No replies to this topic

[DBZ80]

Although the month is not over yet,My call of +1.5 for DEC for NYC is looking better than it did in NOV.I was not sold on a Cold DEC.despite which what looked with at the time.overwhelming evidence that it was going to do so.

My Winter forecast was based on 2 things.95 degree heat during a Heat Wave before JUNE 15th in NYC.....as well as a Tropical System making landfall on LI,as Hanna did back in SEPT.
These 2 analogs ALONE BOTH had Either COLD JANs.....the fact that they were COMBINED now makes the COLD JAN scenario.........or at the VERY,VERY WORST!!!! The COLDEST TEMPS of the winter in JAN!!!

NOW that the PAC NW as well as the rest of the WEST is getting hammered with snow and some of the coldest weather in 20 years out there....is a GOOD THING for us down the road.The NAO is as + as it gets around here right now..........let it do that for awhile..........The SE Ridge which is flexing its muscles is going to continue to do so for some time.that OK let it do its thing.Extreme cold like we are seeing in the West doesnt last long.........it is only a matter of time before it shifts East.......not right away....but in due time,it will.

The Winter of 2007-08 AND 1974-75 were Very Similar here.........8 days 32 or blow in 74-74.......6 such days Last winter.
1974-74 VERY WEAK LA NINA..2007-08 STRONG NINA.........THIS is why ENSO is not the END ALL.
The Atomosphere doesnt act similar in consecutive years..............dont listen to all o the gloom and doom blowtorch forecasts....Those who are going warm for JAN/FEB.....its like they are expecting JAN and FEB 2008 all over again!!!!

Some are saying that the atmosphere is acting like a STRONG NINA......we are pretty much at Neutral right now.I say that there are other factors in what determines a SE Ridge and this current pattern we are in.I honestly couldnt give you exactly WHAT that is....Stormchaser could explain it better.

BUT the fact that the COLD DEC for the East is probably not going to happen just makes JAN and FEB better.This is NOT last year at all...........this is NOT 1989-90...........We are going to get cold.............AND with the +QBO continuing to drop towards +5....that is going to help with the blocking needed for decent snow shots.
The fact that the NAO is very +......doesnt concern me.We are going into a long term shift.......there are going to be extremes.........WHEN a legitimate -NAO DOES develop in the next several weeks..............We are going to see such a dramatic,shocking change to bitter cold here.....it is going to take many by suprise....and its Not going to be a transient event either........it is going to be quite a lengthy event..NYC will likely see temps between 0 and +5 for lows during the coldest outbreaks.

When this all transpires in JAN........I would say sometime in the first 10 days.I have NYC as -5 for JAN.
I also had a WARM first half of FEB........and a WARM FEB overall.....My thinking is I will BUST on that idea..which I am not going to complain about.