14 replies to this topic

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

Discussion: Saturday 2/7/2009
For: The Delaware Valley/ Mid-Atlantic & NE.
Mid-Range Call: Feb 14th - 28th.

Before I get started with my Mid-Range Call, let me say for those folks who enjoy Milder weather, You'll really like this upcoming week. Overall look for Above normal temperatures with a one week thaw. For The Del.Valley and Northern M/A States, temps will be mainly in the Upper 40's to near 60. The warmest day looks to be on Wednesday followed by some Rain for Thursday. After this potent storm passes to our NW later this week, the big changes begin as a strong cold front moves through on Thursday PM. This is the start of a colder, and more stormy pattern around the 13th & 14th (Next Weekend).

February 14th through 22nd:
A Colder and Snowy period for the M/A and NE.

During this time frame I expect a colder and very stormy period for the M/A States and NE. We start out with a weak split flow and more suppressed pattern. But, a developing NEG NAO, and 50/50 Low will become more established, and also become the main players as we progress into this week. This will help supply the cold air and eventually develop a trough in the east.

The first system will effect the Northern M/A States with a snow threat on the 14th and 15th. A Storm system and energy will be ejected eastward from a trough in the SW States. The flow will become zonal and flattened from the Southern Rockies and eastward to the M/A Coast. This will allow this storm to track further south, across the Tennessee Valley to near the VA coast next weekend. Colder air will be in place, thanks to a developing 50/50 low and the Northern branch close by, keeping the southern branch suppressed. (No Ridging or SE Ridge expected)

With all this being said, many parts of the M/A States, including the I-95 Corridor from DCA to PHL, will have a good chance for some snow with this first storm. It's too early to say how much, but I do think accumulating snow is likely. This will be the first of several storms during this time frame.

A more significant and widespread snow threat comes between February 17th- 19th . This will include much of the M/A States, and parts of Southern New England. The GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will be opened for business, as a continued on slot of storms, are ejected east from the SW trough, and southern Branch. Plenty of moisture will feed into these storms as move eastward from the Southern Rockies and approach the M/A Coast.

A Classic Miller A storm is possible, but a Southern style Miller B type setup is most likely to develop over the lower M/A near VA.

I expect 2 or 3 snow events during this time frame. Once again the biggest snow threat comes between the 17th and 19th, with a possible SECS/MECS. I'll also mention the Interior SE States (North Carolina) will be game for some snow as well.

February 23rd through 28th: (Closing out the month)
Continued Cold with more Clipper type systems.

During this time I expect a continued cold and active pattern in the east. The Northern branch and Eastern trough will become more dominant. Clipper type systems and shots of cold air with some snow will be the rule for the Northern M/A and Northeast.

My Call: Feb 14th - 28th
For the M/A States and The Northeast.

Overall I expect Below normal temps to close out the month. Most areas of the M/A and Northeast will finish -1 to -3 (Below normal). I'm forecasting "Above Normal Snowfall" in New England, and "Much Above Normal Snowfall" over the M/A States.

Enjoy It !
http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/

Take Care,
Ruggie

[giants1156]

works for me.

[weatherbowl]

Looks like the January thaw is in February this year.

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

weatherbowl, on Feb 8 2009, 10:38 AM, said:

Looks like the January thaw is in February this year.

It sure is ! I'm 58.1 and I still have some snow on the ground. It'll be gone after today and the continued thaw lasts for 1 week.

Then it's ON.

[bm55]

sounds good,ruggie

[Stormchaser]

Good post; Completely agree Ruggie. I wrote something very similar in my 'January and February pattern ideas' thread.

Things start getting interesting after the Thursday Lakes cutter, which will become our 50-50 low near Newfoundland, thereby pumping heights in Greenland and forcing the PV southward. This in turn holds the cold over the Northeast as our sub tropical jet energy ejects eastward to the Mid atlantic states by Saturday/Sunday.

Models seem to be having difficulties deciphering which threat is the bigger/more important player -- 2/14-15, or 2/17. Hopefully we'll iron out some of these problems in the next couple days. Overall it looks like an exciting PD weekend ahead.

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on Feb 8 2009, 11:07 AM, said:

Good post; Completely agree Ruggie. I wrote something very similar in my 'January and February pattern ideas' thread.

Things start getting interesting after the Thursday Lakes cutter, which will become our 50-50 low near Newfoundland, thereby pumping heights in Greenland and forcing the PV southward. This in turn holds the cold over the Northeast as our sub tropical jet energy ejects eastward to the Mid atlantic states by Saturday/Sunday.

Models seem to be having difficulties deciphering which threat is the bigger/more important player -- 2/14-15, or 2/17. Hopefully we'll iron out some of these problems in the next couple days. Overall it looks like an exciting PD weekend ahead.

The only real cause for concern in the upcoming pattern is suppression. I wouldn't take any of the future storm tracks seriously until we are a lot closer to the event and you need to keep in mind that in a pattern like this the GFS will have a more severe SE bias than it normally has.

[snowfreak188]

ice the 12Z shows what we fear really supressed.

[metfan4life]

snowfreak188, on Feb 8 2009, 11:29 AM, said:

ice the 12Z shows what we fear really supressed.

And warm too. The Euro is much colder than the GFS. I think the GFS is up to its usual games once again.

[icehater]

This winter goes to an A+++++ if the 228 hour GFS verifies.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_228l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_276l.gif

[metfan4life]

icehater, on Feb 8 2009, 11:38 AM, said:

This winter goes to an A+++++ if the 228 hour GFS verifies.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_228l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_276l.gif

What a beautiful storm if this would happen. Although the surface temps are warm but who cares this far out.

[Stormchaser]

Ice,

Completely agree. This is not a Lakes cutter pattern ala December since we have a strongly negative AO emerging in conjunction w/ a -NAO. These two factors in themselves teleconnect to higher than normal pressures across southern Canada thus more southern tracking storms.

As we've discussed I'd rather take my chances with a storm progressing from the TN valley to the NC coast than a latitudinal low tracking from Chicago to the Jersey shore. The latter hardly ever works out for folks NYC south.

[icehater]

metfan4life, on Feb 8 2009, 11:39 AM, said:

What a beautiful storm if this would happen. Although the surface temps are warm but who cares this far out.

Surface temps look plenty cold to me and you probably go to the low 20's when the storm gets offshore and throws another .75-1" QPF over us. This would be a 10:1 ratio storm that ends with an additional inch of QPF at 15-20:1. Dream on, but it's quite possible in the developing pattern. Heck this would put down 2' of snow in one shot in central NJ as it stands - verbatim. Take it with a grain of salt but be happy that we have a pattern upcoming that allows this chance.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_228l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_240l.gif

[snowfreak188]

temps wont be a problem in any of those storms to our south guys,they are all bombing as soon as they hit the coast and will make there own cold air as usual.NEVER look at 2Ms this far out met i thought you knew better then that?

[RUGGIE WEATHER]

Stormchaser, on Feb 8 2009, 11:07 AM, said:

Good post; Completely agree Ruggie. I wrote something very similar in my 'January and February pattern ideas' thread.

Things start getting interesting after the Thursday Lakes cutter, which will become our 50-50 low near Newfoundland, thereby pumping heights in Greenland and forcing the PV southward. This in turn holds the cold over the Northeast as our sub tropical jet energy ejects eastward to the Mid atlantic states by Saturday/Sunday.

Models seem to be having difficulties deciphering which threat is the bigger/more important player -- 2/14-15, or 2/17. Hopefully we'll iron out some of these problems in the next couple days. Overall it looks like an exciting PD weekend ahead.

Thanks Storm and also everyone else.

Watch the models over the next several days. People will go nuts and emotions will get testy as we are in a Full Moon now. LOL

Things will go south, north, to warm, almost, and just right, etc, etc.
Todays 12z runs have changes some on both the Euro and GFS, I say no big deal, tomorrow on Tuesday We'll all be watching the flip flopping madness begin. I say by Wednesday things will become the most clear on where we're going with all this. The SW Trough and energy is really something to watch. If it becomes too amplified and sits there to long, then we could be in trouble. But I think everyone should take a break and enjoy the February thaw, then we get more serious towards midweek of where we go with the upcoming snow threats.

Take Care
Ruggie