10 replies to this topic

[icehater]

verbatim - front-end 2-4" of snow, mixing issues at the height of heaviest precip, ends as snow. In this winter that's a big winner.

Soundings at 84:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb...mp;size=640x480

and at 96 - problems at 700-800MB thanks to an 850MB low that's a tad too far north:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb...mp;size=640x480

Precip thru 90 - this is all snow:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p06_096l.gif

Precip between 90-96 is .25-.50" but when those aloft temps get above freezing is not known this early. But from my experience you can almost bank on it being when the heaviest precip get overhead for those of us near the coast. The first 1-3 hours of this is probably snow. The last 3-6 is probably snow going to sleet in NYC and to even ZR far enough south.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p06_096l.gif

Healthy precip after 96 hours is the transition period back to snow but timing it is difficult:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p12_108l.gif

Could be nice 6-10" storm north of NYC and up to Boston.

Euro renders all of this useless as we all get rain and GFS SE bias has to be taken into serious consideration. I have a hard time buying the Euro as I don't think the storm gets strong enough to run to the Lakes. But that GFS SE bias - in the words of Brian McNamee - "is what it is".

[monmouthcoweather]

ugh, boston again

ice, what do you think about the wed. event here?

[vascudave]

i'm too scared / tired to get anywhere near excited.

[Stormchaser]

Ice,

Every GFS ensemble member depicts an all snow event -- start to finish -- for New Jersey/NYC. Operational 18z GFS is actually the warmest/furthest north solution.


Taken verbatim, some of these members would be 4-6"+ hits.

(18z GFS is the extreme top left corner)





With that being said the ensembles tend to have a SE bias at this range so I'd lean towards the operational slns.

[rgwp96]

Ill be more excited come tommorrow night, by the way painting the house sucks. have been at it all day long

[Stormchaser]

rgwp96, on Feb 18 2008, 08:56 PM, said:

Ill be more excited come tommorrow night, by the way painting the house sucks. have been at it all day long

That's the spirit RG -- too cheap to hire someone. :laugh: That hiring stuff is overrated. I've been putting the outside lights up for years and haven't broken a bone yet.

[rgwp96]

Stormchaser, on Feb 18 2008, 09:01 PM, said:

That's the spirit RG -- too cheap to hire someone. :laugh: That hiring stuff is overrated. I've been putting the outside lights up for years and haven't broken a bone yet.

you got that right.

[weatherbowl]

rgwp96, on Feb 18 2008, 08:56 PM, said:

Ill be more excited come tommorrow night, by the way painting the house sucks. have been at it all day long

I will take it more seriously if it still looks good come Wednesday late. Right now I will focus on Wednesday as we may get a few inches out of that.

[Stormchaser]

Weatherbowl - just posted in the other thread regarding the Wednesday clipper. Could pick up a fluffy 1-2" of snow if current proggs verify. We're about 45 hours from that event so confidence is fairly high.

[weatherbowl]

Stormchaser, on Feb 18 2008, 09:36 PM, said:

Weatherbowl - just posted in the other thread regarding the Wednesday clipper. Could pick up a fluffy 1-2" of snow if current proggs verify. We're about 45 hours from that event so confidence is fairly high.

Yea that one is looking pretty good. It also seems to be going in the right direction, meaning it is looking better as time goes on.

[icehater]

monmouthcoweather, on Feb 18 2008, 07:58 PM, said:

ugh, boston again

ice, what do you think about the wed. event here?

I'd go along with Storm and say an inch or so. Given that an inch of snow increases our seasonal amount by more than 25% it is a big deal this winter. But don't be overly greedy about it because the more potent the clipper the more south the late week system will likely be. I do think the Euro is out to lunch on the late week system. But if it ever verifies then this winter is even worse than my worst current thinking of it.