22 replies to this topic

[mesocyclone]

[img width=600 height=449]http://img178.images...7628/heyxc8.png[/img]

Perked my interest a little bit but..I'd like to see a High Pressure or some Upstream Support/Blocking before I get onboard..

[robbbs]

And so it begins.

[mesocyclone]

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And so it begins.

Was thinking the same thing. You just cant get away form hobby can you..

Either way, RH field indicates the storm is a bit too far east for MAJOR snows but..the set up is O-K i guess.

[yankee2274]

where does that put the temps?

[snowgods0813]

Thats what they were saying about the last storm a week away, it was to far south and east then well u know the rest!!!! lol

[icehater]

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[img width=600 height=449]http://img178.images...7628/heyxc8.png[/img]

Perked my interest a little bit but..I'd like to see a High Pressure or some Upstream Support/Blocking before I get onboard..

Ah - but do we have an 850MB Low to worry about. Haven't checked. Great location if there's no other complexities like 2 days ago.

[Stormchaser]

The storm may be too far east for major snows -- but any further west and a good deal of the pcpn is rain along the I-95 corridor. We're going to need an extremely dynamic low, with plenty of upper-support, preferrably a negatively tilted trough, to get a decent snowfall on the coastal plain. High pressure is retreating; coupled with a lack of greenland blocking, we'll need a miracle for it to occur. Taken verbatim the ECMWF solution is rain to heavy snow with 850mb temps crashing behind the low. Would still suggest a significant snow for locations NW of NYC. Most important is the track is being shown to our SE -- that's good news as it implies there's a chance this thing doesn't hug the coast.

[Stormchaser]

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[img width=600 height=449]http://img178.images...7628/heyxc8.png[/img]

Perked my interest a little bit but..I'd like to see a High Pressure or some Upstream Support/Blocking before I get onboard..

That's a beautiful map -- I'm going to save it and repost it seven days from now. We'll see if the Euro can nail another one.

[mesocyclone]

Regarding the 850 Comment-

The temps you see on the map are the 850 temperatures. The low is a bit too far east for anything major, but any further west and we have a rainstorm.

[Stormchaser]

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And so it begins.

Oh well, I guess I'm not sleeping for another week. LOL.

[icehater]

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Regarding the 850 Comment-

The temps you see on the map are the 850 temperatures. The low is a bit too far east for anything major, but any further west and we have a rainstorm.

So a perfect storm poition and no cold air vs perfect cold air and a horrendous set-up on the past storm. Repeat after me:

This is not our winter
This is not our winter
This is not our winter

We better have a great summer.

[Stormchaser]

Quote

Quote

Regarding the 850 Comment-

The temps you see on the map are the 850 temperatures. The low is a bit too far east for anything major, but any further west and we have a rainstorm.

So a perfect storm poition and no cold air vs perfect cold air and a horrendous set-up on the past storm. Repeat after me:

This is not our winter
This is not our winter
This is not our winter

We better have a great summer.

Ice - nice avatar.

[yankee2274]

So, basically rainstorm or light snow, right? You won't have to lose sleep over this one. Sounds like there wont be too much to talk about.

[icehater]

Quote

Quote

Quote

Regarding the 850 Comment-

The temps you see on the map are the 850 temperatures. The low is a bit too far east for anything major, but any further west and we have a rainstorm.

So a perfect storm poition and no cold air vs perfect cold air and a horrendous set-up on the past storm. Repeat after me:

This is not our winter
This is not our winter
This is not our winter

We better have a great summer.

Ice - nice avatar.

Maybe it'll bring us luck - that's the January 21, 2005 storm. I put that on a few Christmas cards in December 2005 and folks loved it.

[icehater]

Storm.

here's a nicer view


[img width=600 height=398]http://i19.tinypic.com/44hdirs.jpg[/img]

[Virgaman]

is there any chance this storm can get strong enough to produce its own cold air?

[Stormchaser]

Thanks for sharing Ice, nice pic.

Beautiful pines by the way -- I have some real nice blue spruce trees in my yard; hopefully they look ok after all the ice melts off.

[Stormchaser]

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is there any chance this storm can get strong enough to produce its own cold air?

Yes - that's what the 12z Euro is showing. Cold air is manufactured dynamically since there's no fresh polar airmass in place prior to the storm.

[njblizzard]

The winter we are having will give us rain with 34 degree...

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[icehater]

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Thanks for sharing Ice, nice pic.

Beautiful pines by the way -- I have some real nice blue spruce trees in my yard; hopefully they look ok after all the ice melts off.

Spruce are great. Those are Norways in back and Colorado Blues in front.