17 replies to this topic

[masco777]

The GFS and NAM 12z's are in.  They are actually stronger at the 700mb level.  We could really get some very cold air to mix down to the surface during the height of the storm 42-48hour model period. 

Actually a tad colder on both models as the storm looks a tad deeper.  The GFS has trended a bit west though and we shall see if a trend continues.

Area's still that should be concerned: south and east of a both I195 to philly and points south and East
www.stormmasco.blogspot.com

[yankee2274]

Masco, what is your current opinion on the Mid-Hudson Valley, around Poughkeepsie specifically :biggrin. Thanks.

[masco777]

It's tough because this has every indication of a more East you go heavier snowfall event.  You can squeeze out .25-.30 out with a higher snowratio during the event.  When the system does bomb you will see a wrap around event.  SO 6" would be safe to say at this point.  If this remains weak and further west you can cut that in half.  6" for GFS  3-5" for NAM.  I would go with the GFS

[yankee2274]

Thanks Masco. I am thinking around 5 inches. That is what we always seem to get in these events that are close calls for the coast.

[Stormchaser]

Good luck. I'll have my call ready by this evening.

[masco777]

stormchaser..your playing the wait game i see.  It's really the NAM vs GFS QPF battle. 

[Virgaman]

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Thanks Masco. I am thinking around 5 inches. That is what we always seem to get in these events that are close calls for the coast.

Yankee

Local forcasters up here are calling for 6 to 12 inches in our area of dutchess county, we are in a sweet spot remember that.

[Stormchaser]

Masco,

I hope you're right but I still have some major concerns with respect to positioning of the strongest 700mb frontogenesis / deformation zone; and therefore the area of heaviest snowfall. Several factors which are unfavorable for a moderate/significant snowfall event on the coast:

1) Lack of a strong 1030mb+ high over Quebec. We have a very weak 1015-20mb HP progged in southern Quebec but the real intense HP, of about 1035mb is well west near Michigan. That's far from ideal for coastal snow.

2) Secondly, the intensification process of this storm is one that's likely too little too late for locations NYC southwestward in terms of big snows. Tomorrow afternoon we'll have rain breaking out along the mid-atlantic coast / surface temps around 50 degrees. The low is progged at approximately 1002-1004mb once to the east of New Jersey -- 850mb temperatures are marginal as is; thus I don't see the dynamics needed to change the coast over to hvy accumulating snow. It's very possible that all areas are snowing heavily at 33-34 degrees at the second part of the storm -- but very little actually accumulates.

3) Thirdly, the pattern is one that's anything BUT favorable for meaningful snow on the coast. Very poor atlantic signal with no blocking or 50-50 low to hold in strong HP over southern Quebec -- thus we have the SE-ridge becoming more noticable with every model run. It's been my belief that seasonal trends are a crucial factor here as the pattern's virtually unchanged from 2-3 weeks ago. There's nothing that's going to stop this from being a coastal hugger -- we have 36 more hours of trending.

Finally, the marginal surface temps are huge. You can have moderate snow at 33-34 degrees but it's not going to do anything other than look pretty. None of it's going to stick.

I'll have a call by this evening but I continue to favor a rainier/warmer solution on the coast with a moderate snowfall event in NW NJ and into southern New England.

[masco777]

absolutly agree with ya..The intensity of this storm will be a HUGEEE factor to how this thing plays out.  Im hopeful that this storm does bomb and the 850 and 700 mb lows wrap quickly.  I see this happening north of Atlantic city and as you saw the levels above 1000mb are close to freezing.  We do need a stronger solution for down here.  confidence is high though that north of the city are 6+" IMO.  and then the EURO comes in and says out to sea track.. This does have bust potential.

[robbbs]

Wait and see is the smart play on this event at this time. Too many unknowns, model differences, and marginal temps that render any snowfall number prediction and/or map highly suspect. Add to that also that the models this season have had a tendency to not zero in on the correct solution until within 24 hours of the event, sometimes even less, and have changed dramatically in that last period.

[metfan4life]

Like u said before,the 0z runs tonight will tell the story,well i hope

[masco777]

as a forecaster..in my case a student..i like to put out something ie snowfall maps the day before the event.  Especially on these boards..It's a good learning thing and you can revise it and learn from your mistakes

[yankee2274]

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Yankee

Local forcasters up here are calling for 6 to 12 inches in our area of dutchess county, we are in a sweet spot remember that.

Virga, I just don't see that. I will stick with my prediction from yesterday. It is as follows:

1) Orange, Ulster, Dutchess counties 5-6 inches (including Poughkeepsie NY,  5.5 inches of frozen precip).

2) Central Jersey-4-5 inches frozen precip.

3) NYC- .5-1 inch frozen precip which will wash away , sorry.

4) Long Island- 40+ degree temps

5) all other coastal areas- no frozen precip.

[summer]

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as a forecaster..in my case a student..i like to put out something ie snowfall maps the day before the event.  Especially on these boards..It's a good learning thing and you can revise it and learn from your mistakes

Almost every close call between snow and rain busts along the coastal plain - I would say conservatively 70% of the time - My guess would be that most areas near NYC and south east of the city get less than 2 inches of wet snow with this event - hope I am wrong, but too many times we bust with these rain snow issues and get nothing - Craig Allen is good with these, hope he is on FOX tonight at 10pm

[snowshoe]

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Virga, I just don't see that. I will stick with my prediction from yesterday. It is as follows:

1) Orange, Ulster, Dutchess counties 5-6 inches (including Poughkeepsie NY,  5.5 inches of frozen precip).

2) Central Jersey-4-5 inches frozen precip.

3) NYC- .5-1 inch frozen precip which will wash away , sorry.

4) Long Island- 40+ degree temps

5) all other coastal areas- no frozen precip.

I think everyone is just a little too early with the snow totals.  It is hard to tell where the heavy bands will fall.  I cant tell you how many times before a storm my area was forcast to get hammered and we end up with a few inches and other times I was suppose to get nothing and end up with over a foot.  It is nice to see everyones totals but until that storm forms and gets close, no one will no where that sweet spot is.  It will be nice to see who was the most acurate by the end. Oh by the way you forgot us in North Jersey here  

[yankee2274]

Sorry, North Jersey should get 4.5.-5.5 inches 40 miles away from the coast to 100 miles from the coast. Any further west then not much. Any closer to coast, all mush. As I have stated though, my totals are scientifically based like some of the others. Mine are just my gut, reading from the posts, and past history.

[snowfreak188]

DT, just updated his map im sooo close to 12+ lol  http://www.wxrisk.com/1STCALL.jpg

[waywayanda mt.]

whats your best guess for the high elevations in Vernon,West Milford area?