10 replies to this topic

[robbbs]

I received an e-mail just now from Walt Drag, a great met at the NWS office in Taunton, with respect to what to expect in the coming week (admitedly, it's for my area -- West Milford NJ) so you may need to adjust accordingly for your location --
"you'll receive 1" powder sometime Sunday.  Models will probably all eventually trend to a major event ne usa or mid atlc middle of next week (22nd-23rd). EC is now a major winter storm for you and similar to 2/14...but we know it will end up different...just not sure how (n/s or inland runner-further e?). Bottom line...I am 70 per cent confident of 1 inch of snow or snow showers for you (high terrain) Sunday in a late developer that misses most of us except possibly the immediate nh/mass coast. I am 70 percent confident of a big pcpn event 2/22-23 but ptype, amts etc are a foolish guess on my part.
Then we warm up but even the next one that follows 3-5 days later at the end (end of month) might have enough blocking and therefore marginally cold enough air to produce wintry pcpn - but we will need blocking or excellent timing there. Basically it looks active with big events coming but the last huge cold shot we get will probably be Sunday night. After that its shallower cold and temps could avg abv normal (nighttime warmth) with snow/ice events."

[Stormchaser]

Inside scoop, eh? LOL. Let's hope the 12z Euro is 50 miles too far west with next week's storm (see map posted in my thread) as I-95 would then get into the action.

[bm55]

well at least it looks like an active pattern. just have to hope there is cold air in place during these events.

[robbbs]

Timing is everything in weather (as in life).

[rgwp96]

If first impressions mean anything, Walt busted big time yesterday with the back endsnow.  So I lost faith in him ;)

[robbbs]

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If first impressions mean anything, Walt busted big time yesterday with the back endsnow.  So I lost faith in him ;)

Rgwp96, he can't get them all correct. At least he didn't bust on NYC getting 40"+ snow (that was my bust all alone). LOL.

[rgwp96]

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If first impressions mean anything, Walt busted big time yesterday with the back endsnow.  So I lost faith in him ;)

Rgwp96, he can't get them all correct. At least he didn't bust on NYC getting 40"+ snow (that was my bust all alone). LOL.

yea but that was not your first prediciton that I read(lol) :D, hey you can still get to 40.  winters not done yet.

[icehater]

Robbbs - are Walt Drag and Mike Ekster in the same office now? If so that's some team.

[robbbs]

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Robbbs - are Walt Drag and Mike Ekster in the same office now? If so that's some team.

Ice, yes they're both at Taunton. When I heard that Ekster was leaving Upton to go to Taunton, I knew the quality of Upton's forecasts would suffer. There were a couple of bizzare forecasts by Upton early this winter -- do you remember on a Sunday evening in December when they forecasted 3" of snow overnight for NY metro yet it was obvious to everyone there was no chance of that?. Ekster posted on Eastern's board from Taunton saying there was no way that Upton's forecast would verify. Very unusual for a met from one NWS office to be that open about another NWS office's call. It was a big loss for Upton.

[listarz]

That's just super! I htought things were a little off throughout this past storm from Upton.

[robbbs]

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That's just super! I htought things were a little off throughout this past storm from Upton.

Listarz, this past storm was tough for all forecasters. However, Upton's area forecast discussion 3 nights before the storm said that the GFS was showing a complete miss and they were forecasting a flurry at most for our area. The reality is that by that point nearly the whole planet knew there was a storm potential except for Upton, which chose to model hug the GFS. No forecaster is right or wrong all the time but that was a big gaaf in forecasting common sense.