114 replies to this topic

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

Long range looks very interesting to me. I just saw the latest GFS and it continues to go in the direction of a secondary storm developing off Virginia Sunday night and taking the storm up the coast. It even has a major snowstorm in New York city. Ok, let's not get too excited just yet, but one has to only see that the NAO is going negative again, and just like the last time it went negative, a storm will end up on the East coast. If you go just by the GFS right now, snow would develop in the Plains and spread east into the Appalachians, than the secondary storm will take over and snow would spread from Virginia to New England. This certainly one to watch because the cold air is coming in and that means the potential for snow over a large area...

[metfan4life]

funny guy lol

[dragons1225]

i wouldnt throw his idea away yet. noaa just put snow in my forecast for sunday and monday... the gfs is actually better 5-7 days away from a storm then 2-4. so ya never kno..obviously henry is a lil crazy but i still read his blog everyday...keeps the weather fun lol

[metfan4life]

i hope this comes true,i think it will becuase my highs next week is gonna be inthe low to mid 30s so theres the cold air,i think we might see something big,wuts the jma saying

[Nero Lance]

Funny thing is that the Accu-weather site has sunny for Sunday.... ???

[NYBrit]

Well you'll get your snowstorm then!  Seems to me accucrap 15 day outlook is the worst outlook going  ;)

[metfan4life]

henry updated,hes saying that a major storm along the east coasts that blows up,then he says the extreme case is that the 195 corridor gets shut down  :ohmy:

[lab94]

Quote

henry updated,hes saying that a major storm along the east coasts that blows up,then he says the extreme case is that the 195 corridor gets shut down  :ohmy:

That meens storm canceled :ohmy:

[metfan4life]

ha lol,hes been a jinx

[metfan4life]

henry saying that he hats to  use the B word, but that is the extreme of the storm he says :ohmy:

[IdolikesnowKocin]

Just read his posts at accu for fun, but dont take him seriously :mad:, he changes his thoughts and predictions by each model run...He's no met IMO, he's a model reader, which most of us can already do  :biggrin:

[metfan4life]

i dont but it funny though

[Mike_The_Golfer]

Accuweather post from earlier:



By the weekend, the low and other ingredients will be in place to create a large winter storm that could spread rain across the southern Plains and substantial snow from the central Rockies across the central Plains to the northern Great Lakes.

Snow could reach northern New England by late Sunday, with strong winds developing behind the system early next week.

Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity is monitoring computer models that show the potential development of the storm. Margusity reports "I still believe the storm stays in the southern branch of the jet and does not get picked up by the northern branch until it reaches the Appalachians. At that point, we get secondary development along the (east) coast."

[robbbs]

Quote

henry updated,hes saying that a major storm along the east coasts that blows up,then he says the extreme case is that the 195 corridor gets shut down  :ohmy:

He posted this yesterday, even though he had today's date erroneously listed -- sort of tells you something about him if he can't even get the date right. He's since hedged as the new data came in.

[metfan4life]

henry update

he is saying that he thinks that there are errors in the gfs and euro models

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?...og=meteomadness

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

GFS GOING WAY TO STRONG...EURO HAS A BLIZZARD FOR THE LAKES...NAM COMING INTO THE GAME....

1. I think the real key to this storm is how the models handle the system off California. The GFS run is now taking that system and whipping it through the Southwest and making a huge storm from Nevada to the front range of Colorado which looks odd to me this morning. Why would the model jump on the first system and develop a storm right-off-the-bat while the main energy has yet to get involved. The whole evolution of the storm on the model just looks very goofy to me this morning...

2. The EURO is playing that same game, but has a more extreme look, one that I hope does not come true. Why, it would play out as an extreme event for the Great Lakes. High Winds, falling temperatures and snow would create blizzard conditions. While the ingredients are there for it to happen, it just looks way overdone to me this morning...


3. The NAM is now getting into the game and it looks to me the model is handling the Southwest system much better. Instead of whipping the Southwest system out in advance of he energy coming through the West, it is waiting for the energy to arrive. It also has a much flatter look to the overall pattern which leads me to believe that later runs will show a flatter storm coming out instead of a big storm heading into the Lakes.

Updated: 11/28/2007 7:11 AM

[devilsfan0405]

I hope he's right but I swear, Henry is the Bagdhad Bob of weather forecasters.

"There will not be rain.  There will only be snow."  Meanwhile, it's raining cats and dogs outside. :biggrin:

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

If he is RIGHT!!!!!!!! he will never let us down, and can you imagine....he'll be predicting blizzards 25 days out...come on HENRY BRING THIS HOME....

[viking70]

I have to say that while I agree that Henry is usually a hypomaniac  ::) I think that his reasoning is good. (at least from my limited meteorological understanding) He is not the only one who thinks that the GFS is a bit nuts.  I think that once these storms hit the states and we start getting data as to how they will interact with other factors, the models may start coming around more towards the NAM.  Not saying that this is going to be a huge storm, but I do think that nothing is set in stone yet.

[Mike_The_Golfer]

Is JB still mum on this?