129 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

I figured it was time for a new thread to post the Obs for Today in.

Lets start with the Radar:


SPC has the NYC Metro Area under a 5% Risk for Tornadic Activity






THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF URBAN FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY WHERE
TRAINING OF CELLS OCCURS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

[snowfreak188]

pretty cloudy to my west hopefully it gets here before i head down to fish.spot im gonna be in is perfect to see storms from all directions!

[WeatherWarrior]

wow. radar looks lit!

[WeatherWarrior]

Also, sun has been out here in NE NJ for a while not.

[wntrstrmwrng]

Down here in Ocean View, NJ (right outside Sea Isle City) this weekend... Woke up to a Sever Thunderstorm. By far the best storm of the year I've witnessed by far...

[weatherbowl]

Its been mostly cloudy here all morning. If it stays, that could put a damper on any severe weather.

[lab94]

call me crazy , but the last 2 frames of the radar looks like a bow echo developed. Maybe its just that I need another cup of coffee

[robbbs]

lab94, on Aug 2 2008, 01:28 PM, said:

call me crazy , but the last 2 frames of the radar looks like a bow echo developed. Maybe its just that I need another cup of coffee

Certainly looks that way (and I'm already on my 3rd cup of coffee).

[LongIslandWthr]

weatherbowl, on Aug 2 2008, 09:16 AM, said:

Its been mostly cloudy here all morning. If it stays, that could put a damper on any severe weather.

It was sunny here from 6-9am that is enough Isolation for me

[robbbs]

For what it's worth, Weather Underground radar already shows some 1.5" to 2" rainfall totals in PA just west of Warren and Sussex Counties of NJ.

[LongIslandWthr]

[LongIslandWthr]

Updated SPC maps, looks like we are the Bullseye

[snowshoe]

We are getting hammered with storms now. Very heavy rain and lots of thunder/lighting.

[satellite_eyes]

Very heavy rain and gusty winds. Only 1 clap of thunder though. Haven't seen lightning. Pretty bad but looks even worse to the north.

[LongIslandWthr]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...SRN CT...NRN/CNTRL
NJ...SE PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021411Z - 021545Z

TSTM LINE SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS ERN PA THIS MORNING
AS UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS IMPACTING THE
NEWARK-NEW YORK METRO AREA BY 1530-16Z.

THROUGH THE MORNING...A LOW-LVL INVERSION AROUND 3KM HAS DECREASED
THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SFC. BUT...HEATING
WILL WEAKEN THIS CAP AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY IS
LIKELY. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBILITY OF DMGG WINDS.

..RACY.. 08/02/2008


ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

40197377 39887522 40077572 40407616 40727494 41237453
41527260 40827267

[robbbs]

Rain starting here with frequent thunder. Weather Underground radar shows some 3" rainfall totals now in eastern PA just west of Sussex County NJ.

[LongIslandWthr]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT CONNECTICUT TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF DOVER DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE TRACKING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF
PA/DE/MD/NJ...SOUTHEAST NY AND LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. ACTIVITY WILL
BE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND FORCING. BOWING SEGMENTS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE
AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.


...CARBIN

[Stormchaser]

Bows/lines seem to be the predominate form of T-storm as expected. Certainly no derecho, that's for sure.

77 and overcast here with a dew point of 72. Precipitable water values very high today so hvy rain a definite threat.

[LongIslandWthr]

[smokey112956]

WOW, I am getting hammered. Thunder, lightning, very windy. I have to go to a pool party at noon for my friends 5 year olds Birthday down in Wayne, from what I hear it is not doing anything down there yet, I wonder if it will be as bad as up here. 20 kids and 15 adults should be interesting.