404 replies to this topic

[Jimrin1967]

Keep in mind, I am talking verbatim off this one run; but we are seeing some consistency now so let me show you where I think the models will correct to. You can see we do have some blocking building into Greenland. If that happens, we'll see the PV push farther east; which will allow the western Atlantic ridge to build more. Then, as usual, the model is stringing out the energy in the trough in the east. I re-drew in red what I think we'll actually see based on model error. Also, based on the amplitude and position of the ridge in the west. So this is what I think the pattern SHOULD look like at this time step.

[jjvesnow]

Looks like the EURO is agreeing with you. LONG way to go, but this could get very interesting.

[okterrific83]

No cold air in front of it, going to be tough going for snow for the coast or city.

[NYsnowlover]

I think that the timeframe that follows this one will be the start of our 2-3 weeks of winter, but hey, i'll gladly take it over the crappy pattern that we are stuck in right now.

[bloombergblizzard]

If I am seeing the GFS correctly, there is mostly warm air with the February 3-4 storm, with cold air and storms after that. The Euro has warm air ahead of the storm.

What I am seeing is a general pattern of colder air and storms. Let's see if the models continue to say that.

[NYsnowlover]

bloombergblizzard, on Jan 27 2012, 07:15 PM, said:

If I am seeing the GFS correctly, there is mostly warm air with the February 3-4 storm, with cold air and storms after that. The Euro has warm air ahead of the storm.

What I am seeing is a general pattern of colder air and storms. Let's see if the models continue to say that.

Don't worry about the specifics this far out, just try to make sure that the models still have the storm showing up.

[NYsnowlover]

The 18z GFS still has the storm for this timeframe.

[NYsnowlover]

Great weenie solution on the 18z GFS, the snow almost never stops falling on Long Island, and other places east of NYC on this run, it is almost nonstop from Friday through Monday.

[robbbs]

NYsnowlover, on Jan 28 2012, 10:46 PM, said:

Great weenie solution on the 18z GFS, the snow almost never stops falling on Long Island, and other places east of NYC on this run, it is almost nonstop from Friday through Monday.

Yeah, for the weenies perhaps but not for the rest. Lol. If you're referring to next weekend, it shows several strung out and very weak lows. The last wave, late Sunday to Monday, is the strongest, but the gfs paints an unrealistic scenario with the low way east but still producing precip for eastern LI. Despite all that, and even if one were to buy this solution, the total precip for most areas is about 0.25" qpf for the entire duration, with the exception of extreme east points (ie. Montauk and vicinity). That's over a 72 hour period so it's all light intensity or snow showers, except far east. However, this scenario will change completely in time anyway.

[NYsnowlover]

IMO this is going to be a very interesting week in regards to storm tracking, as we currently have 2 possible storms for next weekend, (one is on Friday, and another one is on Saturday into Sunday), and there could be some cold air that could stay in the area after these two possible storms move through our area, and with that cold air, there is also the possibility for more storms to track through our area.

[robbbs]

NYsnowlover, on Jan 29 2012, 12:14 AM, said:

IMO this is going to be a very interesting week in regards to storm tracking, as we currently have 2 possible storms for next weekend, (one is on Friday, and another one is on Saturday into Sunday), and there could be some cold air that could stay in the area after these two possible storms move through our area, and with that cold air, there is also the possibility for more storms to track through our area.

Agree there's some potential. However, there's a great deal of model divergence and cold air is marginal at best. I'd give the odds as not very good. However, in this non-winter of ours, this will bring attention until such time that the modeling becomes more consistent and uniform.

[NYsnowlover]

the 18z GFS ENS have the storm east of the 40/70 BM.

[TatamyPA]

NYsnowlover, on Jan 28 2012, 06:14 PM, said:

IMO this is going to be a very interesting week in regards to storm tracking, as we currently have 2 possible storms for next weekend, (one is on Friday, and another one is on Saturday into Sunday), and there could be some cold air that could stay in the area after these two possible storms move through our area, and with that cold air, there is also the possibility for more storms to track through our area.

You need to see some degree of consistency in the models for an event next weekend. There has not been any. 18z GFS shows an event. 12z had a lakes cutter. 6z was OTS. Last two runs of the Euro show nothing. Good luck with it!

[NYsnowlover]

robbbs, on Jan 28 2012, 06:19 PM, said:

Agree there's some potential. However, there's a great deal of model divergence and cold air is marginal at best. I'd give the odds as not very good. However, in this non-winter of ours, this will bring attention until such time that the modeling becomes more consistent and uniform.

I think that there is more than just some potential, I think that there is a lot of potential for the 2 to possible 3 weeks after February 2nd, (give or take a day), and I currently think that the NYC area could have one or two good snow events in this timeframe, and IMO, this has the most potential of the entire year.

[robbbs]

NYsnowlover, on Jan 29 2012, 12:21 AM, said:

the 18z GFS ENS have the storm east of the 40/70 BM.

Weenie suicide. Lol. Well, as we both posted, this will be something to watch for many. There will probably be some pretty big swings in the model handling, especially early in the period.

[NYsnowlover]

TatamyPA, on Jan 28 2012, 06:23 PM, said:

You need to see some degree of consistency in the models for an event next weekend. There has not been any. 18z GFS shows an event. 12z had a lakes cutter. 6z was OTS. Last two runs of the Euro show nothing. Good luck with it!

I am just glad that the models still have the storm, and they did not lose it(yet)

BTW: did you see the massive cutoff low that the 12z Euro had in the Southwestern US?

[robbbs]

NYsnowlover, on Jan 29 2012, 12:23 AM, said:

I think that there is more than just some potential, I think that there is a lot of potential for the 2 to possible 3 weeks after February 2nd, (give or take a day), and I currently think that the NYC area could have one or two good snow events in this timeframe, and IMO, this has the most potential of the entire year.

It can't be more than "some potential" for the weather 2 and 3 weeks out. However, there's quite a bit of divergence with the long range modeling and as the MO all winter has been to lose what looked like promising patterns several weeks out, I'll reserve any excitement until we get closer and/or there's more model consistency.

[weathergeek87]

NYsnowlover, on Jan 28 2012, 06:23 PM, said:

I think that there is more than just some potential, I think that there is a lot of potential for the 2 to possible 3 weeks after February 2nd, (give or take a day), and I currently think that the NYC area could have one or two good snow events in this timeframe, and IMO, this has the most potential of the entire year.

Hmm. Where have I heard that one before.

[TatamyPA]

NYsnowlover, on Jan 28 2012, 06:24 PM, said:

I am just glad that the models still have the storm, and they did not lose it(yet)

Yeah, maybe the models will come up with something good during the overnight and both the 0z GFS and 0z Euro will show a HECS for next weekend. LOL. Unless you see some degree of consistency and agreement it's just model fantasy.

[NYsnowlover]

robbbs, on Jan 28 2012, 06:27 PM, said:

It can't be more than "some potential" for the weather 2 and 3 weeks out. However, there's quite a bit of divergence with the long range modeling and as the MO all winter has been to lose what looked like promising patterns several weeks out, I'll reserve any excitement until we get closer and/or there's more model consistency.

Well I am all in for this brief 2-3 week possible winter, it is out LAST SHOT to salvage this winter, and with a little luck we may be able to get a February 1983 repeat(I'd give it a 0.0001% chance right now).

I just like how the PNA is heading positive, the Alaskan vortex of death is moving over the Aleutians(good for us), and how some models are now bringing the MJO into phases 7-8-1, while pause 7 isn't the best, it is still worlds away from phases 3-4-5, which we have been stuck in all winter long.