151 replies to this topic

[lab94]

I made a thread just for this Fri- Sat chance. The Euro went bad for us but the 6Zgfs looks nice. Hell, the whole 6z run looked preety nice. around 1.80" of precip falling as snow. Only if.LOL

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.s...amp;submit.y=10

[wntrstrmwrng]

This morning Craig Allen mention a chance of snow or snow changing to a mix toward the end of the week. He didn't elaborate nor did he mention rain. Also -- sounds like Bill Evans is being very vague too but does mention the chance for snow.

[rgwp96]

coast is most likely toast for this end of the week storm.(for an all snow event)

[lab94]

rgwp96, on Dec 29 2008, 11:01 AM, said:

coast is most likely toast for this end of the week storm.

12 gfs looks a little better so far

[OrangeCountyWeather06]

rgwp96, on Dec 29 2008, 11:01 AM, said:

coast is most likely toast for this end of the week storm.

We should wait until Wednesday to scare everybody, I get it.

[rgwp96]

lab94, on Dec 29 2008, 11:07 AM, said:

12 gfs looks a little better so far

yea it looks better but there is one big thing missing that the coast needs for a big snow event. THAT BIG BLUe H.

now sure they can get some snow but I doubt it stays all snow

[lab94]

rgwp96, on Dec 29 2008, 11:10 AM, said:

yea it looks better but there is one big thing missing that the coast needs for a big snow event. THAT BIG BLUe H.

now sure they can get some snow but I doubt it stays all snow

What do you want, everything! LOL I think this might surprise. I have to take my wife out for her B-day and I think I had posted some were I thought the 2nd-4th had a chance. Dont want to bust on that .

[rgwp96]

lab94, on Dec 29 2008, 11:14 AM, said:

What do you want, everything! LOL I think this might surprise. I have to take my wife out for her B-day and I think I had posted some were I thought the 2nd-4th had a chance. Dont want to bust on that .

Our areas have a chance, I was talking about the coast. We dont need a perfect set up like they do. Heres some info on east coast storms. Read section B

http://dewx.easternu...com/Ingred.html


"B. Cold Surface Anticyclones (High Pressure Areas)


High pressure areas at the earth’s surface are generally associated with fair skies and good weather, but a strong surface high is almost always a major player in a mid-Atlantic snow storm. The key is the location of the surface high. The high's role is to provide and reinforce the cold air near the surface so that precipitation can remain as snow for all or at least most of the event, and the best location from which to do this is in eastern Canada. The high responsible for this PDII snowstorm was a monster. Notice the high pressure area in Figure 8, which is a surface map for 9:33 am Sunday the 16th. The high is centered north of Lake Ontario and is pumping cold air down the East coast all the way to the Carolinas. During the intense snowfall on Sunday morning the temperature in N DE was pretty much steady at around 12 deg F, which is unusually cold for a heavy snow event in this area.

Also note the “bulges” in the isobars east of the Appalachians. This is a signature of cold air intrusion and illustrates a phenomenon known as “cold air damming”, which is cold surface air trapped between the Appalachians and the coast. Cold air damming is almost always found with a major East Coast snow storm. This does not mean that strong coastal storms cannot form without cold air damming, but it does mean that without it, precipitation will most likely be rain or sleet on the coastal plain for much of the event. The reason for this is that without the strong high to keep pumping in the cold air, and thereby forcing the warmer moist air to flow over top of it, warmer (i.e. above freezing) air will take over and change the precipitation to rain. Shallow cold air damming with a warm (above freezing) layer above can result in significant ice storms."

[lab94]

rgwp96, on Dec 29 2008, 11:16 AM, said:

Our areas have a chance, I was talking about the coast. We dont need a perfect set up like they do. Heres some info on east coast storms. Read section B

http://dewx.easternu...com/Ingred.html

Good read.
Here is my post from the 12/24


http://www.nycmetroweather.com/forums/inde...ost&p=91003

[icehater]

rgwp96, on Dec 29 2008, 11:01 AM, said:

coast is most likely toast for this end of the week storm.(for an all snow event)

Taken literally the 12Z GFS is 6-10" of snow across a wide swath area from the central NJ coast on north.

[Stormchaser]

If the storm intensifies quickly enough the coast can be fine without a strong high to the north. Beginning to get very interested in this storm. The track almost reminds me of Dec 2000 with a flip to rain in Boston.

[lab94]

icehater, on Dec 29 2008, 11:24 AM, said:

Taken literally the 12Z GFS is 6-10" of snow across a wide swath area from the central NJ coast on north.

Ice, anythoughts on this. Seems the gfs hasnt had as big of changes as the euro has the last few runs.

storm, thooughts

[rgwp96]

Stormchaser, on Dec 29 2008, 11:27 AM, said:

If the storm intensifies quickly enough the coast can be fine without a strong high to the north. Beginning to get very interested in this storm. The track almost reminds me of Dec 2000 with a flip to rain in Boston.

we have had storms go to sleet with strong highs , Ill play the odds and say if this gfs track happened coastal folks go to sleet

[Stormchaser]

lab94, on Dec 29 2008, 11:28 AM, said:

Ice, anythoughts on this. Seems the gfs hasnt had as big of changes as the euro has the last few runs.

storm, thooughts

Lab -- the synoptics are there for a decent sized storm -- A) Greenland Block, B)50-50 low, however the north pacific set-up is wretched, which really hurts folks in the Mid-atlantic. Luckily the Northeast can be fine with only one oceanic basin in our favor -- atlantic or pacific.

The big key here is getting that primary clipper energy to transfer to the coastal over the VA capes before the warmth surges up I-95 and destroys our snow chances. Last night's run had the transfer occurring too late, thus we were mainly rain -- but the 12z GFS indicates this energy hand-off from Michigan southeastward to Virginia. So areas NJ northeast would likely be ok, taken verbatim.

Still plenty of time for trending with this storm.

[Stormchaser]

rgwp96, on Dec 29 2008, 11:33 AM, said:

we have had storms go to sleet with strong highs , Ill play the odds and say if this gfs track happened coastal folks go to sleet

I'm not disagreeing with you -- I think it's more about the track and intensity rather than high pressure. We're getting into the heart of winter now, so stale cold air should be fine even for the coast, assuming there's an intensifying coastal to our SE. If the low cuts up the Jersey shore then we're rain.

[Stormchaser]

rgwp96, on Dec 29 2008, 11:33 AM, said:

we have had storms go to sleet with strong highs , Ill play the odds and say if this gfs track happened coastal folks go to sleet

Sorry - I misunderstood you. I was just saying in general that snow can happen on the coast w/o a strong high.

I agree THIS run would NOT be all snow for the coast.

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on Dec 29 2008, 11:27 AM, said:

If the storm intensifies quickly enough the coast can be fine without a strong high to the north. Beginning to get very interested in this storm. The track almost reminds me of Dec 2000 with a flip to rain in Boston.

The Millenium storm, if I remember right, was almost all rain for Boston.

[robbbs]

Guys -- This is a weather board so we're supposed to talk weather and speculate but....this is 5 days out. Funny how everyone embraced the Euro when it showed snow and trashed the gfs because it didn't. Now the Euro is ignored and the gfs is everyone's best friend. Not being critical here but a lot of time to go and good snow storms are those that show up 3 days before on the models. Rarely this far out, although of course I hope so.

[Stormchaser]

robbbs, on Dec 29 2008, 12:30 PM, said:

Guys -- This is a weather board so we're supposed to talk weather and speculate but....this is 5 days out. Funny how everyone embraced the Euro when it showed snow and trashed the gfs because it didn't. Now the gfs is everyone's best friend. Not being critical here but a lot of time to go and good snow storms are those that show up 3 days before on the models. Rarely this far out, although of course I hope so.

Robbbs - we're discussing model output, no one's saying the GFS is their best friend. It could be dead wrong and so could the Euro. Much too early to make any definitive statements with this storm.

One thing's for sure -- at least we have something worthwhile to track.

[lab94]

robbbs, on Dec 29 2008, 12:30 PM, said:

Guys -- This is a weather board so we're supposed to talk weather and speculate but....this is 5 days out. Funny how everyone embraced the Euro when it showed snow and trashed the gfs because it didn't. Now the Euro is ignored and the gfs is everyone's best friend. Not being critical here but a lot of time to go and good snow storms are those that show up 3 days before on the models. Rarely this far out, although of course I hope so.

Come on Robbs, You know me better than that! LOL I will post what Dr No says (euro). This was a tread about the 1/3 event not just the gfs. I just started it since it was the newest model at the time

BTW you know my modo, I'll believe it when I measure it.