winter was not going to be a snowy one or cold. So far, the results are true. Lets see if the rest of this winter will continue dull and snowless.

I have to admit, some of the "Old Says" are true. I know some might sound weird, but wouldn't you agree that back in the old days where meteorologists had no instruments to read and predict weather, went with what they saw in the sky, such as wind direction, cloud formation, and etc.

[icehater]

shark253, on Jan 9 2012, 01:20 PM, said:

Yep....also another thing I notice was when that Halloween snowstorm occurred back in 2011, I had a bad feeling about the upcoming winter. Usually, early snow means no snow for the winter ahead. Another thing that I notice and I mentioned this on the board in October was 2 trees of mine in my back yard had not become bare yet. Last year, they were bare before Halloween and I knew right away we were in for a ruff winter and we sure did get one. This year these 2 trees still had green leaves on them in November for crying out loud. When I saw that, I knew that this winter was not going to be a snowy one or cold. So far, the results are true. Lets see if the rest of this winter will continue dull and snowless.

I have to admit, some of the "Old Says" are true. I know some might sound weird, but wouldn't you agree that back in the old days where meteorologists had no instruments to read and predict weather, went with what they saw in the sky, such as wind direction, cloud formation, and etc.

My feeling is also that early snows (mainly November ones) often end up as winters that have low snow totals. Someone posted here or on American that October snows show otherwise but there have been so few October snow events that you hardly have enough sample to judge.

[shark253]

icehater, on Jan 9 2012, 06:34 PM, said:

My feeling is also that early snows (mainly November ones) often end up as winters that have low snow totals. Someone posted here or on American that October snows show otherwise but there have been so few October snow events that you hardly have enough sample to judge.

Agree....for example, back in 1989, NYC had a freak snowstorm right before Thanksgiving Day I believe (4.5 inches give or take) and then followed a brutal, dry December. Thats it, winter was over after December. J and F were disasters.

[icehater]

shark253, on Jan 9 2012, 01:42 PM, said:

Agree....for example, back in 1989, NYC had a freak snowstorm right before Thanksgiving Day I believe (4.5 inches give or take) and then followed a brutal, dry December. Thats it, winter was over after December. J and F were disasters.

95/96 would be an exception though. First snow that winter was on Nov. 29th.

[GATOMAN69]

This winter seems even more boring because we haven't had any storms to even track, at least having some near misses keeps folks interested...we haven't had any real threats in a long time, but it can change in our favor. I heard 2 separate forecasters up here mention last night that the pattern will turn wintry by next weekend , and one of them (Brad Field) is very conservative and probably would not have mentioned this without a high level of confidence.

[NittanyLion]

SAMC, on Jan 8 2012, 05:19 PM, said:

Many birds have not migrated this season..

I went out for a run this afternoon and there was an alarming amount of birds out up here in Vermont.

[shark253]

Currently -30F in Fairbanks with light snow. BTW---- Ton of snow in Alaska.