199 replies to this topic

[Snow15]

Hey Guys

The weekend storm is looking good as of right now, but i just made this thread so everyone can post their thoughts in here....

[icehater]

Snow15, on Feb 17 2009, 07:24 PM, said:

Hey Guys

The weekend clipper is looking good as of right now, but i just made this thread so everyone can post their thoughts in here....

The weekend clipper looks awful and is far north and is not the source of the potential weekend snow . The weekend storm is based on a trailing deep south short-wave that rolls under the base of the front and then comes NE along it. The process slows the fronts east movement as strong SW winds develop in the atlantic causing the whole front to go neg tilt which then allows the storm to move up the east coast as it quickly intensifes. This is very far removed from clipper or clipper re-development. It looks strange in this day and age because we haven't had patterns in years that favor this. But in reality this is how NYC got some of its big storms in the 60's and 70's when systems like the models are advertising were a lot more common. In fact back then many storms then ran out to sea south of us. If the tilt goes too negative you could even have precip issues but this is a lot more likely in eastern New England then here.

So in reality the Clipper title of this thread is really a bad mis-representation of the weekend storm potential.

[snowshoe]

Even my local forcast for it looks terrible. Temps above freezing. I would not be suprised to see more rain or more of a mix then anything

Wednesday: A chance of snow before noon, then rain and snow. High near 36. Calm wind becoming south between 8 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 30. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and noon, then a chance of rain showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a west wind 7 to 10 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

[icehater]

snowshoe, on Feb 17 2009, 07:51 PM, said:

Even my local forcast for it looks terrible. Temps above freezing. I would not be suprised to see more rain or more of a mix then anything

Wednesday: A chance of snow before noon, then rain and snow. High near 36. Calm wind becoming south between 8 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 30. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and noon, then a chance of rain showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a west wind 7 to 10 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Snowshoe - but that's not the storm that is being talked about here and yes you will likely get a more rainy solution for this next storm. Those point and click forecasts are useless by the way.

[yankee2274]

Here is an NOOA discussion about the possible Sunday-Monday system. Sounds like potential for significant storm, but models in no agreement, which is just SHOCKING.

WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 12
UTC OPERATIONAL ECMWF...ALONG WITH THE 12 UTC CMC...SHOWS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR LATER ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE STORM TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE POLAR VORTEX SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY. THESE TWO NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PHASE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...DEVELOPING A
DEEP STORM OFF THE VA COAST...WHICH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD. IF THIS STORM WERE TO DEVELOP...A SOLID SNOW EVENT
WOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AGAIN...THE GFS...AS WELL AS MOST 12 UTC MEMBERS OF THE GEFS...DO
NOT SHOW THE SOLUTION OCCURRING...AS IT LACKS THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND JUST CUTOFFS THE ORIGINAL WEAKER SAT/SUN
SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA
AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STAYS WELL EAST OF THE REGION. FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR THE SUN/MON TIME PERIOD FOR
-SN...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE HWO UNTIL SUBSEQUENT RUNS
HELP DEVELOP FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

[icehater]

yankee2274, on Feb 17 2009, 08:09 PM, said:

Here is an NOOA discussion about the possible Sunday-Monday system. Sounds like potential for significant storm, but models in no agreement, which is just SHOCKING.

WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 12
UTC OPERATIONAL ECMWF...ALONG WITH THE 12 UTC CMC...SHOWS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR LATER ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE STORM TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE POLAR VORTEX SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY. THESE TWO NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PHASE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...DEVELOPING A
DEEP STORM OFF THE VA COAST...WHICH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD. IF THIS STORM WERE TO DEVELOP...A SOLID SNOW EVENT
WOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AGAIN...THE GFS...AS WELL AS MOST 12 UTC MEMBERS OF THE GEFS...DO
NOT SHOW THE SOLUTION OCCURRING...AS IT LACKS THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND JUST CUTOFFS THE ORIGINAL WEAKER SAT/SUN
SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA
AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STAYS WELL EAST OF THE REGION. FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR THE SUN/MON TIME PERIOD FOR
-SN...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE HWO UNTIL SUBSEQUENT RUNS
HELP DEVELOP FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

Notice that there is no mention of clipper or clipper redevelopment in that. We really need the title of this thread changed as it's pretty embarrassing as a weather board title if it's intent is to discuss major storm potential. The weekend event as depicted by the models is really a Miller A event. What will be key on future runs is to see if that southern shortwave energy really splits apart from the front. The GFS has it but the GFS tends to be the most progressive model, and has shown that all winter so I'd expect that it won't lead here if a snowy solution is to verify. Again take each run with a grain of salt until we are within 48 hours of the evnt but if that southern storm continues to form on each run in a split flow pattern then yes we do have a shot and like I noted it is how many past big storms, particularly 8-12" storms, hit NYC. It's simply been uncommon in recent years and unheard of this year.

[forte408]

JB and Henry say NO. They aren't jumping on the model train? Have they finally learned?

[Stormchaser]

forte408, on Feb 17 2009, 08:54 PM, said:

JB and Henry say NO. They aren't jumping on the model train? Have they finally learned?

Actually that's not correct. JB believes there will be a major storm in the Northeast but it'll be form the northern clipper, not the southern wave Miller A potential. Not sure why JB's chosen this scenario as getting a major snow out of a clipper is about 100X harder than a Miller A.

As for HM I have no idea as I don't bother reading him.

[Stormchaser]

Problem here folks is the tendency this winter had been to bundle all the vorticity energy into one dominant, northern stream short wave. I need to see today's 12z depictions on the next couple cycles before even getting slightly interested. This split wave idea w/ the southern stream trailing is a bit suspicious. It's possible as I noted considering the 50-50 low develops via our mid week bomb -- but I'd rate the probability as low right now.

[icehater]

forte408, on Feb 17 2009, 08:54 PM, said:

JB and Henry say NO. They aren't jumping on the model train? Have they finally learned?

If you are a snow lover is there better news than that???

I guess for Robbbs, Storm, RGW, myself and a few others we'd like to throw LC in there as well but those two tip the scales enough.

[njblizzard]

icehater, on Feb 17 2009, 09:08 PM, said:

If you are a snow lover is there better news than that???

I guess for Robbbs, Storm, RGW, myself and a few others we'd like to throw LC in there as well but those two tip the scales enough.

This news just got me little interested....

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Feb 17 2009, 09:08 PM, said:

If you are a snow lover is there better news than that???

I guess for Robbbs, Storm, RGW, myself and a few others we'd like to throw LC in there as well but those two tip the scales enough.

BTW, I think this is the first storm of the winter that Steve D. is against. Wouldn't it be ironic if.. well you can fill in the rest.

[rgwp96]

icehater, on Feb 17 2009, 09:08 PM, said:

If you are a snow lover is there better news than that???

I guess for Robbbs, Storm, RGW, myself and a few others we'd like to throw LC in there as well but those two tip the scales enough.

even better, steve d is against it

[njblizzard]

Stormchaser, on Feb 17 2009, 09:52 PM, said:

BTW, I think this is the first storm of the winter that Steve D. is against. Wouldn't it be ironic if.. well you can fill in the rest.

The more these guys going against it, the more i am getting interested....we listen to these guys all winter honking for storms and they havent pan out so, maybe going against their idea will work....

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on Feb 17 2009, 09:52 PM, said:

BTW, I think this is the first storm of the winter that Steve D. is against. Wouldn't it be ironic if.. well you can fill in the rest.

I don't know how you can be for or against the storm right now. DT wrote an excellent piece on this storm on Eastern and none of the key datapoints can be corroborated or dismissed until after we get through the system that initiates tomorrow. Based on this years climo you'd dismiss any chance of it happening. Likewise you'd have dismissed chances of the great blizzards of 83 and 2006 based on those years climo profiles as well. that's the beauty of weather. When you dismiss it and write it all off you get a major slap in the face.

But JB is up to his usual shennanigans. Goes against the models and will undoubtedly say they'll have to catch up to his ideas (this time it's clipper re-development I guess) and then a few days after it's a done deal that he'll be wrong he'll say his ideas are in trouble. JB will forever be in search of the solution that he and no one else sees. It's called fools gold. Unfortunately JB has been slapped so many times by mother nature that he looks like a guy that was run over by an 18 wheeler, had the truck back up back over him in reverse for strike 2 and then roll forward over him a third time (strike 3).

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Feb 17 2009, 10:04 PM, said:

JB has been slapped so many times by mother nature that he looks like a guy that was run over by an 18 wheeler, had the truck back up back over him in reverse and then roll forward over him a third time for strike 3.

That's a keeper.

[njblizzard]

icehater, on Feb 17 2009, 10:04 PM, said:

JB has been slapped so many times by mother nature that he looks like a guy that was run over by an 18 wheeler, had the truck back up back over him in reverse for strike 2 and then roll forward over him a third time (strike 3).

You know somewhere LAB is trying to find pic or video of a 18 wheeler running somebody over .....lol

[icehater]

njblizzard, on Feb 17 2009, 10:18 PM, said:

You know somewhere LAB is trying to find pic or video of a 18 wheeler running somebody over .....lol

If Lab doesn't come up with one of his beauties I'm going to be diasppointed in him.

[rgwp96]

icehater, on Feb 17 2009, 10:30 PM, said:

If Lab doesn't come up with one of his beauties I'm going to be diasppointed in him.

lab is probably off line for the next few days.

[Stormchaser]

Some important points for this system IMO. The synoptics are certainly trending more favorable overall on modelling as we have our mid week storm rapidly intensifying and eventually becoming the 50-50 low in SE Canada. Consequently heights rise for a temporary time in sern Greenland; also note the western US ridge is more amplified and defined on recent runs. This is a pivotal aspect of the forecast as the stronger that ridge is, the more likely the downstream short wave will be able to "slow" and acquire a neutral/negative tilt as it approaches the east coast.

But the one glaring issue I see here is the tendency for the northern stream to dominate this winter -- most if not all cases this winter the two seperate entity scenario (one northern s/w and one southern stream s/w) did NOT work out. The vorticity energy congealed into one distinct short wave embedded within the northern jet -- and the progressive nature of the pattern aloft prevented any digging of these short waves along the eastern seaboard.

So this is what we need to monitor on future runs in particular -- the southern stream trailing short wave MUST be there as the only way this becomes a SECS/MECS for the Mid-north atlantic is via a Miller A type system IMO, not a reenergizing Miller B clipper. The latter may produce decent snows for eastern New england as we've seen in this northern stream dominate winter but not good for the rest of us snow starved folks.

I'd rate that southern s/w as #1 importance on the list. We've hardly seen any split in energy this winter so far (concentrated in the northern branch) so if this evolves as currently modelled on today's 12z ECMWF/GGEM, it'll certainly be an aberration from the past couple months.

Of secondary importance but definitely notable is the ridge axis orientation and amplitude in the west. Part of the reason the ECMWF was so bullish at 12z was IMO the phasing of the short waves south of Alaska which further pumped heights in the Western CONUS and western Canada. As long as that western ridge is strong, the downstream trough can dig far south thereby allowing the southern vort to explode on it's treck northeast.

The 50-50 should be there and is NOT what I'm worried about in terms of model variance. We should be thankful for this mid week bombing low as it will aid significantly in holding the upper ridge over the Lakes (surface cold air damming) and further permitting the upper flow to back along the east coast. Again the Western US ridge helps w/ this amplification as well.

All in all the potential is there but things can go wrong still (namely the nern stream being dominate).