43 replies to this topic

[Virgaman]

As far as the current storm, well right now the things I have described I think with the posts below are working, maybe not perfectly but you be the judge. The cold air is making its move southwest the storm will bomb out along the Virginia Capes and head toward Cape Cod and the war that results will make this a truly memorable storm.

what does he mean "maybe not perfectly?????  is he taking something back about the backlash snows?  maybe i am reading into this too much

[icehater]

Virga - lot of bad model trends back NW today. I'm busy and not paying close attention but the Euro came in with a real warm solution and a coastal that moves due north west of Boston. Boston would reach 45-50+ which is hard to imagine given they have a dew point below zero right now. Using the Euro even you are in troiuble up there. We have two camps of Mets - one who are following the models becuse the models are reaching a consensus of a complete coastal hugger and others who feel the coastal storm will run east of Cape Cod and think the models are wrong. I think that's why you see a confusing post from JB. I see a High building into Quebec and that's usually the perfect place for a storm in our area and would make me think the storm runs to Cape Cod. But the models say otherwise. So now even if the coastal forms in time we need to be very concerned about track.

What's really bad is the set-up of a track inside Boston - if the Euro is right - sets up Oswego for 2-3 feet of snow and I'm sure those folks don't want any part of this as a storm like this on top of all their existing snow is going to lead to loss of life.

[devilsfan0405]

Quote

Virga - lot of bad model trends back NW today. I'm busy and not paying close attention but the Euro came in with a real warm solution and a coastal that moves due north west of Boston. Boston would reach 45-50+ which is hard to imagine given they have a dew point below zero right now. Using the Euro even you are in troiuble up there. We have two camps of Mets - one who are following the models becuse the models are reaching a consensus of a complete coastal hugger and others who feel the coastal storm will run east of Cape Cod and think the models are wrong. I think that's why you see a confusing post from JB. I see a High building into Quebec and that's usually the perfect place for a storm in our area and would make me think the storm runs to Cape Cod. But the models say otherwise. So now even if the coastal forms in time we need to be very concerned about track.

What's really bad is the set-up of a track inside Boston - if the Euro is right - sets up Oswego for 2-3 feet of snow and I'm sure those folks don't want any part of this as a storm like this on top of all their existing snow is going to lead to loss of life.

Ice...isn't the Euro generally meant for tracking 2-3+ days out?

[Virgaman]

my gosh, no wonder why i am going insane here between hearing great news, then two seconds later bad news wow.

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

Hate to hear this from ICE....just took the past 3 full days out of me....:(

[icehater]

No - Euro is good at all times - long range and short range. Globals are bad at mesoscale which require the resolutiuon of the Nam, MM5 and other higher resolution short rangers.

But what is great now is you don't need the models for anything but QPF now. All the players are on the map and are trackable. Watch the pressure falls on the SC coast. When it exceeds the mid west storm's low pressure it has surface control. Next watch the path of the 850MB low. It controls the temps at that key atmospheric level. It will eventually be drawn toward the storm that gains control. Next watch the direction of the SC low. This is so crucial. The more NE the better. Lindsay storm moved due NE to the benchmark. Lastly watch the radars. We are thru with modelling at this point. What you need to do is compare where the surface low and 850MB Low are versus where the model of choice thought they would be. That, radar watching and ground reports are what Robbbs means by nowcasting. Point of no return is this evening.

BTW - we had snow that was wet in consistency down here. Even in 25 degree air it didn't stick to sidewalks or pavements or even cars. It was more like 33-34 degree snow. Now we are having flurries again and the snow is drier and more representative of mid 20's temps. My air temp is 26.8.

[roughsurf]

Ice, does this sound any similiar to the "Lindsay Storm" I think you and others were referring too?  As I recall some of the post from earlier yesterday, it was projected(with out models at that time) to bring mostly rain and then only at the last minute bring snows to the region. How does the setup still look?

I guess we'll know in a few hours on the track and bombing of the secondary low off the SE coast...

[FreeRideNJ]

Quote

No - Euro is good at all times - long range and short range. Globals are bad at mesoscale which require the resolutiuon of the Nam, MM5 and other higher resolution short rangers.

But what is great now is you don't need the models for anything but QPF now. All the players are on the map and are trackable. Watch the pressure falls on the SC coast. When it exceeds the mid west storm's low pressure it has surface control. Next watch the path of the 850MB low. It controls the temps at that key atmospheric level. It will eventually be drawn toward the storm that gains control. Next watch the direction of the S low. This is so crucial. the more NE the better. Lindsay storm mobved due NE to the benchmark. Lastly watch the radars. We are thru with modelling at this point. What you need to do is compare where the surface low and 850MB Low are versus where the model of choice thought they would be. That, radar watching and ground reports are what Robbbs means by nowcasting.

Good stuff Ice.  Let's hope for a Cape Cod track, and not Western Boston suburbs.

[winterstorm123456789]

i live in western suffolk LI what are the chances of a snow day for kids? when will we know more?

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

Either way thx Ice for getting on to the board with some knowledge that we can appreciate, even though we might not like to hear what your saying at this point...

[Virgaman]

Ice

i have been hearing too that the south carolina low is moving north east?? yes??

[roughsurf]

Ice, posted at the same time. Great things to watch for. How do you track the 850 low ? How is it represented on the surface maps or even is it showed on there ?

Thanks for any info, I know you're "busy" at work...

[winterstorm123456789]

so the way the storm is moving is it good for us Long islanderss haha

[icehater]

This is exactly like the Lindsay storm and everything is going exactly that way - in tah a southern coastal is going to take over . But the Lindsay secondary which bombed and literall obliterated the primary - moved to the benchmark. If we get the synoptic dynamics way of the Lindsay storm but the track is a coast hugger then it won't matter as a coast hugger is not good.

Virga - too eraly to track the SC movement. It's just coming together. How that tracks and how fast it bombs are the key to everything.  

[FreeRideNJ]

Quote

This is exactly like the Lindsay storm and everything is going exactly that way - in tah a southern coastal is going to take over . But the Lindsay secondary which bombed and literall obliterated the primary - moved to the benchmark. If we get the synoptic dynamics way of the Lindsay storm but the track is a coast hugger then it won't matter as a coast hugger is not good.

Virga - too eraly to track the SC movement. It's just coming together. How that tracks and how fast it bombs are the key to everything.  

This roller coaster ride is making me queezy.    :-

[winterstorm123456789]

when do the new models come out that will tell us what is going to go on on LI

[robbbs]

Quote

Virga - lot of bad model trends back NW today. I'm busy and not paying close attention but the Euro came in with a real warm solution and a coastal that moves due north west of Boston. Boston would reach 45-50+ which is hard to imagine given they have a dew point below zero right now. Using the Euro even you are in troiuble up there. We have two camps of Mets - one who are following the models becuse the models are reaching a consensus of a complete coastal hugger and others who feel the coastal storm will run east of Cape Cod and think the models are wrong. I think that's why you see a confusing post from JB. I see a High building into Quebec and that's usually the perfect place for a storm in our area and would make me think the storm runs to Cape Cod. But the models say otherwise. So now even if the coastal forms in time we need to be very concerned about track.

What's really bad is the set-up of a track inside Boston - if the Euro is right - sets up Oswego for 2-3 feet of snow and I'm sure those folks don't want any part of this as a storm like this on top of all their existing snow is going to lead to loss of life.

Ice, I can't get inside JB's mind and I agree it was a confusing post by him. However, I don't share your view that anything the models did in any way made JB back off and/or that the model runs were bad. Even according to Mount Holly's mid-day update, the 12z GFS and NAM runs trended colder and they were concerned that they had under-estimated some of the snowfall forecasts for northwest NJ. JB said he's sticking with his earlier ideas and his video mentioned 15" just north and west of NYC and Philly, 20"+ northwest NJ, and 30" to 40" for the Poconos and northeast from there. I think it's a nowcast anyway and I'm sure there will be changes, just who knows how and in what direction? Let's remember that the models do not make the weather so at this point we just have to see how it all unfolds.

[Virgaman]

i hear ya, my stress level is so high and my work load is not getting done lol looking forward to some quiet weather days ahead lolol

[roughsurf]

Another quick question Ice, everyone says the models are for ???? not forecasting( i forgot what the word is I'm looking for, but I think you get what I mean), why does it seem that most of the mets are making their forecast closely match the models when it would seem that it's not written in stone yet? Does a coastal hugger seem that plausible with the High that is building in and other factors ?

[LongIslandWthr]

Quote

Another quick question Ice, everyone says the models are for ???? not forecasting( i forgot what the word is I'm looking for, but I think you get what I mean), why does it seem that most of the mets are making their forecast closely match the models when it would seem that it's not written in stone yet? Does a coastal hugger seem that plausible with the High that is building in and other factors ?

Models are for guidance