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[isobar65]

SUNDAY FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE IS THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS. BUT FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE IT MAY BE MORE FOREBODING. THERE IS A GENERAL MDL AGREEMENT ON A RELATIVE BASIS OF
THE THREE DAYS (TDY/SUN/MON)....SUN HAS THE GREATEST FCSTD INSTAB. THIS IS TRUE IF ONE IS LOOKING AT THE GFS OR WRF-NMM AND AT LEAST THRU ITS RUN TIME PERIOD THE INFERRED CAN RGEM ALSO AGREES. THE WRF-NMM FCSTS MORE CAPE (2000-3000J), A LOWER L.I. (TO -8C), SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST TTS AND WEAK THETA E ADVT. THE SREF MEAN FOR CAPE SUNDAY IS SIM TO TDY...THE OP WRF MAY BE OVERCOOKING THE GROUND (SAW A 34C AT PHL FOR A 2M TEMP ON BUFKIT) A LTL BIT. THE NEXT APCHG
SHORT WAVE WILL ONLY ASSIST. PWATS ARE ALSO FCSTD TO REACH CLOSE TO 2". IF ONE WOULD LOOK AT THE WRF-NMM FCSTD WIND FIELD AT PHL FOR SUN AFTN...ITS PRETTY MUCH 0000. EVEN FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. THE GFS AT LEAST HAS A BIT MORE
WIND, BUT BOTH MDLS SHOW A MORE SATURATED COLUMN OF AIR. THIS MIGHT BE TOO MOIST FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX (AGAIN THE FCSTD MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK)...BUT IF THE MDLS ARE JUST OVERDOING THE MID
LVL MSTR A BIT...WE WOULD BE POISED FOR SOME WET MICROBURSTS (AS PER LATEST SWODY2). FOR NOW THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE HVY RAIN BECAUSE OF THE LTL FCSTD MOVEMENT.

DON/T BELIEVE THE TSRAS WILL GO QUIETLY INTO THE NGT ON SUN NGT AND WE WILL KEEP HIER POPS INTO THE EVE. DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SHORT WAVE EXITS MONDAY WILL HAVE A BEARING ON HOW WET EVENT MONDAY
WILL BE. THE FNT WILL STILL BE STRUGGLING TO COME THRU AND WHL THEWRF-NMM IS FASTER...THIS IS THE FIRST SUMMER SYSTEM THAT HAS DRAGGED ITS HEALS IN RADITIONAL SUMMER FASHION. AS SUCH WE WILL HONOR A
WEST-TO-EAST POP GRADIENT, BUT WON/T BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-NMM.