46 replies to this topic

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

My Call: For Saturday/Saturday Night Snow Event.
Issued: Friday 1/09/09
For: The Delaware/Lehigh Valley's & The NYC Metro Areas.

Discussion:
Well Guys here we go again with another tricky call ! A very critical storm track, and some players on the field for Saturday into Sunday AM, will make this a call tough, but I'll give it my best shot !

The Storm Track:
A Low pressure system now over the Southern Plains, will move east to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley region later tonight. This low will be near Kentucky/WV, Saturday AM. Snow will spread eastward from The Ohio Valley and into our western area's during Saturday morning.

During Saturday afternoon and evening, the storm tracks across Northern VA and into Northern MD. This will allow some snow to move into the NYC Metro area by early afternoon. As the storm tracks east, and closer to the Delaware Valley, some milder air aloft will likely cause the snow to mix with and possibly change to sleet and rain, for later in the day and into the evening hours. Areas North of PHL should remain mostly snow, but some sleet will mix in over SE PA and into Central NJ.

Later Saturday Night this storm could intensify some, as it moves just off the NJ coast and then continues ENE and offshore during Sunday AM. With this track, any mixed precip would change back to some snow for areas South and East of PHL. Snow and Sleet will continue moderate at times during Saturday Night and into Early Sunday AM, for areas North and East of PHL, and into the NYC Metro area.

Other Key Players:
A couple of key players will be important with this system. First the track and strength of the H85 low will be critical for the precip types, in our transitional regions near the PHL area. The second player will be High Pressure over New England. The strength and positioning of this High Pressure system, could allow for a weak CAD signature, and help hold off any milder air aloft from working in. A 1020 Mb High is not really strong, but isn't that weak either. A slightly stronger High, and it's positioning being further south, could be a factor, so these key players are something to watch for, as we head into Saturday.

General Snowfall Amounts:
The areas which are most likely to see mainly snow, and Moderate Accumulations will be North of PHL. Areas from just North of PHL into Central NJ, and The NYC Metro areas will have sleet mixed in later Saturday Afternoon and Evening.

For The Lehigh Valley, The Poconos, and much of Northern NJ:
Most of these areas will see 4" to 8" amounts, with the higher elevations, from the Poconos into NW NJ, seeing some isolated amounts up to 10". So overall a good hit can be expected. Our friends up north are "The Lucky Dogs" once again ! Ha

For The Northern & Western Suburbs of PHL, Central NJ, NE NJ, and into NYC & Long Island:
A general 3" to 6" of snow and sleet can be expected. Isolated 6" amounts are possible over Northeast NJ, and The NYC area.

For PHL, Interior Southern NJ, and Northern DE:
This is where things get very tricky in forecasting snow amounts. This region is likely to start and end as some snow/Sleet, but will have mixing/Changeover issues that will hold down accumulations to a general: 1"- 3". A prolonged period of sleet, and rain mixed with some snow, will occur from Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours. Ouch again ! Man that hurts.

The Key Player If's I talked about earlier: The storm's exact track and the amount of milder air working in aloft, will leave this area in a transition zone, that could allow for more snow or even less. My general thinking is for 1" to 3" but if the storm should take a track 50 to 75 miles further south, these amounts could increase to say 2" to 4". But a shift further north with the storm track, then amounts could be slight less at 1"to 2" . You get the picture Right !

For Extreme and Coastal Southern NJ, and into Central DE:
A Coating to 1" can be expected as a mix of Snow and Sleet changes over to rain and sleet during Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. This precip. could change back to a brief period of snow and sleet, before ending later Saturday night.

I'll try to make a snowfall Map this evening, and add into this Writeup.
If needed, I'll make some adjustments this evening, but this is pretty much My Final Call on this storm system.

http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/

SNOWFALL MAP:
FINAL CALL:
FRIDAY 1/9/2009 @ 5:00 PM



Good Luck and Enjoy !
Ruggie

[winterbird04]

RUGGIE WEATHER, on Jan 9 2009, 10:45 AM, said:

My Call: For Saturday/Saturday Night Snow Event.
Issued: Friday 1/09/09
For: The Delaware/Lehigh Valley's & The NYC Metro Areas.

Discussion:
Well Guys here we go again with another tricky call ! A very critical storm track, and some players on the field for Saturday into Sunday AM, will make this a call tough, but I'll give it my best shot !

The Storm Track:
A Low pressure system now over the Southern Plains, will move east to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley region later tonight. This low will be near Kentucky/WV, Saturday AM. Snow will spread eastward from The Ohio Valley and into our western area's during Saturday morning.

During Saturday afternoon and evening, the storm tracks across Northern VA and into Northern MD. This will allow some snow to move into the NYC Metro area by early afternoon. As the storm tracks east, and closer to the Delaware Valley, some milder air aloft will likely cause the snow to mix with and possibly change to sleet and rain, for later in the day and into the evening hours. Areas North of PHL should remain mostly snow, but some sleet will mix in over SE PA and into Central NJ.

Later Saturday Night this storm could intensify some, as it moves just off the NJ coast and then continues ENE and offshore during Sunday AM. With this track, any mixed precip would change back to some snow for areas South and East of PHL. Snow and Sleet will continue moderate at times during Saturday Night and into Early Sunday AM, for areas North and East of PHL, and into the NYC Metro area.

Other Key Players:
A couple of key players will be important with this system. First the track and strength of the H85 low will be critical for the precip types, in our transitional regions near the PHL area. The second player will be High Pressure over New England. The strength and positioning of this High Pressure system, could allow for a weak CAD signature, and help hold off any milder air aloft from working in. A 1020 Mb High is not really strong, but isn't that weak either. A slightly stronger High, and it's positioning being further south, could be a factor, so these key players are something to watch for, as we head into Saturday.

General Snowfall Amounts:
The areas which are most likely to see mainly snow, and Moderate Accumulations will be North of PHL. Areas from just North of PHL into Central NJ, and The NYC Metro areas will have sleet mixed in later Saturday Afternoon and Evening.

For The Lehigh Valley, The Poconos, and much of Northern NJ:
Most of these areas will see 4" to 7" amounts, with the higher elevations, from the Poconos into NW NJ, seeing some isolated amounts of: 7" to 10". So overall a good hit can be expected. Our friends up north are "The Lucky Dogs" once again ! Ha

For The Northern & Western Suburbs of PHL, Central NJ, NE NJ, and into NYC & Long Island:
A general 3" to 5" of snow and sleet can be expected. Isolated 6" amounts are possible over Northeast NJ, and The NYC area.

For PHL, Interior Southern NJ, and Northern DE:
This is where things get very tricky in forecasting snow amounts. This region is likely to start and end as some snow/Sleet, but will have mixing/Changeover issues that will hold down accumulations to a general: 1"- 3". A prolonged period of sleet, and rain mixed with some snow, will occur from Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours. Ouch again ! Man that hurts.

The Key Player If's I talked about earlier: The storm's exact track and the amount of milder air working in aloft, will leave this area in a transition zone, that could allow for more snow or even less. My general thinking is for 1" to 3" but if the storm should take a track 50 to 75 miles further south, these amounts could increase to say 2" to 4". But a shift further north with the storm track, then amounts could be slight less at 1"to 2" . You get the picture Right !

For Extreme and Coastal Southern NJ, and into Central DE:
A Coating to 1" can be expected as a mix of Snow and Sleet changes over to rain and sleet during Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. This precip. could change back to a brief period of snow and sleet, before ending later Saturday night.

I'll try to make a snowfall Map this evening, and add into this Writeup.
If needed, I'll make some adjustments this evening, but this is pretty much My Final Call on this storm system.

http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/

Good Luck and Enjoy !
Ruggie

Nice write up thanks a bunch.Who cares if Eastrn gives you a hard time we like you here!

[nyrangers1022]

wut about the lower hudson valley

[KMN5150]

Great!!! Thanks for the info... hope all works out and everyone has a good "Snow" day!!

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

nyrangers1022, on Jan 9 2009, 12:20 PM, said:

wut about the lower hudson valley

A general 4" to 8"

with Isolated 8" to 10" amounts possible

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

KMN5150, on Jan 9 2009, 12:21 PM, said:

Great!!! Thanks for the info... hope all works out and everyone has a good "Snow" day!!

Well poor ole me down in SJ, pretty much gets the screws again, but what's new !
I call it SNAFU

Good Luck up North, for the fourth time.

Ruggie

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

winterbird04, on Jan 9 2009, 11:12 AM, said:

Nice write up thanks a bunch.Who cares if Eastrn gives you a hard time we like you here!

Thanks and

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

Here's the biggest problem for areas near PHL
The H85 low becomes closed and tracks across Northern PA. That's a bad thing and will cause critcal layers to warm just enough to mix and possible changeover the precip to sleet and rain. This especially South and East of PHL.

This H85 low needs to be about 50 to 75 miles further south for us to be safe in PHL/SJ.

NYC will mix with sleet, but most of this event will be snow.

[Snow15]

Ruggie,

Any idea how much Northern Middlesex County will get? and will there be any rain/sleet mixing in?

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

Snow15, on Jan 9 2009, 12:57 PM, said:

Ruggie,

Any idea how much Northern Middlesex County will get? and will there be any rain/sleet mixing in?

For The Northern & Western Suburbs of PHL, Central NJ, NE NJ, and into NYC & Long Island:
A general 3" to 5" of snow and sleet can be expected. Isolated 6" amounts are possible over Northeast NJ, and The NYC area.

[snowshoe]

RUGGIE WEATHER, on Jan 9 2009, 01:13 PM, said:

For The Northern & Western Suburbs of PHL, Central NJ, NE NJ, and into NYC & Long Island:
A general 3" to 5" of snow and sleet can be expected. Isolated 6" amounts are possible over Northeast NJ, and The NYC area.

Another great write up. I sure hope this snow stayes on the ground for a while. We still have ice all over. This will make the snow easier to stick and a good solid base.

[centraljerseyweather21]

Ruggie good forcast i think your more on target then the tv mets. I argee with 3-5 for central jersey but where do u think will be the mix line ? Im up by the parkway bridge are do you think the mix makes it till there?

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

snowshoe, on Jan 9 2009, 03:00 PM, said:

Another great write up. I sure hope this snow stayes on the ground for a while. We still have ice all over. This will make the snow easier to stick and a good solid base.

Snow, I heard earlier today on the radio that it should be on the ground for at least 2 full weeks..metro area..

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

centraljerseyweather21, on Jan 9 2009, 02:07 PM, said:

Ruggie good forcast i think your more on target then the tv mets. I argee with 3-5 for central jersey but where do u think will be the mix line ? Im up by the parkway bridge are do you think the mix makes it till there?

Thanks and Yes I think you mix with Sleet (IP)

[GameOfLove]

Great writeup as usual, Ruggie.

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

Update at 5:00 PM
Final Call

http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/

Snowfall Map: FINAL

[LongIslandWthr]

Nice call Capin' Good luck

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

LongIslandWthr, on Jan 9 2009, 05:17 PM, said:

Nice call Capin' Good luck

Thanks Man !

Did a quick snowfall map for you guys, when I got home from work.

So 3" to 6" for NYC/Much of Northern NJ, with isolated higher amounts in a few spots

4" to 8" for NW NJ into Hudson Valley and Conn.

I might get an inch or so here in SJ.

[LongIslandWthr]

RUGGIE WEATHER, on Jan 9 2009, 05:26 PM, said:

Thanks Man !

Did a quick snowfall map for you guys, when I got home from work.

So 3" to 6" for NYC/Much of Northern NJ, with isolated higher amounts in a few spots

4" to 8" for NW NJ into Hudson Valley and Conn.

I might get an inch or so here in SJ.

Its ok Rug! You wil get your chance soon enough, next week is looking interesting!

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

LongIslandWthr, on Jan 9 2009, 05:29 PM, said:

Its ok Rug! You wil get your chance soon enough, next week is looking interesting!

Yes it is bro, and I'll have more on this upcoming threat, later this weekend or early in the week.

Enjoy your snow tomorrow and tomorrow night. I'm jealous
Ruggie