197 replies to this topic

[icehater]

Folks are pointing out this and that about local forecasters and worrying who says what for them. Bottom line is the fresh set of upper air data is being processed right now and reveals itself in the 0Z runs. So an interpretation of that data is far more crucial than what any on-air Met says this evening. Let's post in here as that data becomes available.

We are within 36-42 hours of this thing so the models will all converge soon and forecasts will get adjusted. The conservative on-air guys will probably not even adjust themselves till mid-day Friday so interpretation of the 0Z data is more important than what you'll see later tonite. If you want the gunslinger of the local Mets look to Nick Gregory. He's tracking that data to the moment he's on the air and agressively uses it.

[robbbs]

icehater, on Jan 8 2009, 11:45 PM, said:

Folks are pointing out this and that about local forecasters and worrying who says what for them. Bottom line is the fresh set of upper air data is being processed right now and reveals itself in the 0Z runs. So an interpretation of that data is far more crucial than what any on-air Met says this evening. Let's post in here as that data becomes available.

We are within 36-42 hours of this thing so the models will all converge soon and forecasts will get adjusted. The conservative on-air guys will probably not even adjust themselves till mid-day Friday so interpretation of the 0Z data is more important than what you'll see later tonite. If you want the gunslinger of the local Mets look to Nick Gregory. He's tracking that data to the moment he's on the air and agressively uses it.

Ice -- Couldn't agree more. Folks are free to post what they want. However, it's a complete waste to quote what on air mets are saying.

[winterbird04]

robbbs, on Jan 8 2009, 07:26 PM, said:

Ice -- Couldn't agree more. Folks are free to post what they want. However, it's a complete waste to quote what on air mets are saying.

The local mets on 69 Allentown said 3-6.I thimk you guys should be on tv cause you are alot better for sure.

[icehater]

0Z Nam looks further SE and colder thus far. System is more sheared with a lot of trailing energy. It's up to something.

[njblizzard]

south and colder

[njblizzard]

0z nam 42 hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_pcp_042m.gif

18z nam 48 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_pcp_048m.gif

[hens13]

njblizzard, on Jan 8 2009, 10:20 PM, said:

south and colder

Also a lot drier. This looks like a bad run for me, P-type issues weren't a concern for me anyway.

[IdolikesnowKocin]

Lets hope this is not a trend, wouldn't want this to go too south!

[ericjcrash]

IdolikesnowKocin, on Jan 8 2009, 10:23 PM, said:

Lets hope this is not a trend, wouldn't want this to go too south!

well heavest precip looks to aim dead for NYC QPF remains the same here.

[njblizzard]

its good run for us in central NJ but i dont know if this has mixing issues or not...

[ericjcrash]

njblizzard, on Jan 8 2009, 10:27 PM, said:

its good run for us in central NJ but i dont know if this has mixing issues or not...

all snow

[ericjcrash]

HR 60 looks good, good run overall I'd say. Good enhancement at hr 60.

[rgwp96]

seems a little screwed up.

[metfan4life]

0z Nam was much further south and colder. It is slower though. Good hit for NYC and maybe Philly.

[hens13]

Ruggie will be happy with this run.

[icehater]

All snow here thru 60 hours but temp is up to 31 at that point. Each Nam run is colder than earlier. This would be a big ht for central NJ as it will turn colder after 60 hours.

[njblizzard]

this is showing 24hr long storm.

[metfan4life]

The high on this run was a big stronger up north.

[Putnam]

Doesnt this shift the bullseye from Northern Dutchess to NYC now?

[njblizzard]

precip amount...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p36_066m.gif