67 replies to this topic

[Stormchaser]

March will come in like a lion w/ the largest accumulating snow event since February 2006 for many of us. Throughout this winter we've been accustomed to the persistent northern stream dominance w/ little to no influence from the southern stream -- thus all the Miller B clippers and redeveloping lows, which have greatly favored New England. However, this should turn out to be our first Miller A-type snowstorm in awhile, as a partial phase occurs between the northern and southern stream short waves. I've mentioned this before but this is truly a "Thread the needle" event considering the following:

A) No downstream blocking over the north atlantic (i.e. negative NAO),
B) No 50-50 low.
C) PNA and EPO are in their negative and positive modalities respectively, generally unfavorable for east coast snowstorms.

With that being said, these atmospheric factors will play a role in limiting the snow totals from becoming excessive. First and foremost -- the development and porgression of the sern stream short wave to the VA capes and northeast to Benchmark position will occur within 24 hours; in other words a rather fast moving system, and this is an important point as I don't see any widespread historic (18"+) or even major amounts of snow (12"+). The lack of blocking will allow the northern jet to remain relatively quick when congealing with the southern branch energy. The bulk of the snow shoudl accumulate in a 12 hour time frame -- 00z Sunday evening to 12z Monday morning, with some additional light accumulations before and after that period.

But going more in-depth one will find this is NOT a light-moderate snowfall event as there's potential for impressive rates heading into Sunday night via strong 700mb omega. Note on virtually every model we have big time upward motion moving directly over the big cities; DCA-NYC w/ simultaneous improvement in snow growth regions. I'm expecting a deformation band to align in a SW-NE fashion, similar to February 2006, w/ the possibility of 1-2" per hour snowfall rates for several hours, between the 9pm Sunday-3am Monday time frame.


Note the partial phasing of the nern and sern streams on the 12z GFS. This is crucial as a full-phase would imply coastal-hugging storm and rainy result for the area.




18z NAM now catching up to the rest of global data WRT to less vort enery with the trailing short wave in central Canada. Thus the east coast storm is able to wrap-up further to the northwest.

As far as QPF totals -- as noted above there will be relatively fast propagating w/ the pcpn shield but impressive snowfall rates should aid in partially compensating. Surface temperatures should begin in the low 30s at the onset, falling rapidly into the mid 20s at the height of the storm, and low 20s by Monday mid morning IMO. Only zones to be concerned w/ mixing at the height are Cape May-Atlantic-Coastal Ocean counties in NJ and east of Islip of Long Island (similar to 12z ECMWF depiction).

Bottom line I like the idea of around 1.0" QPF for central/southern NJ into LI (+ OR - 0.10") with 0.5-1.0" for the rest of NJ save for Sussex county. Rapid drop-off in snow west of the DEL RIVER w/ sharp gradient.

[njblizzard]

I have to admit storm that i went straight for the map...lol...8-12 for me....nice...thanks for taking time and putting this for us...i hope it verifies and good luck...

[ericjcrash]

Great call & write up as always. Thanks Storm.

[bm55]

great write up and map,even though it s**** for me.

[Stormchaser]

Thanks guys, should be fun to track.

[forte408]

Thanks Storm. Ruggie just posted his too, you seem to be in the same ball park.

[Stormchaser]

forte408, on Feb 28 2009, 05:41 PM, said:

Thanks Storm. Ruggie just posted his too, you seem to be in the same ball park.

You're right, he has 8-12" too, but I think there will be a much sharper western cut-off than him.

[jimjesswill3]

Storm-someone on the weather channel said track still very
much in the air. He said the storm could ride straight up the coast
or just inland. If this happens wouldn't this give nwnj and nepa the
brunt of the storm? And what are the chances of this happening??

[rgwp96]

figures you would put yourself in the bullseye , but yea your call looks good.

[winterbird04]

Thanks Storm 8ish for me, i wish it was 12 but i'll take it i hope!!!!

[Kelli013]

As Etta James would be singing tonight living in C NJ. At last ....our time has finally come, our snowless days are over, we will see more than the few inches as the past few years have shown. I've stayed quiet all week, just reading, watching and as everyone else hoping , but I happy to report I have a smile ear to ear. Thanks everyone for your thoughts and posting the models. Thanks Storm as always, ice, robbbs and yourself our three voices of reason.

My husband was ready to kill me though, as on Monday I tried to move the snow-blower that has sat in our garage three + years, used only once I believe, after spending $700+, enduring many years of back breaking shoveling, to watch this huge piece of bright red metal Well as I tried to man handle sliding it a foot or so to the left, the tubeless tire fell off the rim. Who knew it was so difficult to have it put back on the rim. Live and learn, I won't be touching it again ever! Took awhile by finally someone took the time to fix it, its spit and shined ready to go!

Hope we all get the storm we've only dreamed about!

[njblizzard]

jimjesswill3, on Feb 28 2009, 05:44 PM, said:

Storm-someone on the weather channel said track still very
much in the air. He said the storm could ride straight up the coast
or just inland. If this happens wouldn't this give nwnj and nepa the
brunt of the storm? And what are the chances of this happening??

None..we wanna keep this storm all to ourself...lol...

[robbbs]

Storm -- Sorry; it's only a great map and call if it verifies.

[Stormchaser]

Thanks everyone, and yes Robbbs, I hope to see it verify, Lol.

[robbbs]

Stormchaser, on Feb 28 2009, 11:41 PM, said:

Thanks everyone, and yes Robbbs, I hope to see it verify, Lol.

Storm -- You know I'm not good with maps so I don't make them. However, I'm in general agreement with your areas and numbers, except I'm slightly more bullish and would increase across the board by a couple of inches. Of course, the 00z runs tonight can have much to say about that. Good luck.

[icehater]

robbbs, on Feb 28 2009, 07:04 PM, said:

Storm -- You know I'm not good with maps so I don't make them. However, I'm in general agreement with your areas and numbers, except I'm slightly more bullish and would increase across the board by a couple of inches. Of course, the 00z runs tonight can have much to say about that. Good luck.

Agree Robbbs. I'm expecting greater snows then Storms map. I agree with the splits, just not the amounts.

[Stormchaser]

robbbs, on Feb 28 2009, 07:04 PM, said:

Storm -- You know I'm not good with maps so I don't make them. However, I'm in general agreement with your areas and numbers, except I'm slightly more bullish and would increase across the board by a couple of inches. Of course, the 00z runs tonight can have much to say about that. Good luck.

icehater, on Feb 28 2009, 07:15 PM, said:

Agree Robbbs. I'm expecting greater snows then Storms map. I agree with the splits, just not the amounts.

Guys -- I wouldn't be surprised to see higher totals but I think it's best to go relatively safe at this juncture. If things look more juicy by 12z tomorrow maybe I'll update the maps. The main limiting factor IMO is the speed of this system, but we'll get amazing rates for several hours probably.

[weatherbowl]

It's nice to be in the area of greatest snowfall potential. The only thing that concerns me out here is the possibility of sleet holding down the numbers. Either way it looks good.

[Kelli013]

Stormchaser, on Feb 28 2009, 07:21 PM, said:

Guys -- I wouldn't be surprised to see higher totals but I think it's best to go relatively safe at this juncture. If things look more juicy by 12z tomorrow maybe I'll update the maps. The main limiting factor IMO is the speed of this system, but we'll get amazing rates for several hours probably.

Too bad it shows the most significant snowfall will be during the midnight to sunrise time frame where accumulations will be at their highest per hour. I actually prefer watching it fall, than the final totals. Much rather a daytime storm, as seeing it fall is my biggest joy, as for most of you it's the snow total. I understand that NW has temps that always hold their totals more than a few days unlike us, as we in C NJ, at least in my area watch the immediate meltdown. Looks like a very sleepless night for some on Sunday. With my limited knowledge of tracks and models, I'm thinking my area is 11+. If this storm pans out might have to give a rating of B-, as I had Bigger hopes for Feb. to make up for this dismal winter in my area.

[bm55]

Kelli013, on Feb 28 2009, 07:40 PM, said:

Too bad it shows the most significant snowfall will be during the midnight to sunrise time frame where accumulations will be at their highest per hour. I actually prefer watching it fall, than the final totals. Much rather a daytime storm, as seeing it fall is my biggest joy, as for most of you it's the snow total. I understand that NW has temps that always hold their totals more than a few days unlike us, as we in C NJ, at least in my area watch the immediate meltdown. Looks like a very sleepless night for some on Sunday. With my limited knowledge of tracks and models, I'm thinking my area is 11+. If this storm pans out might have to give a rating of B-, as I had Bigger hopes for Feb. to make up for this dismal winter in my area.

i personally enjoy watching the snow fall as opposed to waking up and it's already there,although we have no choice. the way this winter has been i will settle for anything.