5 replies to this topic

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

12/8/08: Monday AM
Discussion:

A Roller Coaster of a ride is on tap for this week, as Mother Nature wants to throw everthing at us in a 5 day period. We start off today Very Cold as we continue to hang onto the Arctic air that moved in over the weekend. Many areas did see a Coating to 1" of snow Saturday night, followed by strong winds and Very Cold Conditions on Sunday. Here I received 0.4" of snow Saturday night.

Today we can expect Mostly Sunny Skies and continued very cold, with Highs in the low 30's. The winds will decrease so it won't feel as harsh. Tonight continues quite cold with lows in the low to mid 20's, with Partly Cloudy Skies.

Tuesday is where the changes begin as a SW flow of milder air, and a warm front approach from the south and Southwest. Clouds will increase throughout the day and temps will rebound to near 50. Tuesday Night We'll begin to see some precip. move in as low pressure, developes in the southern Plains and moves east. Periods of light rain and mild temps in the 40's can be expected.

Wednesday will be unseasonably warm, and quite wet with some periods of rain, as our Plains system cuts to our west and a strong cold front approaches. Winds and warm air will increase ahead of this front, and we could actually break the 60 degree mark. This will be very short lived as a very strong Cold front moves in on Wednesday night and temperatures drop quickly throught the 40's during the evening and back to the 30's later at night. A few thunderstorms and steady rain will develop later Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Later Wednesday night the cold air really rushes in and a second storm develops over the SE States. This could cause some problems, from later Wednesday night into Thursday, as the rain will likely mix with or change to Sleet and Snow, especially west of PHL and to the NYC area.

So for Thursday, we can expect some mixed precip of Rain, Sleet, and Snow possibly changing to all snow during the day. Temps will remain in the 30's and the exact track of the storm from the SE States will determine, just how much of a threat for Snow and Ice this system will bring. Some models are suggesting we get a brief change over with little accumulation, and some are indicating a chance for accumulating snow and a storm track, just off the M/A Coast. It's really too early to say just where this storm tracks, but this needs to be watched and some areas could get accumulating snow on Thursday, Especially North and West of Philly.

Friday we should clear out with Partly Sunny Skies, but the cold weather stays and temperatures should remain in the 30's with Breezy conditions.

I'll have more on Tuesday Night or Wednesday with the Ice and Snow threat for Thursday.

Take Care,
Ruggie

[isobar65]

Ruggie...........nice writeup, just hope we don't see blowtorch conditions around the holiday period.

[Mike_The_Golfer]

isobar65, on Dec 8 2008, 09:06 AM, said:

Ruggie...........nice writeup, just hope we don't see blowtorch conditions around the holiday period.

I'd like snow, but if it's not going to snow...it might as well be blowtorch.

[isobar65]

Mike_The_Golfer, on Dec 8 2008, 12:16 PM, said:

I'd like snow, but if it's not going to snow...it might as well be blowtorch.

True, better than seeing a cold rain I guess.

[metfan4life]

What are your latest thoughts about the storm Ruggie?

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

metfan4life, on Dec 10 2008, 01:31 PM, said:

What are your latest thoughts about the storm Ruggie?

Discussion: 12/10/08
Wednesday PM Update.

Most areas experienced a warm day and scattered showers today, but big changes are on the way starting tonight. A slow moving Cold Front will move through the region tonight as colder air begins to filter in and temps drop to the low and middle 40's. Tomorrow the frontal system will slow down and become stationary just to our east, but the colder air will continue to filter in as temps remain between 40 and 45 with some heavier rains moving in during the late morning and afternoon hours.

An area of weak low pressure will move from the Gulf of Mexico along this frontal boundary tomorrow into Friday. The track of this storm will be too far west as it moves from Georgia to Central NC, then to near NJ by later Thursday night. This track will prevent the colder air to charge in and prevent any problems for accumulating snow across the region.

Plenty of moderate to heavy rain is likely later Thursday into Thursday night, with 1.50" to perhaps 2.50" of total rainfall, with very raw and chilly temps in the middle 30's can be expected. There's a chance for a period of sleet and wet snow later Thursday night into Friday AM before our storm exits NE into New England.

An Upper level low will follow the surface low and could support this changeover and prolong the precip into Friday Morning. Some areas North and West of PHL could see a coating to perhaps 1".

For PHL, Northern DE, and parts of Interior Southern NJ/Central NJ, a brief period of Sleet and wet snow is possible Early Friday AM, with no accumulations, other than a light coating in a few spots. This includes NE NJ into the NYC Metro Area.

For North Central and NW NJ, Some ZR and IP mix with and change to wet snow Thursday Night into Friday AM with 1" to 3" of accumulation. Up to 4" or 5" possible in the highest elevations of NW NJ mountains.

On Friday the system moves out with breezy and continued cold conditions. Highs will be in the Upper 30's to low 40's with Cloudy skies giving away to some sunshine during the afternoon hours.

The weekend looks to be dry and Chilly with P.Cloudy skies. Highs mainly in the 30's on Saturday and in the low to mid 40's on Sunday. Lows will be in the 20's.

Ruggie