19 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

432
WTNT23 KNHC 280847
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.9W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.9W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 57.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 57.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[weatherbowl]

The east coast may have to watch this one.

[lab94]

Its now Hanna

[isobar65]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
HANNA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HANNA'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
INDICATING WESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE OCEAN IS PLENTY
WARM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF HOW HANNA
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
PLACING HANNA IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPACING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HANNA TO
PROMOTE STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV
COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
INTENSITY.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/10...DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE
TRACK BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW HANNA
WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW HANNA
BEING LEFT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...THE
TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
FORMER OF THOSE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.5N 59.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.4N 60.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.8N 61.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.4N 63.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 25.7N 65.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 70.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 27.5N 71.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[satellite_eyes]

ok so now we could have 2 separate hurricane landfalls next week, possibly on back to back days??? Wow has anything like this ever happened before? This is incredible.

[lab94]

isobar65, on Aug 28 2008, 11:51 AM, said:

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
HANNA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HANNA'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
INDICATING WESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE OCEAN IS PLENTY
WARM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF HOW HANNA
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
PLACING HANNA IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPACING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HANNA TO
PROMOTE STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV
COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
INTENSITY.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/10...DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE
TRACK BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW HANNA
WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW HANNA
BEING LEFT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...THE
TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
FORMER OF THOSE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.5N 59.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.4N 60.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.8N 61.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.4N 63.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 25.7N 65.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 70.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 27.5N 71.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

A good GFS???????????????????????????????

[vascudave]

gustav may postpone the rnc (second waste of money after the dnc)
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/28/gu...nvention-plans/

[Hurricaneff]

satellite_eyes, on Aug 28 2008, 01:05 PM, said:

ok so now we could have 2 separate hurricane landfalls next week, possibly on back to back days??? Wow has anything like this ever happened before? This is incredible.

never had two storms hit on the same day along the US coast,but did have two hurricanes hit land on the same day in the atlantic basin..

on aug 20th 1886 a Cat 1 hit Jamaica while a CAT 4 was hitting Texas


Then on Sept.19, 1955 Hurricane Hilda hit Mexico and Hurricane Ione hit North Carolina

[terryjohnson16]

Those people that live down near the gulf coast should not hesitate to evacuate. They seen what Katrina did back in 2005. Those hurricane's are a joke.

[icehater]

Euro makes a much bigger deal of Hanna then it does of Gustav. Slides Gustav west of NO and not as all that impressive of a storm but really blows up Hanna as a south Florida hit and then a much weaker hit in the GOM. Gustav looks to be getting pretty far west(it even looks like it veered a bit SW) so I wonder if it'll slow down and be a bigger threat to the lower GOM in central to south Texas as a mure impressive storm than the euro is showing.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...!!step/

[lab94]

6-z DGEX says hello Hana LOL

[metfan4life]

12z GFS

[WeatherCt]

Some models take this storm up the east coast and some models take it elsewhere.

[LongIslandWthr]

WeatherCt, on Aug 30 2008, 06:48 PM, said:

Some models take this storm up the east coast and some models take it elsewhere.

Thank you Captain Obvious

[lab94]

I read some great post on eastern today and learned a lot. But this had to be the most educational post ever made

post #670

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=...t&p=2990963

[metfan4life]

0z GFS

[snowfreak188]

that thing would be really nice if it was in the dead of winter and 25 degrees around here.

[metfan4life]

snowfreak188, on Aug 31 2008, 07:29 PM, said:

that thing would be really nice if it was in the dead of winter and 25 degrees around here.

I know but a Hurricane would also be nice around here.

[weatherbud]

WTNT23 KNHC 010848
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 72.4W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 225SE 225SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 72.4W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.4N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N 73.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.7N 74.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.2N 74.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.2N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 35.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 72.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[isobar65]

11AM update

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

HANNA'S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPROVING THIS
MORNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE NOW COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED
AND SUGGEST MAX WINDS NEAR 55 KT. I'M GOING TO CONSERVATIVELY SET
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT SINCE AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY. HAVING SAID THAT...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE LOCATED A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD BE
STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD
PREVIOUSLY INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT HAS DISSIPATED...AND HANNA NOW
FINDS ITSELF IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTAV'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW JUST NORTH OF HANNA...AND GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSISTING DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A
HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY 72
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN...AND HANNA
COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. STILL...PREDICTING THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY...AT DAYS 3-5 IS VERY DIFFICULT.

WHILE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...HANNA APPEARS TO BE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/4. A VERY SLOW WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSING HANNA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 36 HOURS
BASED ON THE LATEST MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE EXTENDED RANGES AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 23.0N 72.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.8N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.7N 73.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 22.9N 74.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 74.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 77.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 82.0W 35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA