12 replies to this topic

[NYsnowlover]

It looks like there could possible be a pretty good early season severe weather outbreak in the southern Ohio Valley, and in the southeastern sates.

[NYsnowlover]

Here is the probability for tornado formation:

[NYsnowlover]

Categorical outlook:

[NYsnowlover]

It looks like there are a few thunderstorms that are starting to fire up in Mississippi.

[NYsnowlover]

Some pretty good CAPE values over southern Mississippi, Alabama, and over parts of Louisiana.

[NYsnowlover]

New Meso discussion:

Quote

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222026Z - 222230Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
ARKLATEX THEN RACE NEWD TOWARD WRN TN/NWRN MS AFTER DARK. DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 00Z.

LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS ERN
OK/NERN TX AND WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SPREAD INTO SRN/ERN
AR...AS NOTED BY SFC DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S INTO
THE 60S...WHILE A STUBBORN WEDGE OF COOLER AIR HAS YET TO BE
DISPLACED OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/NWRN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS GREATEST
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO THE S-E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEDGE FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING BAND OF LOW LEVEL CU ALONG
THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 OVER NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER
FORCING THAT WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX. WITH TIME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS LINE...OR PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR THE
LA BORDER AS EXHIBITED BY SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN FROM NEAR TYR
TO JUST WEST OF SHV. NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 01/22/2012


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33369442 34409266 36039130 35608952 33729030 32089160
31789398 33369442

[NYsnowlover]

Some storms are now starting to pop up over Arkansas.

[NYsnowlover]

There is now tornado watch for a PDS(Particularly Dangerous Situation)in the Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Mississippi area:

Quote

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE
AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE
MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON

[NYsnowlover]

Some big storms are firing up over in Central Arkansas.

[NYsnowlover]

Quote

..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CST...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 736 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE IN FORDYCE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GRAYS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO
THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

[NYsnowlover]

Quote

149
WFUS54 KLZK 230155
TORLZK
ARC095-117-147-230230-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0008.120123T0155Z-120123T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
755 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL WOODRUFF COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 750 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF PARKERS CORNER...OR 10 MILES
SOUTH OF HAZEN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
HAZEN... DE VALLS BLUFF... CLARENDON...
BRINKLEY... STUTTGART MUNI ARPT...
PEPPERS LANDING... HALLSVILLE... DOBBS LANDING...
BISCOE... ALLENDALE... ALFREY...
ZENT... TOLLVILLE... SLOVAK...
MONROE... KEEVIL... FARGO...
FAIRMOUNT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NORTH OF HUMNOKE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 193 AND 218.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROUGHLY ONE THIRD OF ALL ARKANSAS TORNADOES OCCUR AT NIGHT. TORNADOES
ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 9164 3461 9165 3464 9164 3467 9170
3476 9170 3504 9116 3500 9113 3499 9114
3492 9114 3491 9111 3486 9109 3474 9110
3473 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 237DEG 45KT 3468 9158

$$

62

[bloombergblizzard]

There are currently several Tornado Warnings:
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtg...amp;wwa=Tornado Warning

[bloombergblizzard]

There are now two confirmed deaths in Alabama. It's quite the unfortunate situation in Alabama.