321 replies to this topic

[njblizzard]

well, as of Feb 12th.

Euro is showing snow storm from DC to Boston.

GFS is showing rain storm and tracking inland....


so, please pin this thread and we can come back next week to see who is the king....

[robbbs]

njblizzard, on Feb 12 2009, 12:33 PM, said:

well, as of Feb 12th.

Euro is showing snow storm from DC to Boston.

GFS is showing rain storm and tracking inland....


so, please pin this thread and we can come back next week to see who is the king....

There is no king. They've both been terrible this winter.

[snowfreak188]

already have a thread on this.

[njblizzard]

robbbs, on Feb 12 2009, 07:44 AM, said:

There is no king. They've both been terrible this winter.

Exactly, but there is alot of ppl think euro as king....some here buy most on other boards....

[metfan4life]

njblizzard, on Feb 12 2009, 08:10 AM, said:

Exactly, but there is alot of ppl think euro as king....some here buy most on other boards....

It is the best model out of all of them but it has flipped more this year than any other year.

[robbbs]

metfan4life, on Feb 12 2009, 02:04 PM, said:

It is the best model out of all of them but it has flipped more this year than any other year.

Not true. Don't fall for the weenie hype on Eastern. The stats don't show that at all. People have to pay for the Euro and, therefore, then try to justify the cost by saying it's a superior model. It's not.

[njblizzard]

Metfan, If euro is best then why flip flop every run like other models.In my book best model should show consistenty, which we all know has been problem for all models this year.let's see what they show today.

[metfan4life]

robbbs, on Feb 12 2009, 09:18 AM, said:

Not true. Don't fall for the weenie hype on Eastern. The stats don't show that at all. People have to pay for the Euro and, therefore, then try to justify the cost by saying it's a superior model. It's not.

Yea but it is more right than wrong most of the time.

[snowfreak188]

if you can find a model BETTER then the euro you can say that it is not king but there isnt a model that is better and stats actually do show the euro is better then the GFS and all them robbbs there has been a few polls about that.

[snowfreak188]

njblizzard, on Feb 12 2009, 09:40 AM, said:

Metfan, If euro is best then why flip flop every run like other models.In my book best model should show consistenty, which we all know has been problem for all models this year.let's see what they show today.

its out of its locking range it should be entering it today unless it pushes it back and if it does that we will get a rain storm on the coast all the way to boston.

[icehater]

snowfreak188, on Feb 12 2009, 10:45 AM, said:

its out of its locking range it should be entering it today unless it pushes it back and if it does that we will get a rain storm on the coast all the way to boston.

Snowfreak,

It has no locking range. That is a compleate Eastern weather board myth. Much of the Euro's myth is owed to the blizzard of 96 as it saw the blizzard well before the GFS did in the MA and especialy in the area from Philly to Conneticut. The GFS until the day before had nothing but flurries for us. So the Euro is king myth was born out of that storm. If what you think was true than why has the Euro constantly changed inside it's "supposed" lock-in period, not only this year but in years past. Doesn't a lock mean no more change. You are reading too much Eastern and giving the posters there far too much credit. I never thought about it until Robbbs noted it but the euro is king BS should be changed to cash is king. The payment for the euro data causes folks to justify it as a great model when in fact it's not all that much better than the GFS. There are a number of Mets who have no funding for it hence they don't use it. If something is as great as you think then you can't do without it. But so many Mets ignore it - thus it's greatness can't be what you think it is. I also love how it gives 5-6 different solutions during that "lock-in" period and then folks pick the one that was closest to verification and say how great the Euro is because it led all other models. Tell you what - you can easily pick the 5 that are wrong and prove how lousy it is too and that's what folks do with the GFS. Why - because it costs them nothing in the wallet. Your young - you'll learn.

I do think the Euro is better than the GFS in a split flow pattern and a favorable Atlantic pattern, so I'd bank on it more. Why is that the case. Probably because the Euro's main focus is European weather, which is Atlantic dominated, so its methodology is much more modelled for the Atlantic.

[snowfreak188]

icehater, on Feb 12 2009, 11:11 AM, said:

Snowfreak,

It has no locking range. That is a compleate Eastern weather board myth. Much of the Euro's myth is owed to the blizzard of 96 as it saw the blizzard well befire the GFS did in the MA and especialy in the area from Philly to Conneticut. The GFs until the day before had nothing but flurries for us. So the Euro is king myth was born out of that storm. If what you think were true than why has the Euro constantly changed inside it's "supposed" lock-in period. Doesn't a lock mean no0 more change. you are reading too much into Eastern and giving the posters there credit. I never thought about it until Robbbs noted it but the euro is king BS should be changed to cash is king. . The payment for the euro data causes folks to justify it as a great model wnhen in fact it's not all that much better than the GFS. I love how it gives 5-6 different solutions during that "lock-in" period and then folks pick one of them and say how great the Euro is. Tell you what - you can easily pick the 5 that are wrong and prove how lousy it is too and that's what folks do with the GFS. Why - because it costs them nothing in the wallet. Your young - you'll learn.

its locked this weekends storm and the GFS followed and so is every other model and its locked pretty much monday/tuesdays storm with all other models following the euro,not eastern talk at all its the truth.now the GFS takes the low into canada and is gonna blowtorch us?come on the gfs is one crappy model.

[snowfreak188]

this is funny the GFS is phasing the hudson bay low with our low.

[snowfreak188]

its raining in buffalo at 156 what a joke!

[metfan4life]

snowfreak188, on Feb 12 2009, 11:20 AM, said:

its raining in buffalo at 156 what a joke!

Everyone sees rain except for Maine and Northern Vermont. Terrible run .

[icehater]

snowfreak188, on Feb 12 2009, 11:16 AM, said:

its locked this weekends storm and the GFS followed and so is every other model and its locked pretty much monday/tuesdays storm with all other models following the euro,not eastern talk at all its the truth.now the GFS takes the low into canada and is gonna blowtorch us?come on the gfs is one crappy model.

I can't even decipher what you are saying. But I can certainly infer that you are drunk on the Euro, that's for sure. You haven't even looked at any detail. Everything you point to or say is verbatim Eastern weenieism.

Yesterday's Euro run had 30" of snow for DC. How's that working out. Then it went to rain for DC, snow to rain for us and Boston and now it's back to snow for us, but close. So the euro already can't lose. If it's a blizzard folks will point to yesterdays 0Z. If it rains they will point to yesterdays 12Z. And if it's a mix with a close call in NY to Boston they'll pick todays 0Z. Not to mention the Euro has constantly changed the timing of the storm while making all these changes. Of course the euro is king - it's already got all bases covered for you weenies. You see the Euro doesn't find the solution for you. The solution finds one of the 10 different Euro runs that was the most accurate, and you guys drink the kool-aid.


Here's some of that great consistency on the euro:

Yesterday 0Z:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1100!!/

Yesterday 12Z:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1112!!/

Today 0Z;

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1200!!/

[rgwp96]

snowfreak188, on Feb 12 2009, 11:20 AM, said:

its raining in buffalo at 156 what a joke!

so why is it wrong? It didnt happen yet, the euro by the way shows me for 12-18, so im holding it to you

[snowfreak188]

GFS ensembles say the OP is partying way to hard and should just sit down!there east of the euro.

[snowfreak188]

precip maps 12z and 00z suggest mostly snow for NYC and a period of mix with no rain on the 12z.

[metfan4life]

snowfreak188, on Feb 12 2009, 12:04 PM, said:

GFS ensembles say the OP is partying way to hard and should just sit down!there east of the euro.

12z GFS ensemble mean

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gf...emblep12156.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gf...emblep12168.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gf...emblep12180.gif