15 replies to this topic

[Mrsnow88]

Time is up lets see some estimates. LOL

[robbbs]

Mrsnow88, on Feb 22 2008, 05:22 AM, said:

Time is up lets see some estimates. LOL

No pro here, but I go with stormchaser's thoughts for NYC and western LI with 2" to 4", 3" to 6" for nearby burbs north and west of NYC, 6" to 10" for northwest NJ. I'm a bit more bullish at some upside potential if the mixing is delayed so I don't think 5" is impossible for NY metro, and 10"+ for northwest burbs. Apologies for central NJ as I've not focused on that area, although a significant ice event is possible in some areas there IMO.

[Mrsnow88]

Good call Robbs. Gonna be a nice storm for you up there.

[Stormchaser]

Robbbs and I are in virtual agreement for most areas -- 2 to 4" central NJ and western LI/NYC followed by icing. 3-6" in NW NJ. Where we differ (albeit slightly) -- I think the highest totals are 4-7" in Sussex/western passaic into the lower hudson valley.

[icehater]

Storm and I made almost identical calls. See the 5-6" thread you started.

[icehater]

According to TWC snow and 30 with .5 mile visibility here.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busi...om=recentsearch

But the real story is 27.1, Cloudy and unlimited visibility. Wish I knew where the hell TWC gets these readings.

[Mrsnow88]

I like Lee Goldberg's call. 3 to maybe 4 in NYC and split the Island almost in half. Central LI south only 1-3 then mix then rain. NYC and Northern LI he think will go from Snow to a mix no rain. And the 3,4 will be quick in the morning. Well see but really it's a Coin-Flip......."Ooogots"

[rgwp96]

2-4 for coast,4-6 inland(n+w of 287)

[icehater]

Lee could be right. Front end thumps can sometimes be surprises. But you're not going to see great variations from anyone because the storm lacks dynamics.

That heavy virga looks great on radar but as we used to say in Broklyn:

WHAT DO YOU GOT?

Answer: I got OOOGOTS.

[viking70]

I have a question. it seems like the storm is perhaps moving faster than predicted and more moisture is coming down in the DC area and pennsylvania. If the storm moves faster, would that cut down on the WAA and decrease the time for the sleet, freezing rain to occur before the low passes us by and we get the changeover to snow again, thus increasing snow totals? Love your input. Thanks.

[rgwp96]

icehater, on Feb 21 2008, 11:58 PM, said:

Lee could be right. Front end thumps can sometimes be surprises. But you're not going to see great variations from anyone because the storm lacks dynamics.

That heavy virga looks great on radar but as we used to say in Broklyn:

WHAT DO YOU GOT?

Answer: I got OOOGOTS.

snowing already in many spots of eastern pa

[rgwp96]

viking70, on Feb 22 2008, 12:00 AM, said:

I have a question. it seems like the storm is perhaps moving faster than predicted and more moisture is coming down in the DC area and pennsylvania. If the storm moves faster, would that cut down on the WAA and decrease the time for the sleet, freezing rain to occur before the low passes us by and we get the changeover to snow again, thus increasing snow totals? Love your input. Thanks.

it cant hurt but it can also mean the waa comes in quicker

[viking70]

Thanks. Could be interesting. Perhaps this storm may have some surprises.

[icehater]

viking70, on Feb 22 2008, 12:00 AM, said:

I have a question. it seems like the storm is perhaps moving faster than predicted and more moisture is coming down in the DC area and pennsylvania. If the storm moves faster, would that cut down on the WAA and decrease the time for the sleet, freezing rain to occur before the low passes us by and we get the changeover to snow again, thus increasing snow totals? Love your input. Thanks.

Not at all. The reason is that it also means the warm air is moving faster, particularly that this event is an over-running event. It's not just the snow that is faster, it's all the players of the storm.

Now there's a great difference if you get heavy developing WAA (warm air advection) precip from a lakes cutter. In that situation the system is the same but developing WAA precip ahead of it can flyoff and catch cold air before it retreats. But that is usually in potent lake cutters and it only happens occassionally. I've posted often about how an event like that caused the Baltimore/DC area to issue a completely unexpected 4-6" WSW in adavnce of a very powereful Lakes storm around the millenium. That's the storm that took us from 5 degrees to 55 degrees with severe T-storms in all of 12 hours. The WAA that brought the 4-6" to DC died out and never even gave us a flake. In fact in that storm we never even saw a flake despite a 5 degree temp late on Saturday afteroon and precip that started 8 hours later. But in DC the powerful WAA caught the cold air before it lifted out. But the next day they were over 60 degrees.

[icehater]

Some very light snow (tiny powdery flakes) starting to fall here.

[viking70]

icehater, on Feb 22 2008, 12:14 AM, said:

Not at all. The reason is that it also means the warm air is moving faster, particularly that this event is an over-running event. It's not just the snow that is faster, it's all the players of the storm.

Now there's a great difference if you get heavy developing WAA (warm air advection) precip from a lakes cutter. In that situation the system is the same but developing WAA precip ahead of it can flyoff and catch cold air before it retreats. But that is usually in potent lake cutters and it only happens occassionally. I've posted often about how an event like that caused the Baltimore/DC area to issue a completely unexpected 4-6" WSW in adavnce of a very powereful Lakes storm around the millenium. That's the storm that took us from 5 degrees to 55 degrees with severe T-storms in all of 12 hours. The WAA that brought the 4-6" to DC died out and never even gave us a flake. In fact in that storm we never even saw a flake despite a 5 degree temp late on Saturday afteroon and precip that started 8 hours later. But in DC the powerful WAA caught the cold air before it lifted out. But the next day they were over 60 degrees.

Thanks ice. Well let's hope for the best.