63 replies to this topic

[robbbs]

It appears that an extended period of moderate+ rains may move in to most of our region from central/eastern PA later this evening/tonight. This would be in keeping with what many on this board have been thinking with respect to this event -- not much in the way of severe weather, but a good soaking rain is likely. There is an additional area of interest to keep an eye on for later tonight and that is the northern tier of central PA near the NY border, which has a line of very strong training thunderstorms -- generally moving east, but with a southeastward component as it's draped along the southward sagging front. As always, this will evolve into a nowcast to see exactly how we're affected when these areas near our region.

[lab94]

Thanks robbs. I saw that line form on the tail end of the storms that started in western NY. And continues to head east along the NY & PA line.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...amp;lightning=1

[rgwp96]

I think most areas will receive between .50/ 1.0 of rain with some isolated 1.5 /2 inch amounts.

[robbbs]

Lab, yes that's the area that may enhance the precip for some parts of our region overnight. BTW, bought my father-in-law a small motor boat to get him out of the house during part of his extended (3 month visit) when he arrives on Monday. See you on the reservoirs.

[Snowamp5]

About to get blasted here now.....filling in fast, thunder heard........

[satellite_eyes]

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Lab, yes that's the area that may enhance the precip for some parts of our region overnight. BTW, bought my father-in-law a small motor boat to get him out of the house during part of his extended (3 month visit) when he arrives on Monday. See you on the reservoirs.

Wow 3 months again this summer huh robbbs?  It may be time to build that guest house, like down the shore or in the poconos or something LOL.

[weathergeek87]

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About to get blasted here now.....filling in fast, thunder heard........

Yea snowamp it's bearing down on my cousin who e-mailed me to give me an update, so you are not far behind.

I-84 between Middletown (intersection of Rt 17) and points east just got out of that training storm. Precip totals are probably very impressive from middletown points east along I-84.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...&rainsnow=0

[weathergeek87]

That orange county training t-storm weakened and then re-gained strength and now it looks nasty rolling through connecticut.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...&rainsnow=0

[lab94]

Quote

Lab, yes that's the area that may enhance the precip for some parts of our region overnight. BTW, bought my father-in-law a small motor boat to get him out of the house during part of his extended (3 month visit) when he arrives on Monday. [glow=red,2,300]See you on the reservoirs.[/glow]

I'll hold you to it! Going tomorrow to Echo lk to get the permits for the lakes.

[rgwp96]

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Lab, yes that's the area that may enhance the precip for some parts of our region overnight. BTW, bought my father-in-law a small motor boat to get him out of the house during part of his extended (3 month visit) when he arrives on Monday. See you on the reservoirs.

only one problem with this, motor boats are limited to only a few reservoirs, not including any of the newark watershed ones.  You can go to MOnksvilee or greenwood lake.  Of course if you are talking about electric motors, than you have no problems.

[robbbs]

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I'll hold you to it! Going tomorrow to Echo lk to get the permits for the lakes.

Lab, I already have them. Make sure you also get the permit for usage of the boat ramps. Echo Lake is actually my favorite of the Newark Watershed lakes, although I plan to explore the 3 others as well.

[robbbs]

Quote

only one problem with this, motor boats are limited to only a few reservoirs, not including any of the newark watershed ones.  You can go to MOnksvilee or greenwood lake.  Of course if you are talking about electric motors, than you have no problems.

Rgwp96, you're entirely correct. We normally use the trolling (electric) motors anyway and prefer the reservoirs over Greenwood Lake. Have never been on Monksville, despite how close I am to it. Good chance we will, however, as my father-in-law plans to do some night fishing also and it's one of the few that allows it.

[icehater]

We'll see if this holds together for Stormchaser and I ( and Snowfreak, wherever he is, among others here in Monmouth county). So far just some light rain and one thunder clap out to my WNW. We've only had .14" of rain since yesterday in my yard. One VERY brief heavy burst around 11 last night, some lightning north of us overnight and some decent but again brief rains this morning. It's a steambath out there and the warmest 78 degrees I've ever felt.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busi...eMapLayer=radar

[LongIslandWthr]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
646 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2007

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ007-008-011-012-NJZ002>006-011-
NYZ072>081-060945-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
646 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS FORECAST
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$

[Stormchaser]

Ice,

As expected, my presence here in Monmouth county has caused the entire SE PA line to evaporate. I told you - don't expect any T-storms until I'm away again. We've received 0.17" since last night, but upwards of .35" fell in southeastern Monmouth. Our only hope is the thin convective line well NW of us - however - daylight is dwindling rapidly. The LLJ may intensify as it did last night, possibly sustaining some of the storms through 11-1am, but we'll see.

[satellite_eyes]

LOL Storm.  It really is a steambath out there.  Felt like a 90 degree day when I left Newark before.

[robbbs]

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LOL Storm.  It really is a steambath out there.  Felt like a 90 degree day when I left Newark before.

Yes, that southern area of precip really weakened and diminished in areal coverage. Up here, still hoping that squall line over northern PA makes it to northern NJ. Parts of Orange County NY look like a lock for moderate to heavy rains overnight.

[OrangeCountyWeather06]

73.8 here in Cornwall NY, it got dark here. And by looking at the radar it doesn't get much better. A couple of storms to my northwest.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...mp;avg_off=9999

[icehater]

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Ice,

As expected, my presence here in Monmouth county has caused the entire SE PA line to evaporate. I told you - don't expect any T-storms until I'm away again. We've received 0.17" since last night, but upwards of .35" fell in southeastern Monmouth. Our only hope is the thin convective line well NW of us - however - daylight is dwindling rapidly. The LLJ may intensify as it did last night, possibly sustaining some of the storms through 11-1am, but we'll see.

Storm,

You can tell from my post that I had my doubts on that line holding up. But i certainly didn't think it would evaporate like that either. The line well NW and the additional development in Pa is our last hope. We really have gotten very little rain from all this miserable cloud cover. Temps for the weekend have been badly estimated till now and IMO many forecasts are still to low on Saturday. I'm expecting 92-94 Saturday and 94-97 Sunday and Monday. Even tomorrow has a shot at 90. The lawns and shrubs need this rain in advance of that upcoming heat.

[rgwp96]

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I think most areas will receive between .50/ 1.0 of rain with some isolated 1.5 /2 inch amounts.

Oh my mistake, I forgot to put a 0 in front of my amounts, its should be 0.05/.10 ;D