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12z models

Started by snowfreak188, Jan 10 2009 09:03 AM

22 replies to this topic

#1
snowfreak188
Posted 10 January 2009 - 09:03 AM

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here is the last chance for any trends or anything going in our favor!the NGM actually looks colder and it messed you south shore guys up but keeps most of northern LI snow at 18hours and a 24 it looks to warm em up but by then the heavy precip is done,the RUC doesnt look to bad at 12hours either.12z nam is intresting rite now its opening the 850 low at 12hours but on the 6z it was closed,the 12z nam looks slightly colder hard to tell on the raleigh site.
New York Giants!

10-11 total snowfall-58.0"

09-10 total snowfall-55.5"

08-09 total snowfall-43.3"

1st flakes of 11-12 winter-October 29th(coating)
1st flakes of 10-11 winter-November 8th(no accum)
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#2
snowfreak188
Posted 10 January 2009 - 09:06 AM

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850 low stays open the whole storm this could be a big changer now?
New York Giants!

10-11 total snowfall-58.0"

09-10 total snowfall-55.5"

08-09 total snowfall-43.3"

1st flakes of 11-12 winter-October 29th(coating)
1st flakes of 10-11 winter-November 8th(no accum)
1st flakes of 09-10 winter December 5th(no accum)

#3
njblizzard
Posted 10 January 2009 - 09:29 AM

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soundings for NW? ....rgwp and lab prob never go to mix with 6z/12z runs i would think.
Posted Image-----Jan 1996 Blizzard

#4
robbbs
Posted 10 January 2009 - 09:35 AM

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View Postnjblizzard, on Jan 10 2009, 02:29 PM, said:

soundings for NW? ....rgwp and lab prob never go to mix with 6z/12z runs i would think.

The 12z nam does have an above freezing layer for my area but not by very much.
West Milford NJ

#5
weatherbowl
Posted 10 January 2009 - 09:38 AM

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Another nowcast event for our area to see who gets what and how much of what. Meteorologists around here, earn their money.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#6
metfan4life
Posted 10 January 2009 - 10:35 AM

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12z GFS came in south.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_006l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_012l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_018l.gif
LETS GO METS

#7
ericjcrash
Posted 10 January 2009 - 10:37 AM

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View Postmetfan4life, on Jan 10 2009, 10:35 AM, said:

12z GFS came in south.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_006l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_012l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_018l.gif


Hmm talk about topsy turvy, Damn. The low looks roughly 20 miles south.

#8
LongIslandWthr
Posted 10 January 2009 - 10:37 AM

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View Postmetfan4life, on Jan 10 2009, 10:35 AM, said:

12z GFS came in south.


Take about a tough forecast - Guess its now-cast time

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NWS Skywarn Spotter
Brookhaven, Long Island

#9
David-LI
Posted 10 January 2009 - 10:37 AM

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View Postmetfan4life, on Jan 10 2009, 03:35 PM, said:

12z GFS came in south.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_006l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_012l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_018l.gif


what time is it in NY when its 06 utc? 1 am?

#10
rgwp96
Posted 10 January 2009 - 10:41 AM

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guys, better to just watch radar trends now .
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#11
NittanyLion
Posted 10 January 2009 - 10:50 AM

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View PostDavid-LI, on Jan 10 2009, 10:37 AM, said:

what time is it in NY when its 06 utc? 1 am?

Yeah 5 hours difference
Mike
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South Burlington, VT
Elevation: 332 ft
Snowfall 2011-2012: 37.7"

Jonesville, VT
Elevation: 323 ft
Snowfall 2011-2012: 59.5"

The views expressed in this post are solely mine and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Weather Service.

#12
njblizzard
Posted 10 January 2009 - 10:51 AM

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Does radar show what models has been showing since yesterday 12z runs? Just looking for 30 miles south shift in radar.
Posted Image-----Jan 1996 Blizzard

#13
metfan4life
Posted 10 January 2009 - 11:34 AM

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Anybody ready for the cold next week? Plus, the models are showing a clipper when the cold arrives. The ratios would be big with that clipper if it happened.
LETS GO METS

#14
icehater
Posted 10 January 2009 - 11:45 AM

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View Postnjblizzard, on Jan 10 2009, 10:51 AM, said:

Does radar show what models has been showing since yesterday 12z runs? Just looking for 30 miles south shift in radar.

State College radar shows mix line pretty far north in Pa and looks very close to last nights models. Then that heavier southern rain area is the qpf that is the main storm and it gets in here this evening probably about the same time the mid level warming kicks in. Until then, and unless you are far north the precip today is nuisance precip.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vaca...eMapLayer=radar

Monday bears watching. If we could ever get a neg tilt with this you'd have a Miller A monster storm with this baby. Naturally models will not move this thing NW. This is not getting much discussion but if it ever surprised it'd be Mec to Hecs potential.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...p072084_s.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...f072084_s.shtml
Monmouth county NJ

#15
benfica356
Posted 10 January 2009 - 11:47 AM

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View Posticehater, on Jan 10 2009, 11:45 AM, said:

State College radar shows mix line pretty far north in Pa and looks very close to last nights models. Then that heavier southern rain area is the qpf that is the main storm and it gets in here this evening probably about the same time the mid level warming kicks in. Until then, and unless you are far north the precip today is nuisance precip.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vaca...eMapLayer=radar

Monday bears watching. If we could ever get a neg tilt with this you'd have a Miller A monster storm with this baby. Naturally models will not move this thing NW. This is not getting much discussion but if it ever surprised it'd be Mec to Hecs potential.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...p072084_s.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...f072084_s.shtml
wow ice. Hope it happens.

#16
jfio93
Posted 10 January 2009 - 12:22 PM

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View Posticehater, on Jan 10 2009, 11:45 AM, said:

State College radar shows mix line pretty far north in Pa and looks very close to last nights models. Then that heavier southern rain area is the qpf that is the main storm and it gets in here this evening probably about the same time the mid level warming kicks in. Until then, and unless you are far north the precip today is nuisance precip.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vaca...eMapLayer=radar

Monday bears watching. If we could ever get a neg tilt with this you'd have a Miller A monster storm with this baby. Naturally models will not move this thing NW. This is not getting much discussion but if it ever surprised it'd be Mec to Hecs potential.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...p072084_s.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...f072084_s.shtml
\
r the chances good
ive been to the pearly gates they sent me back the good die young i aint eligible for that".- 50 cent
i hate a liar more then a i hate a thief, a thief is only after my salary a liar is after my reality- 50 cent
09-10 Winter Stats

12-19/12-20-8 inches
1/2- 1/31- 4 inches
2/10- 14 inch
2/16-3 inches
2/25-2/26-21 inches

total-52 inches

#17
icehater
Posted 10 January 2009 - 12:27 PM

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View Postjfio93, on Jan 10 2009, 12:22 PM, said:

\
r the chances good


No. But it's a very interesting map. A phase with the lakes system and arctic front can't be ruled out and would result in a large vigorous storm that would move slowly up the coast. It'd be a huge storm if that happened.
Monmouth county NJ

#18
njblizzard
Posted 10 January 2009 - 12:29 PM

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ice, it will be funny that we get hammered with that storm that nobody followed for week....
Posted Image-----Jan 1996 Blizzard

#19
icehater
Posted 10 January 2009 - 12:30 PM

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View Postnjblizzard, on Jan 10 2009, 12:29 PM, said:

ice, it will be funny that we get hammered with that storm that nobody followed for week....

NYC's phenomenal December 1947 storm evolved in that manner.
Monmouth county NJ

#20
jfio93
Posted 10 January 2009 - 12:31 PM

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View Posticehater, on Jan 10 2009, 12:27 PM, said:

No. But it's a very interesting map. A phase with the lakes system and arctic front can't be ruled out and would result in a large vigorous storm that would move slowly up the coast. It'd be a huge storm if that happened.
darn a huge storm with all snow no mixing rite
ive been to the pearly gates they sent me back the good die young i aint eligible for that".- 50 cent
i hate a liar more then a i hate a thief, a thief is only after my salary a liar is after my reality- 50 cent
09-10 Winter Stats

12-19/12-20-8 inches
1/2- 1/31- 4 inches
2/10- 14 inch
2/16-3 inches
2/25-2/26-21 inches

total-52 inches
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