36 replies to this topic

[doncat]

This past astronomical winter was the driest on record at this station (28 years). Total precipitation was 5.22 in. beating the old record of 5.61 in.

[robbbs]

doncat, on Mar 21 2009, 06:45 PM, said:

This past astronomical winter was the driest on record at this station (28 years). Total precipitation was 5.22 in. beating the old record of 5.61 in.

It's been practically a drought for the past three months. If you believe in patterns typically lasting only for limited periods, I hope this doesn't lead to a reversal and a lot of rain just as we get into the warm season and bbq and beach time.

[satellite_eyes]

I don't like to use the drought word until a good 6 months have gone by. I'm sure things will eventually even out. Just hopefully not when we are supposed to have nice weather.

[NittanyLion]

Drought predicted to develop:

[GameOfLove]

NWS Upton put out a HWO Saturday afternoon saying a Red Flag Warning might be needed.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2009

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-222045-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
445 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO FIRE GROWTH. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND EVENTUAL RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$

[icehater]

We've had the southern stream cut-off the entire winter. In fact the early March storm was, as far as I can remember, the only significant southern storm of the whole winter that struck land areas, and it was very limited in coverage and only produced 1"+ qpf in tiny zones. The reason is the displaced northern jet that we had all winter. So I think this drought like winter is not just here but across vast stretchesof the US. It seemed that you never even heard of any big storms striking the Rockies (Denver was hardly ever discussed in fact) or Sierras. Certainly much of the midwest into the Ohio valley, below the northen tier had bad snow years and there wasn't much rain around either. Can anyone even rememberr the last 1"+ rainstorm? So I don't think this is a local pattern change that leads to an abundance of precip either. Someone may get lucky but the vastness of this dry winter is too big to overcome easily. Even local changes to an abundance of precip usually needs to happen within the seasons, for example winter or summer. You can make up for a real dry May -July with a very wet late summer to mid Autum season. But you rarely make up for dry winters if you switch gears into a summer jet-flow. So if we don't get better dynamics soon we are in water trouble. I mainly remember dry winters leading to dry summers (often quite warm, especially early) and then maybe late summer to autumn you get the precip flowing well again. We'll see. But I think we can expect a lot of red flag warnings and perhaps restrictions on watering before too much longer. Remember this was, as far as I'm concerned, an uneventful boring winter, not just here but across much of the country thanks to that displaced northern jet crushing the southern stream and also to a large extent the pac-jet..

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Mar 22 2009, 11:46 AM, said:

We've had the southern stream cut-off the entire winter. In fact the early March storm was, as far as I can remember, the only significant southern storm of the whole winter that struck land areas, and it was very limited in coverage and only produced 1"+ qpf in tiny zones. The reason is the displaced northern jet that we had all winter. So I think this drought like winter is not just here but across vast stretchesof the US. It seemed that you never even heard of any big storms striking the Rockies (Denver was hardly ever discussed in fact) or Sierras. Certainly much of the midwest into the Ohio valley, below the northen tier had bad snow years and there wasn't much rain around either. Can anyone even rememberr the last 1"+ rainstorm? So I don't think this is a local pattern change that leads to an abundance of precip either. Someone may get lucky but the vastness of this dry winter is too big to overcome easily. Even local changes to an abundance of precip usually needs to happen within the seasons, for example winter or summer. You can make up for a real dry May -July with a very wet late summer to mid Autum season. But you rarely make up for dry winters if you switch gears into a summer jet-flow. So if we don't get better dynamics soon we are in water trouble. I mainly remember dry winters leading to dry summers (often quite warm, especially early) and then maybe late summer to autumn you get the precip flowing well again. We'll see. But I think we can expect a lot of red flag warnings and perhaps restrictions on watering before too much longer. Remember this was, as far as I'm concerned, an uneventful boring winter, not just here but across much of the country thanks to that displaced northern jet crushing the southern stream and also to a large extent the pac-jet..

Well said. This will be a big key in the forecast for the summer; the next month or so is very important in establishing trends WRT temps/precip. As April patterns are often directly correlated to summer whereas May is usually inversely correlated. In other words if we have a warm / dry April, probabilities increase quite dramatically for such a regime throughout the summer months. Obviously it's not as cut and dry as that but it's one of the myriad of factors.

[satellite_eyes]

Interesting thoughts Ice. I do think the midwest had a very good start to winter (December into early January I think) but since then it has shut down. I remember them getting crushed over and over last winter and i was thinking here they go again. Also it seems like the SE has been at least getting a normal amount of rain lately. As far as the Rockies while they weren't snow starved they were defiitely below normal. Don't remember hearing much at all about SW snow. The Pac NW seemed to do the best and the Siera Nevadas had a decent stretch towards the end of winter but overall i'm sure they are below normal. The southern part of the Sieras had very few storms from what i remember and were probably well below normal in terms of rain or snow.

[NittanyLion]

This winter's Precipitation Percent of normal:



Much of the nation was dry as Ice pointed out, except the upper midwest.

[satellite_eyes]

Nitt - how much snow is left on the ground at school?

[NittanyLion]

satellite_eyes, on Mar 22 2009, 08:01 PM, said:

Nitt - how much snow is left on the ground at school?

Slowly melting away now. Some grass is actually visible, but generally around 10 inches, obviously more in piles.

[icehater]

NittanyLion, on Mar 22 2009, 07:50 PM, said:

This winter's Precipitation Percent of normal:



Much of the nation was dry as Ice pointed out, except the upper midwest.

And the area in the midwest that looks to be normal got there recently with the very heavy rains that caused serious widespread flooding. Otherwise that area was dry most of the winter and I doubt they had much snow. Chicago on north did well with snow, especially early on. Across the far northern areas, Duluth, International Falls back thru Northern Dakota, it was a great snow year all the way through.

[Stormchaser]

This winter was about normal / slightly below in precip for my area. I had 6"+ of rain in December and 3-4" in January; it's February and March that have been record dry.

So reservoirs are still plenty high across the area; if the dry pattern persists into April/May then we'll have some issues but I'm not too worried right now.

In fact some latest indications suggest this dry regime may switch around within the next couple weeks (looks colder than normal as well through early april BTW).

[Mike_The_Golfer]

NYC's reservoir level is actually at 93.1%. Normal is 90.6%.

[ericjcrash]

Mike_The_Golfer, on Mar 22 2009, 10:30 PM, said:

NYC's reservoir level is actually at 93.1%. Normal is 90.6%.

Pepacton?

[Mike_The_Golfer]

ericjcrash, on Mar 22 2009, 10:32 PM, said:

Pepacton?

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_...vels_wide.shtml

[vascudave]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
2 products issued by NWS for: Bridgewater NJ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-241000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
410 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND,
DELAWARE AND PARTS OF NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, THERE IS A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRES TODAY.

THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TODAY FALL JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA FOR NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND MARYLAND. AS A
RESULT, NO WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. HOWEVER, THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
433 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-240000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
433 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

...ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, THERE IS A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRES TODAY.

THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TODAY FALL JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA FOR NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND MARYLAND. AS A
RESULT, NO WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. HOWEVER, THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

$$

RPW





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[LongIslandWthr]

Any reports of brush fires yet? Nada out here

[LongIslandWthr]

The last red-flag warning issued for Long Island was May 15, 2007,

[lab94]

LongIslandWthr, on Mar 23 2009, 03:24 PM, said:

Any reports of brush fires yet? Nada out here

Yes, one here in town (small)

Go down to fire company 2 and click on the last one

http://www.rownetco....l/local_weather