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Currently 27.1
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PHASING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG TO
THE DELMARVA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN PIVOT OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. AS A RESULT LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE TO THE NJ COAST THIS
MORNING...AND THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS E...JUST SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON....AND THEN TO SE OF CAPE COD BY THIS
EVENING. A QUICK NOTE...SECONDARY AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
THE DELMARVA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...FAVORING COLDER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF NAM.
DEVELOPING LLJ AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BREAK OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM W TO E THIS
MORNING.
TEMP PROFILE WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT ACROSS LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CONN...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ...AND LIKELY THE
NORTHEAST 1/3RD OF LONG ISLAND. TAKING A BLEND GFS/NAM TRACK OF
LOW...WOULD EXPECT SOME MIXING WITH RAIN FROM THE ONSET OR SHORTLY
AFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF NE NJ ZONES...SOUTHERN NYC
BOROUGHS...AND SOUTHERN HALF OF LI COUNTIES AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES S
OF THE AREA AND ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. WITH TRACK OF
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LI...WOULD ALSO EXPECT
THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS TO EVEN SEE PRECIP BRIEFLY TAPER OR
BECOME SCATTERED AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING.
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THEN SLIDES INTO THE CONN ZONES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH AND HEAVIEST SNOW
AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK...THIS ENHANCED FORCING MAY SLIDE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH
EASTERN LI AS WELL.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO NE THEN NW
AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN WITH STRONG CAA ON THE BACKSIDE...AND ALL
PRECIP TURNING BACK TO SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW AS UPPER ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SO IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL...WITH QPF AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH WITH THE
FAST MOVING SYSTEM...EXPECTING A 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CONN WITH BETTER SNOE/LIQUID RATIOS. CLOSER TO
3 TO 4 ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
SE CT WITH LONGER DURATION IN HEAVIER LIFT/QPF AXIS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SE CLOSER TO THE 6 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
HAVEN/NEW LONDON/MIDDLESEX.
1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NE NJ...NYC...WITH MIXING AND PERHAPS
A PERIOD OF DRY-SLOTTING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THESE AREAS.
HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SUFFOLK COUNTY GETTING INTO SOME
DEFORMATION BANDING...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH SHORE. NORTHEAST
SUFFOLK COUNTY ZONES WHICH BASED ON STORM TRACK SHOULD SEE LIMITED
MIXING AND WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR LONGER...SO
THINKING ACCUM OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA.
ANOTHER IMPORTANT ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES...STRONG CAA...500 HPA VORT
PASSING OVER THE REGION...AND 50-55 KT WINDS BETWEEN 850-900
HPA...THINKING ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A 1-3 HR BURST OF
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING. SO WILL PUT UP
HIGH WIND WARNING.
TO COMPOUND THIS...IF DEFORMATION BAND COMES THROUGH AS
EXPECTED...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT DURATION
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...COASTAL LOCALS WILL HAVE STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
TOP OF RAPIDLY FREEZING WATER OR SLUSH FROM THE MORNING. WITH ALL
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE WILL EXPAND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REST OF REGION BASED ON IMPACT. WILL UPGRADE
NEW LONDON/MIDDLESEX/AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES TO WINTER STORM
WARNING AND ADD IN NE SUFFOLK WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED...COMBINED WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE IN
FALLING...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
COMBINED IN WINTER STORM WARNING. WITH AN EARLY NEW YEARS EVE
COMMUTE...IMPACT WITH BE POTENTIALLY HUGE.
SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST AND DEFORMATION BAND SLIDES NE
OF AREA. HIGH WINDS WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH REDUCED
VSBY IN BLOWING SNOW...AND DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.
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