24 replies to this topic

[robbbs]

Has anyone seen it? A rather rambling post but he is strongly suggesting that the surface cold is being underestimated by the models and the temps will bust on the low side. He believes a serious ice storm is possible even in the big I-95 cities and warns of major power outgages along the I-95 corridor. Ironic that I'm at a temp of 13.1 and going down, with heavy snow falling, and yet I fully expect a change to ice later tonight.

[rcambeis]

how likely do you think that is???

[LongIslandWthr]

Sad thing is I havent seen anything yet...

[icehater]

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how likely do you think that is???

Robbbs 21 and I'm already in the ice. I'd kill for this surface temp in a snowstorm and I'm getting rain and sleet!

[robbbs]

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how likely do you think that is???

It's been a concern by many since the start. The hope was that the coastal would develop earlier and further east to cut off the upper air warming. However, it's currently 21 even in Philadelphia and low level winds should continue mostly from the north overnight and tomorrow so the cold looks to be locked in. Not a good scenario for many folks.

[robbbs]

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how likely do you think that is???

Robbbs 21 and I'm already in the ice. I'd kill for this surface temp in a snowstorm and I'm getting rain and sleet!

Can't buy snow this winter even when temps are very cold.

[Stormchaser]

Amazing -- now 20.5 degrees and freezing rain here in Monmouth county. NWS fcst low was 28 degrees tonight! Obviously a bust as the low-level cold air drainage is stronger than progged on MOS guidance. JB may be right -- icing event right into the big cities. Ice looks to be the bigger concern for anyone with 850mb temps >0c, i.e, the rest of NJ as well as SE PA. Sig-major snows confined to the mountains well NW.

[weathergeek87]

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how likely do you think that is???

It's been a concern by many since the start. The hope was that the coastal would develop earlier and further east to cut off the upper air warming. However, it's currently 21 even in Philadelphia and low level winds should continue mostly from the north overnight and tomorrow so the cold looks to be locked in. Not a good scenario for many folks.

Robbbs--not a good senario as in major ice complications or not a good senario as in low level cold will prevent the storm from bombing early?

[listarz]

Geez, this is insane!  :o

[listarz]

I grew up in the Poconos, we didn't have these problems! It was snow 90% of the time!

[weathergeek87]

You guys hit the nail on the head. Cold air damming was underestimated..looks like an icy commute for people tomorrow, even to the coast---ice is nothing to mess with--I hope schools just close and don't try to delay if its bad in the AM.........
Down to 24.2 and dew point is 10 degrees!!!!!!!

[NYBrit]

Does that mean there will be no change over to rain?

[njblizzard]

20 and snow/sleet

[robbbs]

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how likely do you think that is???

It's been a concern by many since the start. The hope was that the coastal would develop earlier and further east to cut off the upper air warming. However, it's currently 21 even in Philadelphia and low level winds should continue mostly from the north overnight and tomorrow so the cold looks to be locked in. Not a good scenario for many folks.

Robbbs--not a good senario as in major ice complications or not a good senario as in low level cold will prevent the storm from bombing early?

Weathergeek, not a good scenario as in major league ice damage. My saving grace is that it's so cold here, that I'll probably wind up with a ton of sleet. The bigger concern is for areas that will have overnight temps in the 20's and freezing rain. Eventually this will turn to snow tomorrow as we get the backlash but until then looks like many hours of ice for many people. Also don't even want to think about the roads and driving conditions later.

[lab94]

13.8  dpt 9  snowing

[garth1_07719]

I live in Wall Township, Monmouth County. I just came back from Newark Airport. The whole ride back the roads were just ice. I'm back in Wall now and the temp is 22 and still freezing rain and sleet....

[Virgaman]

15.6 degrees and just cloudy

[cyclone31174]

23 here in Denville, Morris County NJ and snowing

[icehater]

Temp keeps dropping - 20.6 now with sleet again.

If anyone wants to see Cold Air damming (CAD) here it is. Look at how that warm front is just stoopped dead in its tracks.

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/curren...m=wxcenter_maps

If the arctic high was exiting that warm front would rush right through. When it wedges like that - serious ice storm ahead.

[forte408]

live in shark river hills..right near you in wall...roads are completly white with ice..