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Tracking Tropical Storm Henri

metfan4life's Photo metfan4life 20 Aug 2021

Models tonight shifted west towards Montauk bullseye. Ukir has 4-8 inches of rain for the NYC area/ LI.

Every model hooks this storm left but the location is still unknown.

Some questions to be answered

How strong is the storm going to be ?

When will the hook take place ?

This is going to be interesting to track.
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weatherbowl's Photo weatherbowl 20 Aug 2021

Potential for a long island landfall seems to be going up
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metfan4life's Photo metfan4life 20 Aug 2021

It keeps shifting west

NYC might be under the gun soon
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satellite_eyes's Photo satellite_eyes 20 Aug 2021

also very slowing moving once it hits land.
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CoralRed's Photo CoralRed 21 Aug 2021

Wow! Where is everybody? I logged in tonight for the first time I think after moving away.

I have checked in here though without logging in, though. I lived in the area too many years not to maintain an interest in New Jersey and NYC.

I hope there are no big surprises like we had with Superstore Sandy. I will check back tomorrow.
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robbbs's Photo robbbs 21 Aug 2021

Hello Friends - Quite an unusual and potentially dangerous storm event looming, particularly on Long Island. Models overnight seemed to converge on more of a Montauk landfall. However, the NHC official track still has landfall over central LI. In addition, the 6Z NAM shows a northwest moving storm with landfall over Queens and a stall over NYC for several days. Therefore, there's still a number of questions. Also, a question on the strength of Henri. While currently a tropical storm, strengthening is expected to a cat 1 or even possibly a cat 2 at landfall. Something to really watch for updates today, really for all locations as copious rains could result well away from the center.
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metfan4life's Photo metfan4life 21 Aug 2021

View PostCoralRed, on 21 August 2021 - 02:16 AM, said:

Wow! Where is everybody? I logged in tonight for the first time I think after moving away.

I have checked in here though without logging in, though. I lived in the area too many years not to maintain an interest in New Jersey and NYC.

I hope there are no big surprises like we had with Superstore Sandy. I will check back tomorrow.

This will be no where like sandy
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vascudave's Photo vascudave 21 Aug 2021

My bro in law lives in westerly RI
He’s getting ready. Luckily for him he is elevated from the river
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robbbs's Photo robbbs 21 Aug 2021

12z nam shows landfall over RI; then a slow retrograde to the Hudson Valley of NY. Heavy rains with bull's eyes of 3-6" qpf. South Jersey gets 16" which is wacky. Nam shows a norlum type band in that area with two bouts of heavy rain. The take-away is that models have shifted the track to landfall just east of Montauk. If the rest of the 12z model suite shows similar, look for the NHC 2:00 PM update to shift the cone east by about 75 miles.
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weathergeek87's Photo weathergeek87 21 Aug 2021

View Postrobbbs, on 21 August 2021 - 09:38 AM, said:

12z nam shows landfall over RI; then a slow retrograde to the Hudson Valley of NY. Heavy rains with bull's eyes of 3-6" qpf. South Jersey gets 16" which is wacky. Nam shows a norlum type band in that area with two bouts of heavy rain. The take-away is that models have shifted the track to landfall just east of Montauk. If the rest of the 12z model suite shows similar, look for the NHC 2:00 PM update to shift the cone east by about 75 miles.

Do you think the heavy rainfall still makes it towards the Delaware River?
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metfan4life's Photo metfan4life 21 Aug 2021

Nyc looks to get heavy flooding rain

End of LI looks to get alot of wind and surge
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metfan4life's Photo metfan4life 21 Aug 2021

I'm in Maryland now with my fiancee . She's worried that we will get stuck in the hurricane because she heard from the news that it's going to be bad. Debasio also said it's going to be bad


Media sucks
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weathergeek87's Photo weathergeek87 21 Aug 2021

Wonder if western areas will have to contend with the rain aspect and eastern areas moreso the wind.
Robbbs - NWS speaking about that Norlun development over south Jersey.
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weathergeek87's Photo weathergeek87 21 Aug 2021

Areas of heavy rain over NYC moving NW. first batch reformed over Sussex Co. pouring here. Next batch over NYC again (same area so flood advisory up) moving in same NW’erly fashion.
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weathergeek87's Photo weathergeek87 21 Aug 2021

It really depends on where this norlun sets up as to who will get the brunt of the rainfall
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weathergeek87's Photo weathergeek87 21 Aug 2021

NWS latest graphics show western and NW NJ 4-6” of rain with a spot in West Milford at 6-10”. Nuts.
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metfan4life's Photo metfan4life 21 Aug 2021

Models have already failed with the pre



Close to 1.50 for JFK
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metfan4life's Photo metfan4life 21 Aug 2021

4.25 inches so far in Central Park

Wow
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metfan4life's Photo metfan4life 21 Aug 2021

Subway closings in Brooklyn

Flooding everywhere

This is bad
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NYCSNOWMAN's Photo NYCSNOWMAN 22 Aug 2021

Hello..all hope everyone staying safe..I believe I read. As of 2am Brooklyn over 6 inch of rain...crzy
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