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El Nino next winter?

Started by metfan4life, Jan 15 2012 02:18 PM

32 replies to this topic

#1
metfan4life
Posted 15 January 2012 - 02:18 PM

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Enso plum
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...33;201201!/
LETS GO METS

#2
Ehop
Posted 15 January 2012 - 10:07 PM

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Brooklyn Dodger motto?
Wait until next year.

#3
carribeanpirate
Posted 16 January 2012 - 07:36 AM

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Are you for real? With the beating you have taken this year on long range forecasts, you decide to post something for NEXT winter!!??

#4
FreezingDrizzle
Posted 16 January 2012 - 08:39 AM

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View PostEhop, on Jan 15 2012, 10:07 PM, said:

Brooklyn Dodger motto?
Wait until next year.
It's a Brooklyn thing...
2011-2012 Accumulating Snow and Ice

October 29: 3.0 inches
January 21 - 3.1 inches
February 8 - 0.75 inches
February 11 - 0.5 Inches
Total to-date - 7.4 inches

Lowest temperature -- January 4: 10 F

#5
weathergeek87
Posted 16 January 2012 - 09:57 AM

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on Jan 16 2012, 07:36 AM, said:

Are you for real? With the beating you have taken this year on long range forecasts, you decide to post something for NEXT winter!!??

Haha good point.
Flushing, NY

Lyndon State College Class of 2011 -- Lyndonville, Vermont -- Broadcast News Major -- Meteorology Minor

Trained Skywarn Spotter

#6
metfan4life
Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:07 AM

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on Jan 16 2012, 07:36 AM, said:

Are you for real? With the beating you have taken this year on long range forecasts, you decide to post something for NEXT winter!!??

Yes because I wanted to post it.
LETS GO METS

#7
snowshoe
Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:09 AM

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LOl I was thinking the same. Forcasters/models cant even get next week right and we are hearing about next winter.
Location: Wantage NJ (Libertyville section) (Northwest Sussex County)
Total snow for 2011-2012 season: 24 inches
Total snow for 2010-2011 season: 50.8 inches
Total snow for 2009-2010 season: 69.5 inches
Total snow for 2008-2009 season: 42.6 inches
Total snow for 2007-2008 season: 52.3 inches
Average 60 Inches

#8
metfan4life
Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:12 AM

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View Postsnowshoe, on Jan 16 2012, 10:09 AM, said:

LOl I was thinking the same. Forcasters/models cant even get next week right and we are hearing about next winter.

That's why I am taking it with a grain of salt. I posted it because there is nothing else to talk about.
LETS GO METS

#9
jetfan58
Posted 16 January 2012 - 12:58 PM

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you keep posting metfan. pay no attention to the haters out there.
midwood,brooklyn

#10
carribeanpirate
Posted 16 January 2012 - 01:02 PM

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View Postjetfan58, on Jan 16 2012, 05:58 PM, said:

you keep posting metfan. pay no attention to the haters out there.


Yes, please keep making non-sensical posts about next winter.

#11
bloombergblizzard
Posted 16 January 2012 - 01:28 PM

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It's next-to-impossible to get a grip on a forecast for 36 hours from now, let alone 36 weeks from now. Just look at the forecast for the Jan. 26 snow storm:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-2...t-tomorrow.html
The forecast, 36 hours before the storm, was for 3-5 inches, and the whole area got over a foot!

#12
metfan4life
Posted 17 January 2012 - 10:32 AM

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on Jan 16 2012, 01:02 PM, said:

Yes, please keep making non-sensical posts about next winter.

Then don't read my posts. Plain and simple.
LETS GO METS

#13
NYsnowlover
Posted 22 January 2012 - 09:24 PM

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a bit early for an outlook, eh?
R.I.P. WINTER 2011-2012
Onto Winter 2012-2013

#14
terryjohnson16
Posted 23 January 2012 - 05:20 PM

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That's what you call a long-ranged forecast.
Posted ImagePosted Image

#15
NYsnowlover
Posted 23 January 2012 - 05:29 PM

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For Anthony:
Attached Image: Screen_Shot_2012_01_23_at_5.28.56_PM.png

:lol:
R.I.P. WINTER 2011-2012
Onto Winter 2012-2013

#16
NYsnowlover
Posted 23 January 2012 - 05:31 PM

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Attached Image: Screen_Shot_2012_01_23_at_5.30.30_PM.png

:lol: :lol: :hyper: :hyper: :hyper: :hyper:
R.I.P. WINTER 2011-2012
Onto Winter 2012-2013

#17
NYsnowlover
Posted 23 January 2012 - 05:53 PM

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I am thinking that we will most likely be at ENSO neutral by late April, or early May.
R.I.P. WINTER 2011-2012
Onto Winter 2012-2013

#18
NYsnowlover
Posted 23 January 2012 - 05:58 PM

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from the CPC:


Quote

NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME 12 2011
PROJECTION FRACTION TERCILES HALF DEG C MEDIAN
BELOW NORMAL ABOVE BELOW NORMAL ABOVE DEG C ANOMALY
OND 1.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 25.65 -0.98
NDJ 1.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 25.50 -1.07
DJF 0.993 0.007 0.000 0.986 0.014 0.000 25.52 -1.11
JFM 0.955 0.045 0.000 0.932 0.068 0.000 25.89 -0.94
FMA 0.885 0.115 0.000 0.753 0.247 0.000 26.54 -0.71
MAM 0.757 0.235 0.008 0.525 0.469 0.006 27.10 -0.52
AMJ 0.577 0.336 0.087 0.365 0.604 0.031 27.42 -0.35
MJJ 0.463 0.351 0.186 0.317 0.583 0.100 27.35 -0.23
JJA 0.413 0.359 0.227 0.311 0.530 0.159 27.07 -0.17
JAS 0.434 0.361 0.205 0.353 0.492 0.155 26.71 -0.23
ASO 0.413 0.353 0.234 0.369 0.431 0.200 26.54 -0.21
SON 0.376 0.358 0.267 0.360 0.385 0.255 26.54 -0.15
OND 0.373 0.365 0.262 0.382 0.348 0.271 26.46 -0.17
NDJ 0.386 0.370 0.244 0.404 0.335 0.261 26.34 -0.23
DJF 0.420 0.370 0.210 0.427 0.357 0.216 26.32 -0.31
JFM 0.434 0.367 0.199 0.411 0.403 0.186 26.53 -0.30

R.I.P. WINTER 2011-2012
Onto Winter 2012-2013

#19
NYsnowlover
Posted 23 January 2012 - 05:59 PM

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Posted Image
R.I.P. WINTER 2011-2012
Onto Winter 2012-2013

#20
NYsnowlover
Posted 23 January 2012 - 06:30 PM

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Analogues for next year based on forecasted ENSO as being a weak west based El Nino following a two year La Nina:

Attached Image: Screen_Shot_2012_01_23_at_6.29.57_PM.png
R.I.P. WINTER 2011-2012
Onto Winter 2012-2013
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