29 replies to this topic

[robbbs]

Puts out over 0.5" precip for most of the area on the Friday night clipper. Temps will be marginal on the coast and probably a snow to rain scenario there; some northern and western burbs may pick up 4" or 5" of snow.

[giants1156]

robbbs
wheres the snow/rain line setting up ? im in north central jersey. usually its rte.78 witch im south of

[robbbs]

giants1156, on Feb 28 2008, 04:18 PM, said:

robbbs
wheres the snow/rain line setting up ? im in north central jersey. usually its rte.78 witch im south of

Best way to answer that is to show you the 12z soundings for Morristown and Newark. The bulk of the precip falls between 7:00 pm Friday night and 7:00 am Saturday morning. Morristown surface temps are at 26 at 7:00 pm, and 34 at 1:00 am and 7:00 am. Newark surface temps are at 28 at 7:00 pm, and 36 at 1:00 am and 7:00 am. It's below freezing at all layers above the surface. This may turn into a highly variable snowfall with some places getting a slushy inch and others getting 4" or 5". This presumes the 12z GFS will verify.

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

robbbs, on Feb 28 2008, 12:27 PM, said:

Best way to answer that is to show you the 12z soundings for Morristown and Newark. The bulk of the precip falls between 7:00 pm Friday night and 7:00 am Saturday morning. Morristown surface temps are at 26 at 7:00 pm, and 34 at 1:00 am and 7:00 am. Newark surface temps are at 28 at 7:00 pm, and 36 at 1:00 am and 7:00 am. It's below freezing at all layers above the surface. This may turn into a highly variable snowfall with some places getting a slushy inch and others getting 4" or 5". This presumes the 12z GFS will verify.

Hey Robbs any thought on a storm next week, I'm seeing a lot of thoughts abotu something happening mid week or even next weekend when the cold air is in place...

[robbbs]

BRINGONTHEBIGONE, on Feb 28 2008, 05:11 PM, said:

Hey Robbs any thought on a storm next week, I'm seeing a lot of thoughts abotu something happening mid week or even next weekend when the cold air is in place...

The synoptics are hinting it; the models haven't caught on yet (at least not the gfs; the Euro is picking up on it). Too early for anyone to know but it looks interesting.

EDIT -- Actually, the 12z gfs shows the storm but as a coastal hugger for now. That's not bad as the track is bound to shift.

[snowfreak188]

im not even looking foward to next weeks event! its closed off and is just throwing a SE wind rite on all of us.

[metfan4life]

snowfreak188, on Feb 28 2008, 12:51 PM, said:

im not even looking foward to next weeks event! its closed off and is just throwing a SE wind rite on all of us.

It early yet my dude.

:frantics:

[snowfreak188]

metfan4life, on Feb 28 2008, 12:53 PM, said:

It early yet my dude.

:frantics:

i hope we are all talking about the same storm. if its the one around 132 wich im talking about tehre is no shot in hell of it being snow really. but the 192hour one looks alright but follow this years trends its gonna hop NW and even on the GFS temps arent that great for us typical march i guess?

[jasonbarnett]

you're also forgetting about the sun angle.. its going to get worse and worse of course, by mid march or so.. intense snowfall rates or nighttime snow will be most of the accumulation around the tri-state.. very hard to get snow to stick with the sun angle.. in february let alone into march with just any plain old light snow

[jjvesnow]

jasonbarnett, on Feb 28 2008, 06:13 PM, said:

you're also forgetting about the sun angle.. its going to get worse and worse of course, by mid march or so.. intense snowfall rates or nighttime snow will be most of the accumulation around the tri-state.. very hard to get snow to stick with the sun angle.. in february let alone into march with just any plain old light snow

Sun angle will not make really any difference with this set up. Please think before you speak. Thanks!

[lab94]

jjvesnow, on Feb 28 2008, 01:52 PM, said:

Sun angle will not make really any difference with this set up. Please think before you speak. Thanks!

The sun angle will have a lot to do with the storm next week --------------------------------- It will make a nice rainbow when the rain stops

[snowfreak188]

jjvesnow, on Feb 28 2008, 01:52 PM, said:

Sun angle will not make really any difference with this set up. Please think before you speak. Thanks!

the suns gonna warm the ground up more then what it would in January and early February so we kinda still have to worry about it in the evening!

[jasonbarnett]

think before i speak? here is a great idea. shut up. IF you're one going to correct someone, let alone be an @$$ about it, maybe you should try being right or giving an explination. SUN ANGLE IS A HUGE DEAL AND WILL SSERIOUSLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS IF YOU'RE BOREDERLINE 32 with the sun out Don't know what the hell you think you're talking about, but sun angle is definitly an issue.

[jasonbarnett]

Sun angle is actually a big factor in daytime storms Why do you think while it was light-mod snowing all day here wiht last storm, 32 degrees, it didnt accumulate? You know what happened? The sun angle killed it! Compacted anything that did stick earlier and nothing that fell during the afternoon hours stuck to anything

[jjvesnow]

jasonbarnett, on Feb 28 2008, 07:04 PM, said:

think before i speak? here is a great idea. shut up. IF you're one going to correct someone, let alone be an @$$ about it, maybe you should try being right or giving an explination. SUN ANGLE IS A HUGE DEAL AND WILL SSERIOUSLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS IF YOU'RE BOREDERLINE 32 with the sun out Don't know what the hell you think you're talking about, but sun angle is definitly an issue.

Not really. Its still early March and if this storm does some how work out there is a lot of precip. This would be a huge storm. Sun angle would'nt be much of an issue at all! bottom line! This type of set up we are talking about woudnt be a light event.

[snowfreak188]

jasonbarnett, on Feb 28 2008, 02:04 PM, said:

think before i speak? here is a great idea. shut up. IF you're one going to correct someone, let alone be an @$$ about it, maybe you should try being right or giving an explination. SUN ANGLE IS A HUGE DEAL AND WILL SSERIOUSLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS IF YOU'RE BOREDERLINE 32 with the sun out Don't know what the hell you think you're talking about, but sun angle is definitly an issue.

lighten up! damn all he said was think before you say something and you shoot back at him like that! i agree though about the sun angle having a MAJOR affect during daytime snowfalls.

[jasonbarnett]

its a weather discussion board and whether people agree or not, they should not be told to THINK before they speak. A simple i disagree its not a big factor would do, not something like that. The intent was to belittle my thoughts, when in fact the sun angle does start to make its presence felt in storms from late FEB on.. I'm all about arguing, beacuse that is what a discussion board is! But do it without acting in such a fashion. I apologize for jumping out at you, but honestly.. i wont be basically caleld stupid when i'm right

[jasonbarnett]

what set up? i'm talking about this weekend.. even next week, ok.. even if you get enough qpf out of that storm, there is not going to be a huge cold source keeping things nice and cold. Again, it will be very dependent on track... if the majority of snow during hte day, even around 30-32 degrees, you're giong to have a hard time sticking unless the snows falling intensely..

[jasonbarnett]

I am in buffalo and sun angle DESTROYED my day time accumulation last storm as I was at or under freezing. Trust me, if its going to effect me here, with a storm going well south of me with ample cold air.. its going to effect you in the tristate as well with what will probably be a marginal event

[lab94]

snowfreak188, on Feb 28 2008, 01:00 PM, said:

i hope we are all talking about the same storm. if its the one around 132 wich im talking about tehre is no shot in hell of it being snow really. but the 192hour one looks alright but follow this years trends its gonna hop NW and even on the GFS temps arent that great for us typical march i guess?

jasonbarnett, on Feb 28 2008, 02:24 PM, said:

what set up? i'm talking about this weekend.. even next week, ok.. even if you get enough qpf out of that storm, there is not going to be a huge cold source keeping things going.. Again, it will be very dependent on track... if the majority of snow during hte day, even around 30-32 degrees, you're giong to have a hard time sticking unless the snows falling intensely..

Jay, I think he was responding to snfr post on the big storm that some models have 2" of Pricip not the light event fri. So yes, everyone should think before they post. Making sure it is interpeted the right way