20 replies to this topic

[satellite_eyes]

Wow yes i do find this hard to believe!
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/b....xml&coll=1

[wxtracker93]

Summer shaping up as a Top 10 hot one
Saturday, August 23, 2008
BY TOM FEENEY
Star-Ledger Staff

You might find this hard to believe if you were one of those who reached for a sweatshirt or blanket to ward off the unseasonable chill in the air this week, but the summer of 2008 is destined to go down as one of the 10 hottest on record in New Jersey.

The average daily statewide temperature in June and July was higher than it has ever been in the 114 years weather records have been kept in New Jersey, said David Robinson, the state climatologist. So even a cooler-than-usual August across northern New Jersey will probably not be enough to deny this summer a place among the warmest in recent history.

Robinson estimates the daily statewide average temperature for August would have to be about 1.4 degrees below the normal daily average of 72.8 degrees to knock the summer of 2008 out of the top 10.

August has been cool and dry, he said. The thermometer dipped to 41 degrees in Sussex County on Wednesday and was down in the 50s through much of the rest of North Jersey. The average daily temperature in Newark through yesterday was about 1.7 degrees below normal for the month. Two of every three days this month in Newark have seen temperatures below the long-term average.

South Jersey has not enjoyed the same taste of autumn in August. The daily average temperature in Atlantic City is only about one-tenth of a degree below the long-term average, Robinson said.

He estimates the statewide average for August has been only about 1 degree below normal.

"We are definitely running cooler than usual," he said. "But June and July were hot. Neither one was a record-breaker by itself, but when you combine them they were the warmest June and July since 1895, when they started keeping records. It's too early to say for sure, but right now I would say it looks like it's not going to be cool enough for the rest of the month to keep this summer out of the top 10."

The National Weather Service forecast for the next week calls for conditions much like the past few days -- lows in the 50s and low 60s, highs in the low 80s.

As the air temperatures in New Jersey were breaking records in June and July, the water temperatures at the Jersey Shore were far below normal. They were still in the low 60s in late July.

Robinson said the blame for the cold water for the first two-thirds of the summer rests with the same weather pattern that kept the air warm -- a consistent flow of air from the south and southwest.

When the weather pattern shifted in August and the air temperatures cooled, the ocean water began to warm up. It has been in the low 70s for much of the month, Robinson said.

[isobar65]

If I'm not mistaken White Plains has not seen a 90 degree day so far this month.

[GameOfLove]

isobar65, on Aug 23 2008, 01:27 PM, said:

If I'm not mistaken White Plains has not seen a 90 degree day so far this month.

Same here in Newburgh. I don't think NYC has seen a 90 degree day this month as well.

[devilsfan0405]

GameOfLove, on Aug 23 2008, 01:39 PM, said:

Same here in Newburgh. I don't think NYC has seen a 90 degree day this month as well.

Just shows you how hot it was in June and July.

[rgwp96]

only thing that felt warmer to me was night time lows. Otherwise day time temps except for that one stretch didnt seem to hot(well above avg)

[weatherbowl]

I think this is a southern New Jersey thing. NYC records go back to the late 1800s and I just went back to the 1940s and found almost 20 warmer summers in NYC. My high this month is only 86 and I only hit 90 or above 6 times between June and July. It was very humid in June and July but a lot of the real heat never made more north than southern and central New Jersey. So if New Jersey makes the top ten it wasn't because of what happened in the northern half of the state.

[Stormchaser]

You've got to be kidding me. If you combine June/July -- yes the summer is in the top 10 in terms of warmth -- but since when is summer only 2 months long? August is -3.0 so far in Boston, -2.0 in NYC, and 1-3 degrees below normal in much of the Northeast.

Through today, NYC is +0.9 for the June-July-August 23rd period. That's far from record warmth - it's slightly above normal. If the positive departures of June-July persisted through August - then yes we'd have something to talk about. But August has turned this summer into a mediocre one, which I expected in the summer forecast (0 to +2 temps departures total).

[Stormchaser]

weatherbowl, on Aug 23 2008, 10:15 PM, said:

I think this is a southern New Jersey thing. NYC records go back to the late 1800s and I just went back to the 1940s and found almost 20 warmer summers in NYC. My high this month is only 86 and I only hit 90 or above 6 times between June and July. It was very humid in June and July but a lot of the real heat never made more north than southern and central New Jersey. So if New Jersey makes the top ten it wasn't because of what happened in the northern half of the state.

Agree weatherbowl. I don't even think this is a southern NJ thing either. Don't know where the author of that article gets his data, but it certainly isn't from a reputable source.

[lab94]

Here June was +4.1 , July +3.1 and Aug. to today was - 1.4 We had 4 days in each June and July when it hit 90 and 0 in Aug. All and all I thought it was a cooler summer. Like RG said in the beginng the night time lows were warmer keeping the Avg up.
In 07 we had 10 90+ days. 1 in May, 3 in June, 2 in July, and 4 in Aug

[snowfreak188]

long range is showing alot of cooler air bottling up in canada maybe a cool end of the summer?i dont know if id like a COLD october/november i hate those nights when itsl ike 45-50 with a NW wind on the water its just nasty.

[lab94]

snowfreak188, on Aug 23 2008, 11:12 PM, said:

long range is showing alot of cooler air bottling up in canada maybe a cool end of the summer?i dont know if id like a COLD october/november i hate those nights when itsl ike 45-50 with a NW wind on the water its just nasty.

The cool nights with the sunny warm days is what gives us the great colors in fall

[Stormchaser]

Here are NYC's top 10 places for warmest summers:

77.3 1966
77.1 2005
76.9 1993/1983/1949
76.7 1999
76.6 1988/1980
76.5 1995/1944
76.3 1991
76.2 1908
76.1 1963
76.0 2002/1971/1876

Notice there are 16 years in the top 10.

NYC's mean temp through yesterday is 75.4. This would likely put us in the top 25-30 years in terms of warmth, which is about the 65-70th percentile range. Solidly warmer than normal summer but by no means impressive. We've seen numerous summers much warmer than this one.

[snowfreak188]

this is just another thing for the global warming geeks.

[Stormchaser]

lab94, on Aug 23 2008, 11:32 PM, said:

The cool nights with the sunny warm days is what gives us the great colors in fall

I'm already seeing shades of red on several of the swamp maples around my area - but it happens at this time every year. Probably the usual late summer rainfall stress.

[Stormchaser]

Just went through Trenton NJ's data -- an interesting stat:

We've had 56 summers with more 90 degree days than this year's 15. Records go back to 1893. The long term average is 17. So no doubt we're barely at normal this year for 90F days.

This summer has been mostly above normal, albeit only 5-8 degrees, no real prolonged heat waves other than the 2nd week of June and middle week of July.

[devilsfan0405]

Stormchaser, on Aug 24 2008, 09:19 PM, said:

Just went through Trenton NJ's data -- an interesting stat:

We've had 56 summers with more 90 degree days than this year's 15. Records go back to 1893. The long term average is 17. So no doubt we're barely at normal this year for 90F days.

This summer has been mostly above normal, albeit only 5-8 degrees, no real prolonged heat waves other than the 2nd week of June and middle week of July.

June probably featured the worst of the heat. I remember that 3 or 4 day stretch where it was close to 100. I was in Hartford on business and it even got to 97 or 98 up there.

[snowfreak188]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0/fp0_384.shtml

00z that looks nice and cool!maybe even a big storm coming out of that.still 384hours out though.

[vascudave]

maybe someone representing this board could write an op-ed and /or contact the writer of the article to see how he got this data??

[jfar57]

vascudave, on Aug 25 2008, 07:33 AM, said:

maybe someone representing this board could write an op-ed and /or contact the writer of the article to see how he got this data??

Yeah, this writer either clearly had bad data or it was a case of "liars figure and figures lie." I suppose if you carefully pick your period of time you could probably also come up with 2 months (give or take a week or two as the numbers warrant) this year that were close to the coldest on record.