6 replies to this topic

[isobar65]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
249 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>077-061200-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
249 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS FORECAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY COULD TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

[weatherbowl]

They are also showing Tuesday and Wednesday as the only days this coming week above normal in temps. This forecast may becomimg more complex as weak cold fronts like last night come thru the area but do not get too far south. So depending on how strong and far south they go we may continue with the heat wave or we may not. It does look like the fronts as they come in as cool and go back as warm could increase the precip. chances a lot. Any thoughts?

[icehater]

Forecasters may be setting themselves up for another GFS burn. The NAM is a lot less contentious with the fronts and shotwaves riding them after tomorrow, than the GFS is. In this summer of NAM triumphs I'd be leery of the GFS, particulary with its cooler bias that plunges fronts further south than they usually get.

[Stormchaser]

Agreed Ice. The 18z/00z NAM keeps us > +20c at 850mb throughout it's forecast period and the 18z GFS has trended quite a bit warmer. We'll have a few episodes of strong to potentially severe convection this week (more notable for producing hvy rains) - tomorrow morning/midday, Wednesday eve/night, and Friday. I don't see any below normal days this week -- on the contrary, we'll be in the mid 90's w/ isolated 100F readings Tuesday, 90s Wednesday, Thurs/Fri could also be near 90F dependent on cloudcover/precip. Stifling humidity is returning tomorrow, and stays with us the entire week. Overall I'd characterize this week in three words: hot, humid, wet.

Wednesday night actually interests me the most in terms of severe potential right now.

[icehater]

Quote

Agreed Ice. The 18z/00z NAM keeps us > +20c at 850mb throughout it's forecast period and the 18z GFS has trended quite a bit warmer. We'll have a few episodes of strong to potentially severe convection this week (more notable for producing hvy rains) - tomorrow morning/midday, Wednesday eve/night, and Friday. I don't see any below normal days this week -- on the contrary, we'll be in the mid 90's w/ isolated 100F readings Tuesday, 90s Wednesday, Thurs/Fri could also be near 90F dependent on cloudcover/precip. Stifling humidity is returning tomorrow, and stays with us the entire week. Overall I'd characterize this week in three words: hot, humid, wet.

Wednesday night actually interests me the most in terms of severe potential right now.

Couldn't agree more. We need to find a disagreement on weather one of these days.

[Jimrin1967]

Quote

Forecasters may be setting themselves up for another GFS burn. The NAM is a lot less contentious with the fronts and shotwaves riding them after tomorrow, than the GFS is. In this summer of NAM triumphs I'd be leery of the GFS, particulary with its cooler bias that plunges fronts further south than they usually get.

I can't figure out why people get burned to a crisp by the GFS and go back to it time and again.  The NAM has by far out performed the GFS on these events.  My personal take on this is that there will be heavy rain, but very isolated severe weather.  This is Monday I am referring to.  Wednesday may be another matter all together.  But lets get the first one right first  8)

[LongIslandWthr]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
618 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2007

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-071030-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
618 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION AFTER DAYBREAK MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A WEAK AND
BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CONNECTICUT. A FEW ISOLATED TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE
TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY COULD TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$