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Basically my thinking up until December 11th is something like this...
-Cold and a couple of snow chances up until the 26th (warming trend starts on the 27th)
-Turning a bit milder with High pressure in the area, and the potential for multiple rain threats and even milder temps (poss 60s) up until the 5th of December (pressure and weather being volatile in 3-4 day durations)
-starting from the 5th of December (strong cold front) temperature will start to drop and pressure increase with a persistent upper level trough in the area...
-The High moves out and a strong trough moves in...a possible repeat of the February 11th, 2006 storm for roughly December 11th, 2008.
*I used the January-February 2006 data along with the September, October, November pattern and oscillations(e.g., pressure, temperature, etc.).
This is just something to keep in mind when looking at the future GFS/EURO runs...
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#1
Posted 19 November 2008 - 12:14 AM
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MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
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#2
Posted 19 November 2008 - 08:39 AM
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The New Era, on Nov 19 2008, 12:14 AM, said:
Basically my thinking up until December 11th is something like this...
Cold and a couple of snow chances up until the 25th
Turning a bit milder with High pressure in the area, and the potential for multiple rain threats and even milder temps (poss 60s) up until the 5th of December (pressure and weather being volatile in 3-4 day durations)
starting from the 5th of December (strong cold front) temperature will start to drop and pressure increase...
The High moves out and a strong trough moves in...a possible repeat of the February 11th, 2006 storm for roughly December 11th, 2008.
I used the January-February 2006 data along with the September, October, November pattern and oscillations(e.g., pressure, temperature, etc.).
This is just something to keep in mind when looking at the future GFS/EURO runs...
More to come!
Cold and a couple of snow chances up until the 25th
Turning a bit milder with High pressure in the area, and the potential for multiple rain threats and even milder temps (poss 60s) up until the 5th of December (pressure and weather being volatile in 3-4 day durations)
starting from the 5th of December (strong cold front) temperature will start to drop and pressure increase...
The High moves out and a strong trough moves in...a possible repeat of the February 11th, 2006 storm for roughly December 11th, 2008.
I used the January-February 2006 data along with the September, October, November pattern and oscillations(e.g., pressure, temperature, etc.).
This is just something to keep in mind when looking at the future GFS/EURO runs...
More to come!
I don't see 60's but, what do I know.LOL Good luck with this outlook. Should be fun this year.
BTW I would watch the 12/4-12/6 period. Remember the 12/5 rule!!
Visit My Weather Station
station info on Weather Underground
Lab's Radar
Elevation 784'
11-12 SNOWFALL TO DATE 20.5"
09-10 Snowfall- 73.60" .....10-11 snowfall - 61.5"
07-08 snow total 39.45".. ...08-09 snowfall- 42.71"
station info on Weather Underground
Lab's Radar
Elevation 784'
11-12 SNOWFALL TO DATE 20.5"
09-10 Snowfall- 73.60" .....10-11 snowfall - 61.5"
07-08 snow total 39.45".. ...08-09 snowfall- 42.71"
#3
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:03 PM
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lab94, on Nov 19 2008, 08:39 AM, said:
I don't see 60's but, what do I know.LOL Good luck with this outlook. Should be fun this year.
BTW I would watch the 12/4-12/6 period. Remember the 12/5 rule!!
BTW I would watch the 12/4-12/6 period. Remember the 12/5 rule!!
Example would be on November 15-16 or October 24-25 or September 24-25th, but since there was so much moisture involved (no cold air that early in the year) in September the temperatures remained relatively low. However, come November's cold the increase in temperature was much more pronounced. What is even more interesting is that these events have come in two waves (Low Pressures). One event comes in a day or so before the main, being that this first event is along a warm front and brings in warmer air. This can also work in the opposite direction . When the first Low brings in cold air and the second, stronger Low, brings even more cold air. Seen or to be seen on October 26th and 28th and then November 19th and 21th...now this means that the trough digs down twice in a relatively short-period of time.
Yes there is more cold air, but there is also less warm air...warm entities shift south in later months (cold entities can shift farther south in later months). Warm entities also shift west ...For example, the warm High that is in the SW (caused the Santa Ana winds in CA) stays back and shifts a bit south instead of going east...Why does the High stay back? There is more cold air moving down from the north and warm air is forced south and west...the High gets hold- back and moves farther south when it does move east. A person knows that the pattern is the same when he sees the SAME entities but in different months...we saw the same High in October, which we are seeing in November now...but the High in October moved east at the right time and did not stay back...this causes the RESULT to change...instead of the trough forming farther inland because of the High/ridge that moved from the west coast to the east coast...the trough in November is farther east b/c there is more cold air pushing in and the ridge/High is located in the west instead of the east..So what happens when the ridge finally gets to the east coast? That result is what happens on November 27th-Early December...yea it will get warmer...but the High missed its MOMENT...in the sense that the pattern does not wait for the High to move east. The High now marks the warm trend that happened in early November or Mid October instead of the result that happened in late October...but there will be a twist, there may very well be a strong trough at the end. In any case we are in the warm period and the trough just represents the seasonal variations that are present now and were not present in October... So we need something to better fit this pattern and its COLD...and I have come up with January 06 into February 06.
In any case there was a strong high pressure dominance in all of these months, which allowed for some 3-4 day stretches of mild and slightly above avg weather conditions to come about. So instead of the High ending with the October 26th-October 28 trough it will end with something that happened in the early November warm period, but with a stronger trough...
Now, the January 06 end to Feb 06 early period going from Jan 24-Feb 12th marks the next cycle...which starts on Nov 24 and ends around Dec 11. I used this cycle because it fits the pattern and the volatility in pressure...it has that warm trend along with High pressure dominance...it has the SOUTHWEST shift in entities due to colder advection...it has a strong trough and storm that I have imagined for the November period...but now i shift it to December 11th period...
I shift it because at this moment the November 24-Dec 11 to Jan 24-Feb 12 06 period has not all the same pattern but the same degree of cold/warm as well.
So basically the Nov 24-Dec 11 should come close to copying the Jan 24-Feb 12 period...on Feb 11 06 we had a historic snowstorm. Two feet of snow in areas of the mid-Atlantic and the northeast.
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
#4
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:30 PM
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jesus. December 11 th ? stop stealing crap from eastern without quoting them
#5
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:32 PM
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my crystal ball says we will get a snowstorm sometime between today and april
#6
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:32 PM
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Keep your eye out for something like this on the GFS/EURO for the December 11th period...
Upper air maps for the February 11th 06 snowstorm:
BEFORE (2/10/06):
THE BEGINNING (2/11/06):
Upper air maps for the February 11th 06 snowstorm:
BEFORE (2/10/06):
THE BEGINNING (2/11/06):
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
#7
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:32 PM
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rgwp96, on Nov 19 2008, 06:30 PM, said:
jesus. December 11 th ? stop stealing crap from eastern without quoting them
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
#8
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:34 PM
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The New Era, on Nov 19 2008, 06:32 PM, said:
who said this?
you are banned from there but you can still view I guess
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...t=0&start=0
#9
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:37 PM
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rgwp96, on Nov 19 2008, 06:34 PM, said:
you are banned from there but you can still view I guess
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...t=0&start=0
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...t=0&start=0
I am banned b/c i do not follow the "elitists" on that forum...I got banned from accu b/c i refused to take down my victoria secret model.
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
#10
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:46 PM
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I'll let you know when we have a good threat guys ! 
Write up coming later this week or weekend. I have my eyes on the middle of next week, prior to Thanksgiving. Pop goes the weasle cause the weasle goes POP.
Write up coming later this week or weekend. I have my eyes on the middle of next week, prior to Thanksgiving. Pop goes the weasle cause the weasle goes POP.
Forecaster: John Ruggiano
AKA: Ruggie
Ruggie Weather Blog and Site:
2008-2009 Snow Events:
Nov 17,18,22, 2008: Trace /Flurries
Nov 20, 2008: 0.1" / Snow Showers
Nov 21, 2008: 0.5" / Lt.Snow
Dec 06, 2008: 0.4" / Lt.Snow
Jan 15, 2009: 0.3" / Snow Shower
Jan 27, 2009: 2.1" / Snow
Feb 03, 2009: 7.6" / Mod-Hvy Snow
Mar 02, 2009: 9.5" / Mod-Hvy Snow
Total so far: 20.5"
AKA: Ruggie
Ruggie Weather Blog and Site:
2008-2009 Snow Events:
Nov 17,18,22, 2008: Trace /Flurries
Nov 20, 2008: 0.1" / Snow Showers
Nov 21, 2008: 0.5" / Lt.Snow
Dec 06, 2008: 0.4" / Lt.Snow
Jan 15, 2009: 0.3" / Snow Shower
Jan 27, 2009: 2.1" / Snow
Feb 03, 2009: 7.6" / Mod-Hvy Snow
Mar 02, 2009: 9.5" / Mod-Hvy Snow
Total so far: 20.5"
#11
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:50 PM
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- Location:Pittsgrove, NJ
The New Era, on Nov 19 2008, 06:03 PM, said:
Yes, it may just mark a change...hopefully it will trend to better changes. 60s are possible b/c the pattern supports it. In the last three months(Nov included) we saw warm temperatures two days ahead of a strong cold front, temps which have even trended to record territory on the day of the cold front.
Example would be on November 15-16 or October 24-25 or September 24-25th, but since there was so much moisture involved (no cold air that early in the year) in September the temperatures remained relatively low. However, come November's cold the increase in temperature was much more pronounced. What is even more interesting is that these events have come in two waves (Low Pressures). One event comes in a day or so before the main, being that this first event is along a warm front and brings in warmer air. This can also work in the opposite direction . When the first Low brings in cold air and the second, stronger Low, brings even more cold air. Seen or to be seen on October 26th and 28th and then November 19th and 21th...now this means that the trough digs down twice in a relatively short-period of time.
Yes there is more cold air, but there is also less warm air...warm entities shift south in later months (cold entities can shift farther south in later months). Warm entities also shift west ...For example, the warm High that is in the SW (caused the Santa Ana winds in CA) stays back and shifts a bit south instead of going east...Why does the High stay back? There is more cold air moving down from the north and warm air is forced south and west...the High gets hold- back and moves farther south when it does move east. A person knows that the pattern is the same when he sees the SAME entities but in different months...we saw the same High in October, which we are seeing in November now...but the High in October moved east at the right time and did not stay back...this causes the RESULT to change...instead of the trough forming farther inland because of the High/ridge that moved from the west coast to the east coast...the trough in November is farther east b/c there is more cold air pushing in and the ridge/High is located in the west instead of the east..So what happens when the ridge finally gets to the east coast? That result is what happens on November 27th-Early December...yea it will get warmer...but the High missed its MOMENT...in the sense that the pattern does not wait for the High to move east. The High now marks the warm trend that happened in early November or Mid October instead of the result that happened in late October...but there will be a twist, there may very well be a strong trough at the end. In any case we are in the warm period and the trough just represents the seasonal variations that are present now and were not present in October... So we need something to better fit this pattern and its COLD...and I have come up with January 06 into February 06.
In any case there was a strong high pressure dominance in all of these months, which allowed for some 3-4 day stretches of mild and slightly above avg weather conditions to come about. So instead of the High ending with the October 26th-October 28 trough it will end with something that happened in the early November warm period, but with a stronger trough...
Now, the January 06 end to Feb 06 early period going from Jan 24-Feb 12th marks the next cycle...which starts on Nov 24 and ends around Dec 11. I used this cycle because it fits the pattern and the volatility in pressure...it has that warm trend along with High pressure dominance...it has the SOUTHWEST shift in entities due to colder advection...it has a strong trough and storm that I have imagined for the November period...but now i shift it to December 11th period...
I shift it because at this moment the November 24-Dec 11 to Jan 24-Feb 12 06 period has not all the same pattern but the same degree of cold/warm as well.
So basically the Nov 24-Dec 11 should come close to copying the Jan 24-Feb 12 period...on Feb 11 06 we had a historic snowstorm. Two feet of snow in areas of the mid-Atlantic and the northeast.
Example would be on November 15-16 or October 24-25 or September 24-25th, but since there was so much moisture involved (no cold air that early in the year) in September the temperatures remained relatively low. However, come November's cold the increase in temperature was much more pronounced. What is even more interesting is that these events have come in two waves (Low Pressures). One event comes in a day or so before the main, being that this first event is along a warm front and brings in warmer air. This can also work in the opposite direction . When the first Low brings in cold air and the second, stronger Low, brings even more cold air. Seen or to be seen on October 26th and 28th and then November 19th and 21th...now this means that the trough digs down twice in a relatively short-period of time.
Yes there is more cold air, but there is also less warm air...warm entities shift south in later months (cold entities can shift farther south in later months). Warm entities also shift west ...For example, the warm High that is in the SW (caused the Santa Ana winds in CA) stays back and shifts a bit south instead of going east...Why does the High stay back? There is more cold air moving down from the north and warm air is forced south and west...the High gets hold- back and moves farther south when it does move east. A person knows that the pattern is the same when he sees the SAME entities but in different months...we saw the same High in October, which we are seeing in November now...but the High in October moved east at the right time and did not stay back...this causes the RESULT to change...instead of the trough forming farther inland because of the High/ridge that moved from the west coast to the east coast...the trough in November is farther east b/c there is more cold air pushing in and the ridge/High is located in the west instead of the east..So what happens when the ridge finally gets to the east coast? That result is what happens on November 27th-Early December...yea it will get warmer...but the High missed its MOMENT...in the sense that the pattern does not wait for the High to move east. The High now marks the warm trend that happened in early November or Mid October instead of the result that happened in late October...but there will be a twist, there may very well be a strong trough at the end. In any case we are in the warm period and the trough just represents the seasonal variations that are present now and were not present in October... So we need something to better fit this pattern and its COLD...and I have come up with January 06 into February 06.
In any case there was a strong high pressure dominance in all of these months, which allowed for some 3-4 day stretches of mild and slightly above avg weather conditions to come about. So instead of the High ending with the October 26th-October 28 trough it will end with something that happened in the early November warm period, but with a stronger trough...
Now, the January 06 end to Feb 06 early period going from Jan 24-Feb 12th marks the next cycle...which starts on Nov 24 and ends around Dec 11. I used this cycle because it fits the pattern and the volatility in pressure...it has that warm trend along with High pressure dominance...it has the SOUTHWEST shift in entities due to colder advection...it has a strong trough and storm that I have imagined for the November period...but now i shift it to December 11th period...
I shift it because at this moment the November 24-Dec 11 to Jan 24-Feb 12 06 period has not all the same pattern but the same degree of cold/warm as well.
So basically the Nov 24-Dec 11 should come close to copying the Jan 24-Feb 12 period...on Feb 11 06 we had a historic snowstorm. Two feet of snow in areas of the mid-Atlantic and the northeast.
No way !
This is where I stopped reading ! Stick to spring and summer severe weather, PLEASE you are so out of tune with this NEW PATTERN.
Please read my AO thread and November outlook.
http://www.nycmetroweather.com/forums/inde...?showtopic=8126
Forecaster: John Ruggiano
AKA: Ruggie
Ruggie Weather Blog and Site:
2008-2009 Snow Events:
Nov 17,18,22, 2008: Trace /Flurries
Nov 20, 2008: 0.1" / Snow Showers
Nov 21, 2008: 0.5" / Lt.Snow
Dec 06, 2008: 0.4" / Lt.Snow
Jan 15, 2009: 0.3" / Snow Shower
Jan 27, 2009: 2.1" / Snow
Feb 03, 2009: 7.6" / Mod-Hvy Snow
Mar 02, 2009: 9.5" / Mod-Hvy Snow
Total so far: 20.5"
AKA: Ruggie
Ruggie Weather Blog and Site:
2008-2009 Snow Events:
Nov 17,18,22, 2008: Trace /Flurries
Nov 20, 2008: 0.1" / Snow Showers
Nov 21, 2008: 0.5" / Lt.Snow
Dec 06, 2008: 0.4" / Lt.Snow
Jan 15, 2009: 0.3" / Snow Shower
Jan 27, 2009: 2.1" / Snow
Feb 03, 2009: 7.6" / Mod-Hvy Snow
Mar 02, 2009: 9.5" / Mod-Hvy Snow
Total so far: 20.5"
#12
Posted 19 November 2008 - 06:58 PM
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RUGGIE WEATHER, on Nov 19 2008, 11:50 PM, said:
No way !
This is where I stopped reading ! Stick to spring and summer severe weather, PLEASE you are so out of tune with this NEW PATTERN.
Please read my AO thread.
This is where I stopped reading ! Stick to spring and summer severe weather, PLEASE you are so out of tune with this NEW PATTERN.
Please read my AO thread.
Agree 100% with Ruggie. It would be nice to have at least some measure of reality in some of the post narratives. Enthusiasm alone is not enough, if the rest is missing.
West Milford NJ
#13
Posted 19 November 2008 - 07:08 PM
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NJ data for the time period of January 24 to Feb 12 (possibly similar to November 24 to Feb 12)
Now let's step back and look at the event before the storm (2/4)(12/4?):
I would really like to start comparing that data to the GFS, but the GFS is all over the place so I will wait..
2006 Temp. (°F) Dew Point (°F) Humidity (%) Sea Level Pressure (in) January high avg low high avg low high avg low high avg low high avg low 1 42 36 29 34 30 27 91 80 65 30.20 - 29.81 - - - 2 45 39 32 40 33 28 95 81 56 30.24 - 29.87 - - - 3 42 37 35 41 35 31 96 93 86 30.03 - 29.78 - - - 4 38 34 29 33 27 22 92 77 61 30.08 - 29.80 - - - 5 51 41 35 41 35 31 96 81 56 29.80 - 29.64 - - - 6 42 37 29 33 25 15 82 64 49 29.83 - 29.67 - - - 7 36 28 22 19 14 11 67 56 42 29.99 - 29.84 - - - 8 47 38 30 34 26 19 89 63 38 30.10 - 29.94 - - - 9 60 47 36 41 37 33 92 70 48 30.25 - 29.91 - - - 10 49 40 33 32 30 28 86 68 46 30.51 - 30.26 - - - 11 53 41 32 52 39 29 97 92 84 30.40 - 29.86 - - - 12 58 49 40 50 38 34 94 67 42 30.05 - 29.89 - - - 13 54 42 36 53 40 34 98 95 83 30.02 - 29.60 - - - 14 58 49 29 58 48 27 99 96 78 29.58 - 29.11 - - - 15 29 24 16 27 10 -1 93 56 28 29.85 - 29.24 - - - 16 30 22 15 10 6 2 63 52 35 30.02 - 29.86 - - - 17 43 31 20 42 23 10 97 71 54 30.18 - 29.90 - - - 18 64 47 35 59 41 22 100 79 52 30.00 - 29.38 - - - 19 46 39 32 31 24 20 71 56 38 30.33 - 30.00 - - - 20 59 46 32 38 34 28 85 65 44 30.19 - 30.09 - - - 21 63 49 37 47 36 23 77 62 44 30.41 - 29.88 - - - 22 44 36 28 28 18 13 71 49 31 30.69 - 30.42 - - - 23 41 38 34 41 37 29 98 95 72 30.41 - 29.89 - - - 24 47 38 31 34 27 19 97 71 33 29.93 - 29.57 - - - 25 42 37 34 34 29 20 95 74 55 29.85 - 29.56 - - - 26 35 30 23 22 15 11 63 53 43 30.45 - 29.85 - - - 27 42 31 21 16 12 8 69 48 24 30.57 - 30.36 - - - 28 58 43 32 28 23 16 63 45 28 30.36 - 30.10 - - - 29 52 44 36 49 38 27 98 78 56 30.11 - 29.65 - - - 30 63 49 41 51 44 40 99 87 46 29.78 - 29.68 - - - 31 42 40 39 42 37 30 99 89 68 29.82 - 29.57 - - - February Temp. (°F) Dew Point (°F) Humidity (%) Sea Level Pressure (in) high avg low high avg low high avg low high 1 42 38 33 30 26 23 76 61 52 29.97 - 29.82 - - - 2 56 42 31 41 33 26 88 72 42 29.99 - 29.88 - - - 3 63 53 44 57 47 39 98 81 54 29.86 - 29.53 - - - 4 57 44 38 57 42 37 99 92 73 29.88 - 29.29 - - - 5 57 44 36 56 33 22 98 68 49 29.62 - 29.27 - - - 6 40 36 32 23 18 14 64 49 37 29.85 - 29.62 - - - 7 43 36 30 24 19 14 67 51 39 29.99 - 29.85 - - - 8 38 32 28 25 19 15 71 60 41 30.05 - 29.97 - - - 9 36 29 22 21 12 3 76 51 28 30.08 - 29.98 - - - 10 38 31 23 20 15 12 81 53 37 30.17 - 30.06 - - - 11 37 32 30 31 24 16 93 73 54 30.10 - 29.74 - - - 12 30 25 22 28 22 15 93 88 76 29.79 - 29.52 - - -
Now let's step back and look at the event before the storm (2/4)(12/4?):
I would really like to start comparing that data to the GFS, but the GFS is all over the place so I will wait..
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
#14
Posted 19 November 2008 - 07:16 PM
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- Banned
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- Location:East Brunswick, NJ
RUGGIE WEATHER, on Nov 19 2008, 06:50 PM, said:
No way !
This is where I stopped reading ! Stick to spring and summer severe weather, PLEASE you are so out of tune with this NEW PATTERN.
Please read my AO thread and November outlook.
http://www.nycmetroweather.com/forums/inde...?showtopic=8126
This is where I stopped reading ! Stick to spring and summer severe weather, PLEASE you are so out of tune with this NEW PATTERN.
Please read my AO thread and November outlook.
http://www.nycmetroweather.com/forums/inde...?showtopic=8126
I am not saying that it will happen every day...I am saying that it COULD HAPPEN. I clearly stated that i think we are going to have below avg temps before 11/27 and after 12/5. In between those two periods the weather conditions will be going up and down.
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
#15
Posted 19 November 2008 - 07:26 PM
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- Administrator
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- 1,921 posts
- Gender:Male
I've deleted the irrelevant posts. Guys, keep it to discussing the weather. This is not the place for arguing and name-calling.
With that said, let's try to keep some substance in our posts about weather patterns.
With that said, let's try to keep some substance in our posts about weather patterns.
Brett
Harvard University '16
"Then come the wild weather,
come sleet or come snow,
we will stand by each other,
however it blow."
-Simon Dach
Follow me on Twitter
Like the NYC Metro Weather Facebook page
Harvard University '16
"Then come the wild weather,
come sleet or come snow,
we will stand by each other,
however it blow."
-Simon Dach
Follow me on Twitter
Like the NYC Metro Weather Facebook page
#16
Posted 19 November 2008 - 07:37 PM
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- Banned
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- 60 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:East Brunswick, NJ
Ruggie,
You probably remember when people were calling for the cold to start in the middle of November (same pattern) ....funny enough we reached past 70F on the 16th...then the cold came in...It is cold.
Ruggie come on...aren't people comparing this period to the October 28th storm? I bet one of the mets on EUSWX did. I started making these comparisons way back in October...between Paloma on 11/5 and Omar on 10/13...it makes sense. I did not get Paloma right for nothing...you can go to Accuweather to see for yourself.
http://forums.accuwe...hp?showforum=48
I also said that we will have a strong trough and the potential for snow around the 20th of November...What is happening now?
http://www.easternus...howtopic=178568
You probably remember when people were calling for the cold to start in the middle of November (same pattern) ....funny enough we reached past 70F on the 16th...then the cold came in...It is cold.
Ruggie come on...aren't people comparing this period to the October 28th storm? I bet one of the mets on EUSWX did. I started making these comparisons way back in October...between Paloma on 11/5 and Omar on 10/13...it makes sense. I did not get Paloma right for nothing...you can go to Accuweather to see for yourself.
http://forums.accuwe...hp?showforum=48
I also said that we will have a strong trough and the potential for snow around the 20th of November...What is happening now?
http://www.easternus...howtopic=178568
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
#17
Posted 19 November 2008 - 07:47 PM
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- Banned
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- 60 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:East Brunswick, NJ
Some things go exactly as planned but some things do not...that High sticking around near CA was a downfall...so that is why I am using something else this time...I am also comparing this pattern to similar past conditions (11/24/06-12/13/06 to 1/24/06-2/12/06)
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
#18
Posted 19 November 2008 - 08:20 PM
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- Members
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- 16,099 posts
- Location:Northern Monmouth county
wxtracker93, on Nov 19 2008, 07:26 PM, said:
I've deleted the irrelevant posts. Guys, keep it to discussing the weather. This is not the place for arguing and name-calling.
With that said, let's try to keep some substance in our posts about weather patterns.
With that said, let's try to keep some substance in our posts about weather patterns.
Be careful Brett or you'll have a board loaded with litter. This thread is a fantasy thread, not a scientific one, and it's already the second one of the day. You can only imagine what this will be like in the real season if allowed to continue. Take the advice however you want or delete the post, but I think I have mountains of experience over you in matters like this.
Monmouth county NJ
#19
Posted 19 November 2008 - 08:24 PM
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icehater, on Nov 20 2008, 01:20 AM, said:
Be careful Brett or you'll have a board loaded with litter. This thread is a fantasy thread, not a scientific one, and it's already the second one of the day. You can only imagine what this will be like in the real season if allowed to continue. Take the advice however you want or delete the post, but I think I have mountains of experience over you in matters like this.
Brett -- I agree 100% with Icehater. And to lump a number of posts in the deleted category in this thread, including one by a pro met who was ridiculously name-called, misses the point and diminishes the real problem here.
West Milford NJ
#20
Posted 19 November 2008 - 08:49 PM
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icehater, on Nov 19 2008, 08:20 PM, said:
Be careful Brett or you'll have a board loaded with litter. This thread is a fantasy thread, not a scientific one, and it's already the second one of the day. You can only imagine what this will be like in the real season if allowed to continue. Take the advice however you want or delete the post, but I think I have mountains of experience over you in matters like this.
Every elitist has followers. These followers/elitists think they know more than everybody. They never provide useful input and they only think by certain guidelines. Truly, psychology is amazing. Notice. these people never provided useful information that would go against with what I have said . They just come in here and post derogatory comments. These elitists are trying to bully me...LOL. Again, I am sorry for going off-topic...
They are not listening to what you said , because in reality they think they are better than you. If they though otherwise, they would have stopped posting irrelevant posts like you have asked. I just have too much pride in my work and I won't be trolled like this. Please let's go back on topic, and I am sorry for going off topic.
..btw I am a senior at Rutgers.
Elitists,
If you guys have any questions in regards to my call please post them, I will gladly try to answer those questions. Let's just play nice.
TNE
MY THEORY-PATTERN CLAIM:
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
STRONG TROUGH--COASTAL STORM--WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM 12/9-12/13 (avg 12/11)
A PATTERN IS A PATTERN...IT REPEATS ITSELF!!!!!
Generally speaking,
A tropical entity marks a new cycle of the same pattern. (Kyle, Omar, Paloma, Invest 96L)
Just take the day a pronounced-remote tropical entity formed, find the difference between that tropical entity and the entity that formed in the last cycle.
So you have...
1)
START DATE:
Weak-Invest 96L (11/24 to 11/28, to be safe...because usually each tropical entity marks a warming trend in the EAST) and then Paloma (11/5)
28-5= + 23
24-5= + 19
2)
THE EVENT DATE (END OF CYCLE):
The benchmark/date for the event that you are trying to find...which is 10/28/08- This is when we had that strong coastal/ some snow and that strong trough...I am assuming that this is just a cycle in a pattern so something like this should happen again? Right? (started with 9/28/08..then 10/28....but I elaborated the pattern to 11/20/08) It did happen again.
I take 11/20/08- the date I came up with on November 3rd using my pattern...remember that I was generally right...we had very cold conditions...and we had a couple of coastal chances that resulted in a few snow showers...I will also assume that this event marks the end of a pattern.
-Now you just add the (positive) difference you found in step 1 to step 2 in order to find the next date of a similar storm:
(Start difference subtracted or added (in this case) to the event date)
20+23=13 of the next month or 12/13/08 TO
20+19=9th of the next month or 12/9/08
AVG DATE: 13+9/2= 22/2=11- December 11th, 2008 for the next coastal with cold air advection in the area.
Now what I am assuming here is that this pattern is progressive and moves at a constant rate from one month to the next; however, that is not always the case. The High/Ridge out west failed to move east, causing our 11/20 system to drift out to the east. This is considering that we had the cold air advection but we did not have enough warm air advection.
Also, one must note that the major changes is where everything forms because of the amount of cold air allotted. The monthly variations should tell that story. I also note that storms usually formed farther west and south with each passing month. Should that ring a bell? I mean think about it. Hurricanes form the same way...first they can form in the Atlantic, then the threat drifts to the east Caribbean by October, then to the deep-west Caribbean by November/December.
Anyways, in order to know if your cycle will move at the same pace as the one before...you must have an analog. I found similar features and pressure/temperature variations in late January 06 to February 11-12th as i did in Nov 5th to Nov 23...which brought me to the same general date-12/11 (using the 2/11 snowstorm as a benchmark)...It is the same date for a THREAT of a major storm/coastal with a strong trough present.
This is assuming that January 24 06 to February 11-12 is as cold as the November 24th- Dec 11-13th period ...and it is assuming that even though the
1/24/06-2/12/06 has differences with 11/5-11/23, it still managed to come to a similar result...Result for both analog period and November period: a strong trough and a coastal threat. Giving me some belief that there is a natural pattern present.
Now I am just using the long-range models (GFS) as guidance.
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