26 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MT...

...NORTHEAST STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION...
UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
SUNDAY. WITH 60S F DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...POCKETS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN UPSWING LIKELY IN TSTM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MODERATE/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES
WITH AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE HAIL.

...MT...
00Z NAM/GFS AND 21Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY...WITH TSTMS ESPECIALLY
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MT. VEERING WIND PROFILES
/MAXIMIZED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT/...ALONG WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY...ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

..GUYER.. 06/20/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

[LongIslandWthr]

...NEW ENGLAND SWD TO MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC STATES...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY
SWD INTO ERN PA ATTENDANT TO ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO QUEBEC. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND SHOULD SUPPORT A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS ERN NY/PA INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY ACROSS
THE ERN STATES...SEVERAL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND TRACKING ACROSS THE NERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSTMS. DEEP SWLY WIND FIELDS
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY.

SIMILAR DESTABILIZATION /MODERATE INSTABILITY/ IS EXPECTED FARTHER S
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AIDED BY
ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

[LongIslandWthr]

[hens13]

Does anyone know by chance if there are going to be T-Storms tommorow? Because I'm taking a flight down to Pittsburgh around 2pm.

[icehater]

Very dark sky NW of me now but radar movement shows that storm moving toward New Brunswick. SE of Trenton seems to be a hot bed for developnt right now and that may move into Monmouth county. If it doesn't I'm going into the pool. Very warm and humid here and temp forecasts of mid 70's have been blown away in this area. Temp here now at 82.8.

[icehater]

Looks like all development is in eastern areas. Nothing developing so far in Pa and thus far heavier activity is near and north of NYC. Up there it seems a matter of time for NYC but down here I'm getting the feeling we might be back to normal in Monmouth. The storm SE of Trenton died and a new cell formed further south. Hoping for at least a shower here at some point as I just planted five flats of Begonias on Friday. Lot of towering thunderheds in the sky here amid plenty of deep blue sky. Very Florida like in look and feel. Seems like a storm can develop right overhead at almost any time similar to last Sunday so you can't just go by radars today. In the TWC radar look at the radar movement. Storms in central and south Jersey look like pop-ups that move almost due east and fall apart. Storms toward NYC are moving NNE, hold together well and even strengthen, and seem to be part of an organized trough.


http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interac...;animation=true

[icehater]

Forgot to mention temp has risen to 84.5. Temps have busted badly in Monmouth.

[weatherbowl]

Mostly cloudy here and a temperature of 74.3. Did have an earlier high of 77.1.

[icehater]

Severe T-storm warning in my area from this cell which is still far south of me, in fact south of Freehold on radar. I hear some distant booming thunder from it and also a lot of loud plane noise as jets are redirecting themselves around it. Sky looks pretty ominous to my south. My daughter was afraid to stay in the pool even though we just have some broken clouds overhead. The edge of that thunderhead was visible earlier and it looked very tall. It looks to be just meandering around, almost stationary, and it does look like energy transfer to another developing cell is possible with this storm.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interac...;animation=true

[NittanyLion]

Eveything developed around me and we got nothing but some drizzle. Some storms firing up in PA now though.

[wxtracker93]

Today's threat seems to have been extremely isolated in nature...however some of the storms that did pop up were quite nasty. Let's see what tomorrow holds in store.

[rgwp96]

wxtracker93, on Jun 22 2008, 07:22 PM, said:

Today's threat seems to have been extremely isolated in nature...however some of the storms that did pop up were quite nasty. Let's see what tomorrow holds in store.

considering probably 90% of the state saw very little , this was a terrible forecast today. I think I had a trace

[devilsfan0405]

We got whacked here in Cedar Grove. There was a torrential downpour that lasted a good 30-45 minutes with frequent lightning and several loud cracks of thunder. The main road in Cedar Grove was partially flooded, the sewers couldn't keep up with the force and volume of the rain. A very impressive storm in these parts.

[icehater]

rgwp96, on Jun 22 2008, 07:48 PM, said:

considering probably 90% of the state saw very little , this was a terrible forecast today. I think I had a trace

The expectation was left over showers with some thunder early from the dying line in Pa late last night and then widespread slow moving afternoon forming storms with drenching rains. But the widespread 60% likelihood should have been 20-30% isolated. That mistake also caused temp and sunshine forecasts to be in left field which further allowed the storms that did form to be quite severe. A pilot at Newark reported golf ball sized hail which is about as big as hail gets in this area. The one that struck southern Monmouth and northern Ocean had dangerous CTG lightning, very heavy rains, hail and 60mph winds. It did extend itself briefly up the coast east of me but other than some distant booming thunder (which had to be CTG lightning) I got nothing here and I'd honestly say the day was mostly sunny, which was as far removed from yesterday and today's early forecasts as you can get.

[metfan4life]

Heard a couple of rumbles of Thunder today and that was it.

[icehater]

Glad I watered my flowers today. Now I'm regretting wasting pool water away earlier in the week. My sixth sense told me not to trust last Mondays forecasted heavy storms.

[rgwp96]

icehater, on Jun 22 2008, 09:06 PM, said:

Glad I watered my flowers today. Now I'm regretting wasting pool water away earlier in the week. My sixth sense told me not to trust last Mondays forecasted heavy storms.

same here, temps reached low 80s with plenty of sun.

[weatherbowl]

No rain here today, pretty nice day. The forecast indicated much more in the way of rain.

[GameOfLove]

There were big storms this afternoon from Bergen County,NJ into Rockland and Westchester counties.

[robbbs]

Downpours must have been very local and scattered late today. As I drove home tonight from Ridgewood NJ the roads were bone dry until reaching the Ringwood area, and then lots of standing water on the roads here in West Milford where my rain guage recorded 0.63" this evening.