30 replies to this topic

[summer]

Craig Allen, who is in my opinion the best met in the local area, - upfront - admits when he gets it wrong, knows the snow/rain issues better than anyone and 90% of the time is dead on with his rain snow line, stated without fear that there will not be much snow before this thing changes to rain and by the time it changes back to snow there will not be much precipitation left - I know the complexity of the storm has kept hopes alive but this thing has been pretty clear and stable since Sunday early morning... The cold air will retreat as the low tracks up the coast - Most areas within 25 miles or so of NYC will not see much snow out of this event... Temps in NYC and coastal areas will hit the mid 30s on Wednesday with a strong east/northeast wind...

Yes things can change but Allen was very clear on this one and I think that if things were going to shift he would have left the door open.... I would have loved a huge storm - just think it will not happen with this one and we may be even disappointed with how little snow we actually get in most coastal and urban areas...

Just my opinion, not happy about it but also pretty confident in it.

[NYCSNOWMAN]

With all due respect to you and Mr.Allen "models" just GOooo so far.

Many people (met's and experts) are saying this will be a "Nowcast" event

So unless Mr. Allen is into "time-travel" it is REALLY too early to say>>Game Over

[summer]

snowman,
you might be right and I hope you are... I just do not think this will be the case based on consistent model runs and forecast trends since early sunday morning. hope i am wrong

[weatherbowl]

Summer it certainly looks like plenty of rain for the coast, maybe a quick shot of snow at the beginning. There are always uncertainties with these storms that no one will predict. It should still be interesting to watch and just a small change in the track can make quite a difference in the outcome.  There is also the chance of going back to snow on the tail end of the storm. I never bought into the blizzard but I was hoping. I learned a long time ago not to get to excited more than  3 days or so before the storm hits.

[LarryAck]

I get this feeling (maybe wishful thinking) that until this storm forms, they will not have this pinned down.  In addition, its the middle of February, the perfect time of year, for the storm to stay over the ocean, as one big storm.  I'm going to be patient and wait to hear those words the new model is showing a colder solution, and more snow for the NY Metro area.  In addition, I'm a JB fan, and he believes that 90% of this storm will fall as frozen precip.  

[satellite_eyes]

Based on my experience, these types of situations basically NEVER turn out well.  And I'm sure Robbbs can back me up on that I have no doubt in my mind.  That's not to say inland areas won't be get a few inches of snow but just when things look good the mix will set in.  That's the reality and again that's based on a lot of past experience.  And summer you are 100% in saying that whenever there is even the slightest hint that the coastal areas will mix, they should know they are in trouble.  I've always believed in that theory as well.

[jjvesnow]

Its Summer doing what she does best!!!  BEING NEGATIVE!!

[summer]

Good points Satellite - I just don't see there being much of a chance within 25 miles of the coast - Once again I cannot tell you how much I respect Allen and believe that if things still had a chance he would be very clear about this.... In fact, my guess will be that we might be surprised on Wednesday morning just how little snow we get with temps by daybreak already above freezing... Those dreaded words..."temps rising during the night." As I have often said I cannot think of one time when the mets have called for a change to rain.. not just a chance but called for a change and it did not happen in NYC or along the coast...

[FreeRideNJ]

Quote

Good points Satellite - I just don't see there being much of a chance within 25 miles of the coast - Once again I cannot tell you how much I respect Allen and believe that if things still had a chance he would be very clear about this.... In fact, my guess will be that we might be surprised on Wednesday morning just how little snow we get with temps by daybreak already above freezing... Those dreaded words..."temps rising during the night." As I have often said I cannot think of one time when the mets have called for a change to rain.. not just a chance but called for a change and it did not happen in NYC or along the coast...

I sincerely hope that if we end up getting blasted with a nice snowfall or bad ice storm that you can come on here and admit not only that you were wrong but that maybe your crystal ball met is a mere mortal.  He may be right, but if he is saying that this thing is over right now he is an irresponsible fool as this could very well become a very dangerous situation for some parts of the area.

[summer]

Freeride,

He is not saying that this "thing is over" no one could say with any certainty that this thing could not change on a dime - what I am telling you is that based on his forecast and he sounding quite confident in his call I take from that as well as the consistency of the models and the fact that every other local met (that I know of) including Bill Evans are quite clear in the call for a change to rain... that this thing is over... Put a fork in her

If we get pounded with snow I will do what I always do when I am wrong state that I was dead wrong and move on... hope that you would have the same guts if it does rain on Wednesday to stand up and state that Summer was correct in thinking this thing over at 5:30PM on Monday night...

[wishcast_hater]

I can remember only one time when a change to rain was called and it started snowing harder and harder.  I was outside shoveling and remember saying to myself damn, it doesnt look like its going to rain.  I went inside and they changed the forecast to stay as snow.  This was back in around the early 90's.

This storm doesnt look good for us.  Why even waste time waiting in front of the computer for the new models to come out.  Im throwing in the towel, once the models get in on the rain situation it sticks, thats the only thing its good at.  They cant handle snow for sh*t.

[FreeRideNJ]

Quote

Freeride,

He is not saying that this "thing is over" no one could say with any certainty that this thing could not change on a dime - what I am telling you is that based on his forecast and he sounding quite confident in his call I take from that as well as the consistency of the models and the fact that every other local met (that I know of) including Bill Evans are quite clear in the call for a change to rain... that this thing is over... Put a fork in her

If we get pounded with snow I will do what I always do when I am wrong state that I was dead wrong and move on... hope that you would have the same guts if it does rain on Wednesday to stand up and state that Summer was correct in thinking this thing over at 5:30PM on Monday night...

Where I am situated I feel pretty confident that rain will not be the issue but I will be happy to post up pics and snow/ice totals for you. 

[robbbs]

Summer, I understand your point but here is a counter argument to your logic. You mention that Craig Allen, for whom you have great respect, spoke with high confidence about this not being much of a big deal for the coast and a quick change to rain. He may or may not be correct. But here is the point -- if you would have spoken with Craig on Saturday night or Sunday morning, he would have said to you that the models are showing the possibility of a major blizzard for NY Metro. He may not have bought into it, or he may have said that we have to wait for future runs, but he would not have been able to deny that the models were showing a blizzard. Like any good met, he uses the models as guidance and then forms his own analyses and opinions. So now he's saying not much snow for the coast and he's saying this largely because the models have trended to that scenario. But what if the models trend back? What does he do then? He may not be a model hugger (evidently the worst thing you can call a pro met) and he may stick with his instincts and go against. However, I would venture to guess that it's more likely that he would hedge his forecast or even change it outright. The point is that with all due respect to Craig Allen's confidence, some of us see some things that prevent us from writing this thing off entirely just yet. As for Craig's confidence, it can be shaken in a hurry.

[wntrstrmwrng]

All I can say is that I am glad I enjoyed the excitement and buzz that we had going on Saturday.  Sure, I am disappointed now and will be even more disappointed when we don't get all snow and all my hopes are crushed but I still had Saturday.  If this doesn't pan out - I am going to begin thinking about summer.

[NYBrit]

And thunderstorms lol

[snowfreak188]

i dont think this is over!!!

[wntrstrmwrng]

I don't want to think it is either and probably won't until it is over.  Fact of the matter is that the runs have been pretty consistent for a while now and all we have going in our favor is a miracle.  Just another disappointment is a winter season in which disappointment is all that we've had.  I would be shocked if things changed in our favor.  Just preparing for the inevitable...

[summer]

Robbs,
See your point about Allen and think that his call is based on the models, yes but also his instincts in calling rain/snow/mix events for over 20 years in this area - I have never seen such a bust ever this late in the game - every met would have to be wrong for this thing now to turn into a raging snowstorm - could it happen, sure - but don't think it very likely especially since all the models have been trending in a consistent rain bias since Sunday morning even the bullish euro

[NYBrit]

And what about the fact that some models appear to be trending back the other way?  I don't we'll know until this storm is upon us one way or the other.

[redjar2]

I'm just wondering when Mt. Holly will issue any kind of warnings or advisories.  They must have no idea what to expect like the rest of us.