96 replies to this topic

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

Not a bad run at all. A nice shot of snow and ice from near 40N and into new England. BWI, PHL and NYC are in the mix and have a shot for some ice and snow for next Fri/Sat. Beyond and into Day 10 looks better, as it's showing some signs of the North Atlantic Ridge coming back and nosing into Greenland. So some blocking is beginning to develop again.

Also a nice clipper and Arctic front moving SE across the G/L and Midwest of days 9 and 10, then heading for the M/A and NE states. The Northern Branch looks like it wants to start nosing down, and carving a trough in the G/L and NE States, once again.

So heading into Christmas week, things are looking much better for colder conditions, some snow chances, and a much better pattern for the M/A and NE.

IMO a good run here !

Ruggie

[devilsfan0405]

Don't worry, it'll change.

[satellite_eyes]

Suuuuure it looks good now. It has to pull us in to tease us first! I think the best thing we could all do is just take a full week off from looking at anything. We'll meet right back here next Friday and see where we're at.

[Stormchaser]

Ruggie,

You and I have been on the same page for awhile now!

The difference here is we're actually changing the pattern in terms of large scale indices, with both the AO and NAO headed negative after the 15th. Thus I have more faith in the late week system (2nd overrunning event) than the first event mid week -- probably too warm.

The Euro and GFS have actually been fairly consistent in recent runs depicting the tight baroclinic zone w/ storminess running W-E along it. The issue is exactly where does that battleground set-up? Virginia? DC? NY? That will be dependent on the intensity of sfc HP in Canada, which I'm betting will trend strong w/ each model cycle. The negative AO is never a blowtorch signal for December in the Northeast.

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

Stormchaser, on Dec 12 2008, 03:39 PM, said:

Ruggie,

You and I have been on the same page for awhile now!

The difference here is we're actually changing the pattern in terms of large scale indices, with both the AO and NAO headed negative after the 15th. Thus I have more faith in the late week system (2nd overrunning event) than the first event mid week -- probably too warm.

The Euro and GFS have actually been fairly consistent in recent runs depicting the tight baroclinic zone w/ storminess running W-E along it. The issue is exactly where does that battleground set-up? Virginia? DC? NY? That will be dependent on the intensity of sfc HP in Canada, which I'm betting will trend strong w/ each model cycle. The negative AO is never a blowtorch signal for December in the Northeast.

I Agree overall. The GFS is more bullish on the SE Ridge and the Euro is more flat. There's alot of High Pressure strung out from the Plains into the Midwest and SE Canada. The Euro is showing more zonal and flat stream in the east or should I say more Suppressed. The biggest threat will be between Friday and Sunday with the second system (Wave and Overrunning event) This is where I see the most potential. There after blocking and NEG NAO is showing up on day 10 with the Euro and the Northern branch is showing signs of a plunge int the NE and M/A States

Ruggie

[metfan4life]

This pattern that we are going to go into next week looks very interesting. I think we have a good chance of seeing snow from one of these systems coming up next week. The models are also switching to a colder 2nd half of December. Fun times ahead ( Well I hope lol). Do you think the 1st wave could still bring areas wintry precip or do you think only the 2nd wave has a decent chance of doing so?

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

metfan4life, on Dec 12 2008, 06:05 PM, said:

This pattern that we are going to go into next week looks very interesting. I think we have a good chance of seeing snow from one of these systems coming up next week. The models are also switching to a colder 2nd half of December. Fun times ahead ( Well I hope lol). Do you think the 1st wave could still bring areas wintry precip or do you think only the 2nd wave as a decent chance of doing so?

2nd wave has the better shot, but can't rule out some wintry precip with the first system. I would say NYC and points north with the first, then areas further south with the second system towards nex weekend.

The 18Z GFS run just went nutz with cold onslot and storm after storm (Snow) for Christmas week and into the extended period. Very Cold and Snowy for the M/A and NE.

[metfan4life]

RUGGIE WEATHER, on Dec 12 2008, 06:35 PM, said:

2nd wave has the better shot, but can't rule out some wintry precip with the first system. I would say NYC and points north with the first, then areas further south with the second system towards nex weekend.

The 18Z GFS run just went nutz with cold onslot and storm after storm (Snow) for Christmas week and into the extended period. Very Cold and Snowy for the M/A and NE.

Thanks Ruggie.


Here is the cold outbreak shown on the 18z GFS.

NYC

[Stormchaser]

The Day 7-10 ECMWF 500mb mean depicts the pattern I'm anticipating very well. Tight S-N gradient w/ big cold over the north and warmth along the SE US, yielding one heck of a baroclinic/overrunning zone. Note also the enormous -EPO induced Alaskan block.

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

Stormchaser, on Dec 12 2008, 07:03 PM, said:

The Day 7-10 ECMWF 500mb mean depicts the pattern I'm anticipating very well. Tight S-N gradient w/ big cold over the north and warmth along the SE US, yielding one heck of a baroclinic/overrunning zone. Note also the enormous -EPO induced Alaskan block.

Also notice with North Atlantic Ridge and the -EPO and Alaskan Block, that a Cross polar Flow is trying to get established and develop.

If we could indeed have this verify, and the two blocks hold, then a fierce Cross Polar flow -AO would unleash the Arctic into the central and Eastern US towards month's end and into Early January.

Stormchaser, winter is on the way, and now climatology will be on our side.
I really think the EURO and GFS are finally getting things correct in the long range, after the past couple weeks of back and forth and long range confussion.

Ruggie

[robbbs]

With all due respect, let me see if we have this right -- If the models show mild and boring weather in the long term, they're wrong and should be ignored. If the models show cold and snow chances, buy into them. Got it. No disrespect meant here and I appreciate all the hard work put into these analyses and posts. But can you see why people are a little cynical at times? For the record, I hope you guys are right. However, I see some inconsistencies. Again, no disrespect intended. Peace.

[Stormchaser]

robbbs, on Dec 12 2008, 08:32 PM, said:

With all due respect, let me see if we have this right -- If the models show mild and boring weather in the long term, they're wrong and should be ignored. If the models show cold and snow chances, buy into them. Got it. No disrespect meant here and I appreciate all the hard work put into these analyses and posts. But can you see why people are a little cynical at times? For the record, I hope you guys are right. However, I see some inconsistencies. Again, no disrespect intended. Peace.

Robbbs - with all due respect, the models had nothing to do with my forecast. I based my ideas on the overall pattern and analogs for the month of December, which continued to favor a colder than normal and stormy month.

Thus now that models are finally catching onto reality, in my humble opinion, they should be trusted. As I explaned in-depth in my posts and the winter outlook, a -EPO, -AO pattern is not a warm one for the Northeast, and the analogs lends even further support to the notion that the "blowtorch" expectations for DEC 15-30 were out to lunch IMO.

So the mild modelling was being discounted because it didn't fit with the pattern from my point of view. Simple as that -- I don't buy it.

I know we've been battling it out recent weeks w/ these ideas but again I respect your opinion highly and you could still be correct.

[robbbs]

Stormchaser, on Dec 13 2008, 02:52 AM, said:

Robbbs - with all due respect, the models had nothing to do with my forecast. I based my ideas on the overall pattern and analogs for the month of December, which continued to favor a colder than normal and stormy month.

Thus now that models are finally catching onto reality, in my humble opinion, they should be trusted. As I explaned in-depth in my posts and the winter outlook, a -EPO, -AO pattern is not a warm one for the Northeast, and the analogs lends even further support to the notion that the "blowtorch" expectations for DEC 15-30 were out to lunch IMO.

So the mild modelling was being discounted because it didn't fit with the pattern from my point of view. Simple as that -- I don't buy it.

I know we've been battling it out recent weeks w/ these ideas but again I respect your opinion highly and you could still be correct.

Storm -- There's the inconsistency. If the models confirm your thoughts they should be trusted. If not, don't trust them? Will your opinion be any different regarding the models if the Euro shows something entirely different on tomorrow's runs? Again, I'm very much hoping you're correct on all this. Just voicing an opinion, more as a thinking exercise than final outcome.

[Stormchaser]

robbbs, on Dec 12 2008, 09:19 PM, said:

Storm -- There's the inconsistency. If the models confirm your thoughts they should be trusted. If not, don't trust them? Will your opinion be any different regarding the models if the Euro shows something entirely different on tomorrow's runs? Again, I'm very much hoping you're correct on all this. Just voicing an opinion, more as a thinking exercise than final outcome.

Robbbs,

We both know the models have been about as useless as a shovel in a rainstorm past Day 5-6. Hence why I'm focusing my attention on pattern recognition and analogs rather than waffling with the daily model extremes. It hasn't let me down for long while now, so I'll continue on that path.

As for the models runs -- my opinion on the pattern won't change if the Euro depicts a wretched pattern past day 5. I think the model runs that are indicating a cooler solution should be trusted more than the alternative, based upon reasons mentioned many times.

Look - this is no different than your position. You've disagreed with the colder model runs because they didn't fit your idea of the pattern evolution, but then mentioned a model run if it illustrated warmth. Same goes with me.

Until the models show some sort of day to day consistency -- I'm placing my faith in pattern recognition not LR model data.

Hopefully this clears some things up.

[robbbs]

Stormchaser, on Dec 13 2008, 03:31 AM, said:

Robbbs,

We both know the models have been about as useless as a shovel in a rainstorm past Day 5-6. Hence why I'm focusing my attention on pattern recognition and analogs rather than waffling with the daily model extremes. It hasn't let me down for long while now, so I'll continue on that path.

As for the models runs -- my opinion on the pattern won't change if the Euro depicts a wretched pattern past day 5. I think the model runs that are indicating a cooler solution should be trusted more than the alternative, based upon reasons mentioned many times.

Look - this is no different than your position. You've disagreed with the colder model runs because they didn't fit your idea of the pattern evolution, but then mentioned a model run if it illustrated warmth. Same goes with me.

Until the models show some sort of day to day consistency -- I'm placing my faith in pattern recognition not LR model data.

Hopefully this clears some things up.

Storm -- Ok, it's a win/win for me as I want to see some real winter. If most of the rest of the month is non-eventful, I win. If you win, I win.

[Stormchaser]

robbbs, on Dec 12 2008, 09:37 PM, said:

Storm -- Ok, it's a win/win for me as I want to see some real winter. If most of the rest of the month is non-eventful, I win. If you win, I win.

Phew, you're a tough bargainer Robbbs, but that sounds good to me.

[icehater]

I have no faith in any of the over-running events this week being south of us. I'm fully expecting them all to run through the Ohio valley and be on top of us or be north of us, keeping us on the warmer side. After that it may be possible to push that SE ridge further SE and maybe Christmas week will get interesting but I'm not holding my breadth for that at this point as I can easily see that getting delayed iinto January. I've never had any hope for snow before December 20th and I see no reason to change that feeling at this point. I've been holding out hope for the last third of the month for awhile now but I'm not buying into it just yet.

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on Dec 12 2008, 08:52 PM, said:

Robbbs - with all due respect, the models had nothing to do with my forecast. I based my ideas on the overall pattern and analogs for the month of December, which continued to favor a colder than normal and stormy month.

Thus now that models are finally catching onto reality, in my humble opinion, they should be trusted. As I explaned in-depth in my posts and the winter outlook, a -EPO, -AO pattern is not a warm one for the Northeast, and the analogs lends even further support to the notion that the "blowtorch" expectations for DEC 15-30 were out to lunch IMO.

So the mild modelling was being discounted because it didn't fit with the pattern from my point of view. Simple as that -- I don't buy it.

I know we've been battling it out recent weeks w/ these ideas but again I respect your opinion highly and you could still be correct.

Storm,

Please don't turn into JB on us. That''s something I'd expect him to say, although he'd leave out the humble word.

[snowfreak188]

this is comical.

[ericjcrash]

Lol, whatever when everythings pointing towards a decent storm i'll get excited, sure its good models are trending colder with blocking etc. but just a day ago eveyone was moaning and groaning about how horrible it looks. No reason to believe everything wont switch around tommorrow. I'm tired of being disappointed.