73 replies to this topic

[The New Era]

I have already started a thread on the potential for a winter storm around 12/11, and I think the pattern that we had in the last couple of months would EVOLVE to something we had late January '06 into early February '06.
http://www.nycmetroweather.com/forums/inde...?showtopic=8259
But it is very interesting that the GFS follows my logic...
I think the GFS has a cold bias between Nov 27th up until the 4th of Dec
I 100 percent agree with the GFS about a strong cold front around the 4th...and the potential to see daytime highs in the 30s.

12z GFS:




Now what happens on the Dec 9th-384 GFS is not all fantasy at this point...
Energy in the SE Pacific eventually gets picked up by a trough/short-wave energy building down, and moves-in and around the coast because of a ridge in the Atlantic.
Main players:
-Ridge in the west
-coupled with a Ridge around MX and the Gulf
-Ridge in the Atlantic (favorable)
-Upper level Low covering the Northeast with its cold
-Another upper level Low in Canada... coming on the backside...the picker-upper for the energy down south
-Upper level High in Canada (somewhere west and close by) ...the mechanism that will drop the trough.


Check this out...(looks like the cold upper level High is way up there on the left...and the trough is in Canada on the right):
btw, this is still a bit too unclear and convoluted...but I really like that strong ridge building into the west along with that ridge around MX...a good step forward.

[LongIslandWthr]

The New Era, on Nov 22 2008, 10:37 PM, said:

There is really no point for me to post here. I am out of here.

And I thought you were not going to post on this board anymore; you should really work on making yourself clear.

[LongIslandWthr]

Oh my lord, follows your "Logic"!? Those are friggin 380hour GFS maps, you have got to be kidding me LOL

[icehater]

Let's see. Any hail or thundersnow with this one? How about snow tornados? Snow derecho, maybe?

[wishcast_hater]

How freaking ridiculous! Why waste the time to even post that? Its stupid stuff like this that makes me wonder why I even come to this site.

[rgwp96]

wishcast_hater, on Nov 23 2008, 05:14 PM, said:

How freaking ridiculous! Why waste the time to even post that? Its stupid stuff like this that makes me wonder why I even come to this site.

I hear you loud and clear.

[ericjcrash]

Wow. 380 hr GFS, and highs in the 30's would be a stretch its only been about 35 max for almost a week.

[ericjcrash]

You have to love how he points out potential cold air when those temps are being observed currently yet he'll do a whole topic/post on a storm literally weeks from now.

[satellite_eyes]

wishcast_hater, on Nov 23 2008, 05:14 PM, said:

How freaking ridiculous! Why waste the time to even post that? Its stupid stuff like this that makes me wonder why I even come to this site.

Yeah because people do that all the time on this site right? Don't think so. Not really sure where you're getting that from.

[icehater]

wishcast_hater, on Nov 23 2008, 05:14 PM, said:

How freaking ridiculous! Why waste the time to even post that? Its stupid stuff like this that makes me wonder why I even come to this site.

It's worth it because most folks around here are realistic about weather and weather potential. So just separate out the juvenile wish-casting posts from realistic ones. The pattern we will be in does allow for the potential of a coastal storm and once you cross the first day or two of December you take that potential a lot more seriously. But you only use 4-6 day out models for reference and then you see if they can consistently hold the storm, and hold it in a near stationary track and position, for a day or so of runs before making a realistic assessment. To use a 10-15 day out GFS - well that's pure fantasy and wishing along with the need to make a thread based on wishing and hoping rather than science. Just look at how his thundersnow thread is about to crash and burn.

[wxtracker93]

Considering what you are forecasting is almost 3 weeks out, what makes you think your forecast is meteorologically sound?

[NYBrit]

wishcast_hater, on Nov 23 2008, 05:14 PM, said:

How freaking ridiculous! Why waste the time to even post that? Its stupid stuff like this that makes me wonder why I even come to this site.

You son't have to read every post you know? Just pick and choose. That's what I'm going to start to do soon.

[snowshoe]

If you give these people a hard enough time they wont want to post. Sometimes it is better not to ignore but rather give them a hard time. Whatever happened to the guy from Buffalo or someplace out that way. Forget his name. I dont hear from him anymore as well as others we gave hard time to. It sounds mean but sometimes it is the only way.

[The New Era]

wxtracker93, on Nov 23 2008, 06:42 PM, said:

Considering what you are forecasting is almost 3 weeks out, what makes you think your forecast is meteorologically sound?

Brett,
Nothing in meteorology is sound, at this point I think there is the potential for such a winter event to occur around the given time. I started a thread on the pattern that I think we are in , and I believe a new cycle in this pattern will start today and last until December 12.
Basically, the pattern starts on the cool side depending on the month, then warms up and fluctuates, then cools back and below the starting avg due to a strong upper level trough, which eventually results in a coastal. This pattern is seen in November, October, September.
There are all also sub-patterns in every one pattern, governing how entities form, and progress. I picked January 24th to Feb 12 06 because of a similar pattern in temperature and pressure that we have seen from November 5th to November 23rd. I used the GFS and the EURO as guidance in order to see if similar entities are seen on November 24th that have been present on January 24th 06, and my comparison has been fairly positive.
Also, I think my comparison should be fairly positive because of the 'amount' of cold air that is already in place and the potential amount of cold air that can be in place in December (given the records). I think late January 06 to early Feb should work out well for the next couple of weeks.
I started this thread because the GFS at this point resembles the late January '06 to early February pattern, which eventually leads to a strong storm roughly 5-6 days after the strong cold front. Does that sound familiar? It should... Overall, the two major differences in the monthly patterns is the duration of a specific event ,and the amount of cold air that is in place.


I continue to like the 384hr GFS. This pattern fits the Feb 10 06 like pattern...
I mentioned the main players in the first post



We are getting hotter...the 384 hr looks more plausible in terms of the players involved...I especially like the complex forming in south TX.

[NYBrit]

snowshoe, on Nov 24 2008, 10:51 AM, said:

If you give these people a hard enough time they wont want to post. Sometimes it is better not to ignore but rather give them a hard time. Whatever happened to the guy from Buffalo or someplace out that way. Forget his name. I dont hear from him anymore as well as others we gave hard time to. It sounds mean but sometimes it is the only way.

Good point Snowshoe

[lab94]

The New Era, on Nov 24 2008, 12:41 PM, said:

Brett,
Nothing in meteorology is sound, at this point I think there is the potential for such a winter event to occur around the given time. I started a thread on the pattern that I think we are in , and I believe a new cycle in this pattern will start today and last until December 12.
Basically, the pattern starts on the cool side depending on the month, then warms up and fluctuates, then cools back below the starting avg due to a strong upper level trough, which eventually results in a coastal. This pattern is seen in November, October, September.
There are all also sub-patterns in every one pattern, governing how entities form, and progress. I picked January 24th to Feb 12 06 because of a similar pattern in temperature and pressure that we have seen from November 5th to November 23rd. I used the GFS and the EURO as guidance in order to see if similar entities are seen on November 24th that have been present on January 24th 06, and my comparison has been fairly positive.
Also, I think my comparison should be fairly positive because of the 'amount' of cold air that is already in place and the potential amount of cold air that can be in place in December (given the records). I think late January 06 to early Feb should work out well for the next couple of weeks.
I started this thread because the GFS at this point resembles the late January '06 to early February pattern, which eventually leads to a strong storm roughly 5-6 days after the strong cold front. Does that sound familiar? It should... Overall, the two major differences in the monthly patterns is the duration of a specific event ,and the amount of cold air that is in place.


I continue to like the 384hr GFS. This pattern fits the Feb 10 06 like pattern...
I mentioned the main players in the first post

300_060210_12.gif

We are getting hotter...the 384 hr looks more plausible in terms of the players involved...I especially like the complex forming in south TX.

gfs_sl8_384m.gif

UMMM

Sorry, but if I had a nickel and got laid everytime the gfs showed something wrong at the 384 hr. Well, I would be a happy man!!!

[vascudave]

The New Era, on Nov 24 2008, 01:41 PM, said:

Brett,
Nothing in meteorology is sound, at this point I think there is the potential for such a winter event to occur around the given time. I started a thread on the pattern that I think we are in , and I believe a new cycle in this pattern will start today and last until December 12.
Basically, the pattern starts on the cool side depending on the month, then warms up and fluctuates, then cools back below the starting avg due to a strong upper level trough, which eventually results in a coastal. This pattern is seen in November, October, September.
There are all also sub-patterns in every one pattern, governing how entities form, and progress. I picked January 24th to Feb 12 06 because of a similar pattern in temperature and pressure that we have seen from November 5th to November 23rd. I used the GFS and the EURO as guidance in order to see if similar entities are seen on November 24th that have been present on January 24th 06, and my comparison has been fairly positive.
Also, I think my comparison should be fairly positive because of the 'amount' of cold air that is already in place and the potential amount of cold air that can be in place in December (given the records). I think late January 06 to early Feb should work out well for the next couple of weeks.
I started this thread because the GFS at this point resembles the late January '06 to early February pattern, which eventually leads to a strong storm roughly 5-6 days after the strong cold front. Does that sound familiar? It should... Overall, the two major differences in the monthly patterns is the duration of a specific event ,and the amount of cold air that is in place.


I continue to like the 384hr GFS. This pattern fits the Feb 10 06 like pattern...
I mentioned the main players in the first post

300_060210_12.gif

We are getting hotter...the 384 hr looks more plausible in terms of the players involved...I especially like the complex forming in south TX.

gfs_sl8_384m.gif

what you talkin about willis? sorry but you confused the hell out of me.
well, i know why i don't post forecasts.

[NittanyLion]

This is where you have problems:

Quote

I also hope that this storm does come to pass in order to shut some of you up.

Forecasts shouldn't include hope.

[NYBrit]

Oh new era grow up and stop throwing your toys out of your pram!
All people are trying to say to you is the storm is too far out in time to have any clue what will happen
Hell you can't even know if it'll still be there 10 hours from now.
Too much can happen between now and then to talk about this potential storm with any seriousness.
Just note that it's there and wait to see what happens.
NO MORE HYPE PLEASE!

[The New Era]

NittanyLion, on Nov 24 2008, 01:51 PM, said:

This is where you have problems:



Forecasts shouldn't include hope.

Hope is what keeps us moving. A wise person should never think that his forecast is right; however, a wise person should always hope that his forecast will turn out to be right. Hope marks positive change, without hope a person cannot change his views for the better. I hope to be right so I can correct my mistakes before I am undoubtedly wrong. As an example, I hope to be right as in I hope to win. There is always that chance you will win, but having hope gives you the extra edge to push yourself and come closer to being the actual winner, or in this case coming closer to making the actual right call.