113 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...ERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS...
MOST CONCENTRATED SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD FROM W-E
ACROSS OH...PA AND NY DURING DAY...PERHAPS INCLUDING ADJACENT
PORTIONS VA/WV/MD AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND...FROM ONE OR MORE WELL-ORGANIZED LINES OF TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA
MAY REQUIRE GREATER PROBABILITIES ONCE MESOSCALE FOCI BECOME MORE
WELL-DEFINED TO FOCUS ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.

PRE-STORM AIR MASS FC TO BESTCOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE OVER
REGION THROUGHOUT LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SFC
DIABATIC HEATING WEAKENING CINH. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN 60S F
WITHIN AND W OF APPALACHIANS...INCREASING TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST
WITH NWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND
STRONGER DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC KINEMATIC FIELDS...HENCE GREATER THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE OVER MID-ATLANTIC AND N-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS REGION. HOWEVER...OVER CAROLINAS SWWD INTO PORTIONS
GA/AL...SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE PRESENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND BANDS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

[weatherbowl]

Had very little rain here yesterday but on my way back from Kingston I could see there had been some heavy rain in southern Westchester and the Bronx area. I had a high of 86 yesterday and it is already well into the 70s this morning.

[LongIslandWthr]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
605 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NYZ075>077-080-081-301030-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
605 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT...DEADLY...LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES OF
LONG ISLAND...AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

[isobar65]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...EASTERN US...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
OH INTO NY/PA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
THIS MORNING...AND MAY SUPPRESS ACTIVE CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...BACK EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY/PA BY LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE A NARROW ZONE OF
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
FIRST INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO WV/KY/TN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S. MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN PA/SOUTHERN NY AS WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW OVER VA
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT FROM MD NORTHWARD...WHERE HAIL IS MORE
LIKELY IN STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE AND LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
STATES FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TO SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS...AS DETAILS OF CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

[LongIslandWthr]

isobar65, on Jun 29 2008, 08:57 AM, said:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...EASTERN US...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
OH INTO NY/PA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
THIS MORNING...AND MAY SUPPRESS ACTIVE CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...BACK EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY/PA BY LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE A NARROW ZONE OF
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
FIRST INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO WV/KY/TN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S. MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN PA/SOUTHERN NY AS WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW OVER VA
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT FROM MD NORTHWARD...WHERE HAIL IS MORE
LIKELY IN STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE AND LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
STATES FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TO SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS...AS DETAILS OF CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

[LongIslandWthr]

[LongIslandWthr]

Made it to 81.3 already this morning, a few clouds blocking the sun right now temp is down to 79.3

[LongIslandWthr]

Up to 84.6 with blue skies, Wet bulb at 67

[isobar65]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...EASTERN US...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
OH INTO NY/PA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
THIS MORNING...AND MAY SUPPRESS ACTIVE CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...BACK EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY/PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A NARROW ZONE
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE FIRST INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO WV/KY/TN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

REF MCD 1628

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. MESOSCALE MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA/SOUTHERN NY AS
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW OVER VA
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT FROM MD NORTHWARD...WHERE HAIL IS MORE
LIKELY IN STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE AND LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
STATES FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TO SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL TODAY. HOWEVER WILL
CONSIDER A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN
20Z OUTLOOK ...AS DETAILS OF CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

[LongIslandWthr]

WUUS51 KPHI 291747
SVRPHI
NJC023-025-291830-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0112.080629T1747Z-080629T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
EAST CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 146 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MATAWAN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERTH AMBOY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KEANSBURG BY 155 PM...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANDY HOOK BY 210 PM...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4028 7420 4040 7437 4050 7426 4047 7426
4044 7420 4046 7418 4045 7415 4046 7413
4044 7409 4041 7401 4042 7400 4047 7402
4048 7400 4044 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 225DEG 24KT 4040 7420

$$

SZATKOWSKI



552

[LongIslandWthr]

WUUS51 KOKX 291800
SVROKX
NJC003-013-017-039-NYC047-061-081-085-291900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0056.080629T1800Z-080629T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

* AT 156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HUGUENOT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 28 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TODT HILL BY 210 PM...
TOMPKINSVILLE...VERRAZANO-NARROWS BRIDGE AND BAY RIDGE BY 215 PM...
BAYONNE BY 220 PM...
JERSEY CITY BY 225 PM...
BATTERY PARK AND KEARNY BY 230 PM...
HOBOKEN AND UNION CITY BY 235 PM...

LAT...LON 4051 7425 4058 7420 4059 7425 4083 7417
4081 7413 4085 7412 4082 7392 4080 7392
4079 7386 4081 7385 4080 7380 4058 7393
4058 7401 4062 7404 4070 7401 4069 7404
4067 7407 4059 7405 4054 7413 4050 7424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 199DEG 24KT 4053 7413

$$

NV

[LongIslandWthr]

Watch out NYC!!!!

[wxtracker93]

[snowfreak188]

that says there moving NE if that rite maybe ill get lucky.

[wxtracker93]

[wxtracker93]

[LongIslandWthr]

Storm flaring up over LI

[LongIslandWthr]

[LongIslandWthr]

Get ready for fun Storm and Ice!

[LongIslandWthr]

Watch out CNJ