9 replies to this topic

[mrain01]

Is it too early to start using the same approach for February?

Maybe after Weds' event?

There is some suggestion of a warming trend after Feb 4. Will this hold through Feb?

[Stormchaser]

Will probably write something up after the mid week storm. As far as pattern progression I like how January turned out w/ my ideas on the mean trough positioned over the NE/G Lakes w/ below normal temperatures throughout. Most Northeast stations are -2 to -5 so far for the month of January. Snowfall has been decent for NYC northward and hopefully after this week we're all above norm for the month

Heading into February we should have a complete reversal in the overall paradigm as the favorable north pacific blocking breaks downs -- yielding a largely +EPO/-PNA couplet which is initially favorable for west coast troughiness and east coast ridge. However the good news is the polar field indices and the Atlantic may finally trend on our side for Feb - I may have noted this before but we've seen some impressive stratospheric warming over the polar regions since JAN 20, and this is often a teleconnector for a rapid turn negative of the AO thus subsequent blocking in the arctic. But that process takes about 1-2 weeks to complete itself. Plus we'll need the mechanism to drive the cold air southward into the U.S.

So the pattern's different but I actually expect similar progression to January's temp departures -- we start off near to slightly above normal the first 7-8 days, before turning colder by early/mid month and persisting for the entirety of February. I don't think we'll be as cold as January with respect to normals but still below normal for February. As for snowfall there will be good potential IF we can get the -NAO to indeed form. -NAO Februarys are notorious for decent snows. BUT IF IT FAILS, it's probably a back and forth cold/warm month like December, not many snow chances.

If we do end up below normal for Feb, which is my gut instinct right now, that'd be a pretty good winter temp wise -- near normal Dec, below normal Jan and Feb. Let's hope we get the snow to show for it.

[winterbird04]

mrain01, on Jan 26 2009, 06:15 AM, said:

Is it too early to start using the same approach for February?

Maybe after Weds' event?

There is some suggestion of a warming trend after Feb 4. Will this hold through Feb?

You may want to listen to him he usually knows what he is talking about,and why would it be to early its almost Feb at least the last time i looked.

[metfan4life]

Looks like the warmth is starting to get pushed back on the models.

[mrain01]

winterbird04, on Jan 26 2009, 04:47 PM, said:

You may want to listen to him he usually knows what he is talking about,and why would it be to early its almost Feb at least the last time i looked.

I have every intention of listening to him. Why wouldn't I? Storm is the best.

The last time I asked this kind of question I was chastised because I wasn't "focused" on the upcoming event.

So I am reluctant to ask anything. This is a very touchy board. Some are friendly, some are not. And there are provincial-types who enjoy knocking the casual visitor. I simply was trying not to offend anybody.

I have stopped asking too many questions because I have been slapped down on several occasions.

[Stormchaser]

mrain01, on Jan 26 2009, 04:31 PM, said:

I have every intention of listening to him. Why wouldn't I? Storm is the best.

The last time I asked this kind of question I was chastised because I wasn't "focused" on the upcoming event.

So I am reluctant to ask anything. This is a very touchy board. Some are friendly, some are not. And there are provincial-types who enjoy knocking the casual visitor. I simply was trying not to offend anybody.

I have stopped asking too many questions because I have been slapped down on several occasions.

Mrrain - thanks for the kind words. You can ask as many questions as you want..I'd be happy to answer them...

[winterbird04]

mrain01, on Jan 26 2009, 04:31 PM, said:

I have every intention of listening to him. Why wouldn't I? Storm is the best.

The last time I asked this kind of question I was chastised because I wasn't "focused" on the upcoming event.

So I am reluctant to ask anything. This is a very touchy board. Some are friendly, some are not. And there are provincial-types who enjoy knocking the casual visitor. I simply was trying not to offend anybody.

I have stopped asking too many questions because I have been slapped down on several occasions.

I completely understand !!!!

[vascudave]

how bout march???

[Stormchaser]

vascudave, on Jan 26 2009, 07:07 PM, said:

how bout march???

In like a lion out like a lamb.

[LongIslandWthr]

NAO to go Negative for start of Feb?