9 replies to this topic

[Mrsnow88]

Just watched the 11 O'clock News. And Lonnie said something about this weekend, but said he thinks the RAIN will go to our South. Didn't say anything about snow. BTW how could it possibly snow if temps are going to be in the Upper 40's this weekend?

[metfan4life]

This storm might happen next week,not this weekend.

[hens13]

Mrsnow88, on Mar 19 2008, 11:24 PM, said:

Just watched the 11 O'clock News. And Lonnie said something about this weekend, but said he thinks the RAIN will go to our South. Didn't say anything about snow. BTW how could it possibly snow if temps are going to be in the Upper 40's this weekend?

Lonnie showed a high temprature of 51 degrees on Tuesday.

[icehater]

hens13, on Mar 19 2008, 11:37 PM, said:

Lonnie showed a high temprature of 51 degrees on Tuesday.

It's late March and if doesn't snow it probably will be 50 degrees. In late March it can be 45-50 here and still snow in DC. Likewise it can be 45-50 in southern Maine and snow here. It's not that the air is not cold it's that the sun warms it easily in areas that don't get precip. Simply put - cold does not follow the stratified layers you are used to in January or February because the days are long and the sun is now as strong as it is on September 21st. It's also not unusual to have it be 50+ in daytime with temps that dip to 37 at night, have a cold rain or RS mix start and then have that precip take you down to 31-32. You can't think of winter weather at this time of year the way you think of it in the heart of winter. It doesn't work that way at this lattitude. Northern New England and north still folow the normal protocols of winter at this time of year and for a while longer. Down here we are off that train.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Mar 19 2008, 11:46 PM, said:

It's late March and if doesn't snow it probably will be 50 degrees. In late March it can be 45-50 here and still snow in DC. Likewise it can be 45-50 in southern Maine and snow here. It's not that the air is not cold it's that the sun warms it easily in areas that don't get precip. Simply put - cold does not follow the stratified layers you are used to in January or February because the days are long and the sun is now as strong as it is on September 21st. It's also not unusual to have it be 50+ in daytime with temps that dip to 37 at night, have a cold rain or RS mix start and then have that precip take you down to 31-32. You can't think of winter weather at this time of year the way you think of it in the heart of winter. It doesn't work that way at this lattitude. Northern New England and north still folow the normal protocols of winter at this time of year and for a while longer. Down here we are off that train.

Excellent, excellent post Ice. Couldn't have said it any better.

The air is actually just as cold as was it was a month or two ago. We have 850mb temps progged well below freezing with even some -10c showing up in advance of the storm next week -- that's 10-20 degree dew point air. Temperatures can be in the 40s w/o precip, but when the atmosphere becomes saturated, it cools to it's wet bulb temp, which would be at or below freezing under early next week's conditions.

Just take the other night for example -- highs were in the low 50s here in central NJ, yet I chilled to 37 degrees with mod to hvy sleet around 10pm b/c mid/upper level cold was sufficient and the air was very dry.

As Ice said you've got a completely different protocol once you hit March 1st south of northern new england.

[hens13]

Local met Joe Rao just posted this on the N12 website, and I quote,

"Early next week, our attention will turn to the Gulf of Mexico, where a storm is expected to emerge and take a track across the Southeast and Middle Atlantic States. Depending on the storm's exact trajectory, we "might" be in line for a significant late-season wintry storm late Monday or Monday night. On the other hand, the track might be just a little too far to the south to affect our area. Since it's still about five days away, we'll just have to monitor the situation carefully as things are likely to change between now and then". -- Joe Rao


He thinks the threat is more late Monday than Tuesday.

[icehater]

hens13, on Mar 20 2008, 12:00 AM, said:

Local met Joe Rao just posted this on the N12 website, and I quote,

"Early next week, our attention will turn to the Gulf of Mexico, where a storm is expected to emerge and take a track across the Southeast and Middle Atlantic States. Depending on the storm's exact trajectory, we "might" be in line for a significant late-season wintry storm late Monday or Monday night. On the other hand, the track might be just a little too far to the south to affect our area. Since it's still about five days away, we'll just have to monitor the situation carefully as things are likely to change between now and then". -- Joe Rao


He thinks the threat is more late Monday than Tuesday.

So does everyone else. I don't know where you picked up a different time period. The weekend potential that has been discussed is nothing more than a weak clipper.

[hens13]

icehater, on Mar 20 2008, 12:06 AM, said:

So does everyone else. I don't know where you picked up a different time period. The weekend potential that has been discussed is nothing more than a weak clipper.

He's not talking about the little weekend clipper. It looks to me like the bigger threat comes Tuesday rather than Monday. Thats why I brought up his Monday Idea. The cold does look plentiful on this run.

[icehater]

hens13, on Mar 20 2008, 12:08 AM, said:

He's not talking about the little weekend clipper. It looks to me like the bigger threat comes Tuesday rather than Monday. Thats why I brought up his Monday Idea. The cold does look plentiful on this run.

The storm we have been talking about all along is the Monday/Tuesday possibilty. What he brought up is old news here.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Mar 19 2008, 11:46 PM, said:

It's late March and if doesn't snow it probably will be 50 degrees. In late March it can be 45-50 here and still snow in DC. Likewise it can be 45-50 in southern Maine and snow here. It's not that the air is not cold it's that the sun warms it easily in areas that don't get precip. Simply put - cold does not follow the stratified layers you are used to in January or February because the days are long and the sun is now as strong as it is on September 21st. It's also not unusual to have it be 50+ in daytime with temps that dip to 37 at night, have a cold rain or RS mix start and then have that precip take you down to 31-32. You can't think of winter weather at this time of year the way you think of it in the heart of winter. It doesn't work that way at this lattitude. Northern New England and north still folow the normal protocols of winter at this time of year and for a while longer. Down here we are off that train.

Stormchaser, on Mar 19 2008, 11:57 PM, said:

Excellent, excellent post Ice. Couldn't have said it any better.

The air is actually just as cold as was it was a month or two ago. We have 850mb temps progged well below freezing with even some -10c showing up in advance of the storm next week -- that's 10-20 degree dew point air. Temperatures can be in the 40s w/o precip, but when the atmosphere becomes saturated, it cools to it's wet bulb temp, which would be at or below freezing under early next week's conditions.

Just take the other night for example -- highs were in the low 50s here in central NJ, yet I chilled to 37 degrees with mod to hvy sleet around 10pm b/c mid/upper level cold was sufficient and the air was very dry.

As Ice said you've got a completely different protocol once you hit March 1st south of northern new england.

To further illustrate the point Ice and I made yesterday -- Chicago.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?s...30&map.y=94

Their high temperature was 48F this afternoon; currently 45F, and they're expecting up to 8" of snow tonight through tomorrow as temps remain sub freezing.

850's are very cold -- supportive of all snow, thus when you have strong vertical velocities via thermally induced baroclinicity, you'll get big snows.