20 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

Let's try this again!!

Make your predictions!

• Where do you think Gustav will make Landfall?
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• What time will he make Landfall?
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• How strong will Gustav be at landfall? (Hurricane- Cat 1-5)
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• What will Gustav's PEAK wind gust be for N.O?

DEADLINE SUNDAY 11PM!!!

[icehater]

I'll be a contrarian and I think the storm will surprise us and be further west with a landfall near Galveston as a strong cat 2 with 105-110 mph winds on Wednesday. New Orleans may be irrelavent with that track so I'd say peak gusts of 65-70 mph. Tornado threats in NO may be bigger than the cane threat if I am right. The storm will spend too much time outside the loop current and then closer to shallower water and land friction to hold together. Bottom line with this storm is the further west the weaker and ragged it'll get and the further east the stronger it should hold. East will also be a much earlier landfall. I do think we'll see a Cat5 storm with 165-170mph winds in the GOM at some point. But if it parralels land the combo of eyewall replacement and land interaction is going to disrupt the circ and weaken the storm substantially.

[lab94]

Here is my best guess. Sorry about the bad map

[wxtracker93]

Chauvin, LA
Monday 1 PM
Category 3 Hurricane
Peak gusts of 110MPH in New Orleans

[rgwp96]

terrebonne parish

10am monday

cat 2

85 wind gust

[Stormchaser]

Weak Category 4 landfall in Chauvin LA. Dry air is lessening, the central dense overcast is expanding, cloud tops are cooling over the LLC, the ULL in the western gulf is backing SW. It's completely possible that this explodes from a weak 115mph Cat 3 to a weak 140mph Cat 4 in 6-10 hours as the inner eye clears out. Plenty of time remaining for intensification. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[Hurricaneff]

Morgan City,LA
9:53am
Cat4--135mph
97

[lab94]

Looks close to 10 miles w of grande isle, I had a Cat e of winds of 115mph off by 5 mph but I forgot last night to change the 7:45pm to AM That would of been about as close as anyone could of gotten

[rgwp96]

official

Has been confirmed, the eye has made landfall

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011453
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL NEAR COCODRIE LOUISIANA...

[Stormchaser]

I nailed the landfall location as Chauvin is less than 1 mile from Cocodrie. However I bought into the stronger intensity idea and did bust by 20-25mph with that. So probably an A+ call for my track and D+/C- for intensity which puts me around B/B- overall. The storm never regained itself after Cuba, but we'll see if it even had to in the next 2 hours with New Orleans.

[rgwp96]

Stormchaser, on Sep 1 2008, 11:53 AM, said:

I nailed the landfall location as Chauvin is less than 1 mile from Cocodrie. However I bought into the stronger intensity idea and did bust by 20-25mph with that. So probably an A+ call for my track and D+/C- for intensity which puts me around B/B- overall. The storm never regained itself after Cuba, but we'll see if it even had to in the next 2 hours with New Orleans.

all I need is the peak gust in New Orleans of 85 and than I will help the nhc on the next one

[lab94]

rgwp96, on Sep 1 2008, 11:56 AM, said:

all I need is the peak gust in New Orleans of 85 and than I will help the nhc on the next one

LOL

[robbbs]

Stormchaser, on Sep 1 2008, 03:53 PM, said:

I nailed the landfall location as Chauvin is less than 1 mile from Cocodrie. However I bought into the stronger intensity idea and did bust by 20-25mph with that. So probably an A+ call for my track and D+/C- for intensity which puts me around B/B- overall. The storm never regained itself after Cuba, but we'll see if it even had to in the next 2 hours with New Orleans.

Storm -- You nailed the track as I also thought it would be in that vicinity. My concern all along has been flooding in NO and as you said, too early to tell how bad. BTW, I checked as many reporting stations still working and as of an hour ago all points east and north of Lake P are still reporting east winds. That's pushing all that lake water onto the western and southwestern shores bordering NO.

[Stormchaser]

rgwp96, on Sep 1 2008, 11:56 AM, said:

all I need is the peak gust in New Orleans of 85 and than I will help the nhc on the next one

Good call RG.

The northern eye wall band moving into New Orleans now.

[lab94]

robbbs, on Sep 1 2008, 11:58 AM, said:

Storm -- You nailed the track as I also thought it would be in that vicinity. My concern all along has been flooding in NO and as you said, too early to tell how bad. BTW, I checked as many reporting stations still working and as of an hour ago all points east and north of Lake P are still reporting east winds. That's pushing all that lake water onto the western and southwestern shores bordering NO.

What about mine? I said 10 miles west of Grande Isle, looke pretty close to it.LOL But as a Cat 3 with 115 mph only was a Cat 2 with 110MPH Not to bad though (except the time)

[Stormchaser]

robbbs, on Sep 1 2008, 11:58 AM, said:

Storm -- You nailed the track as I also thought it would be in that vicinity. My concern all along has been flooding in NO and as you said, too early to tell how bad. BTW, I checked as many reporting stations still working and as of an hour ago all points east and north of Lake P are still reporting east winds. That's pushing all that lake water onto the western and southwestern shores bordering NO.

Robbbs - agree. We both thought the track would be slightly east of NHC all along. That has played out, but hopefully no serious levee breaches with this right-front quad currently approaching NO. Strongest winds and surge coming onshore now.

[Stormchaser]

lab94, on Sep 1 2008, 12:02 PM, said:

What about mine? I said 10 miles west of Grande Isle, looke pretty close to it.LOL But as a Cat 3 with 115 mph only was a Cat 2 with 110MPH Not to bad though (except the time)

Lab - you and RG were the man, the myth, the legend with this one. In fact I just called NHC and told them to fire everyone and replace them with you and RG.

[lab94]

Stormchaser, on Sep 1 2008, 12:04 PM, said:

Lab - you and RG were the man, the myth, the legend with this one. In fact I just called NHC and told them to fire everyone and replace them with you and RG.

LOL you know the story about the blind, well you know the story.

[wxtracker93]

Stormchaser, on Sep 1 2008, 11:53 AM, said:

I nailed the landfall location as Chauvin is less than 1 mile from Cocodrie. However I bought into the stronger intensity idea and did bust by 20-25mph with that. So probably an A+ call for my track and D+/C- for intensity which puts me around B/B- overall. The storm never regained itself after Cuba, but we'll see if it even had to in the next 2 hours with New Orleans.

I too said Chauvin in my prediction. Not sure the exact wind reports, but I said 110MPH. The time was off by two hours, and category off by one.

wxtracker93, on Aug 31 2008, 11:27 AM, said:

Chauvin, LA
Monday 1 PM
Category 3 Hurricane
Peak gusts of 110MPH in New Orleans

[rgwp96]

highest wind gust I can find for New orleans is only 63 but that was at 7 in the morning. Im sure there were higher gusts, anybody find any higher? If not we all busted terrible on that